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This district is R+0. Gary has over $200k CoH, roughly half what the Democrat spent last year. In fact last year's nominee performed below the Democratic base vote.
The AFL-CIO made their earliest congressional endorsement ever in support of Gary.
The League of Conservation Voters made Joe Knollenberg the 2nd addition to the "Dirty Dozen" list, second only to James Inhofe!
There is a lot of attention on this district, which is ready to go Democratic.
I'm proud to work for Gary Peters, because Joe Knollenberg is out of touch.
by Jordan LFW on Thu Oct 25, 2007 at 05:16:59 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
Anyone try to evaluate percentages before. I think there's a reason why the pros use categories (eg, tossup, lean dem, etc.), because this is way too inexact a science to try to nail things with such specifity.
Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News
by DavidNYC on Thu Oct 25, 2007 at 05:29:23 PM PDT
comment, I'm a statistician.
Of course, I could make it less specific, rank each seat as tossup (.5 chance of switching) and so on, but I think it's possible to get more specific than that. They'd still be just estimates, of course.
Now up: What are you reading?
by plf515 on Fri Oct 26, 2007 at 03:39:32 AM PDT
Have you checked past results to see if a PVI of 0 correlates with a 10% incumbency loss rate?
by DavidNYC on Fri Oct 26, 2007 at 09:41:40 PM PDT
I think I am about right, but I need to look at more data. In a typical post-World War 2 house election, about 5% of incumbents who run, lose. But I have to look at data for PVI numbers. Most congressmen run in districts that have PVIs favorable to their own party, but I don't know how favorable.
by plf515 on Sat Oct 27, 2007 at 04:08:08 AM PDT
It's much truer of Republicans than Democrats. After 2006, only 8 Republicans sit in districts won by Kerry. I think it's 60 Dems in Bush districts.
by DavidNYC on Sat Oct 27, 2007 at 09:10:03 PM PDT
wide narrow
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