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European Tribune / The Oil Drum / EA2020
by Jerome a Paris on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 08:31:31 AM PDT
as always, Jerome.
We Americans are going to have to learn that we don't rule the roost any more.
by JoeW on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 08:36:06 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
How do you know a Republican is lying? Ask one: If the Republicans can lower gas prices for 60 days before an election, why won't they do it all the time?
by ca democrat on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:42:46 AM PDT
out of the past 28. That's Reagan and both Bushes. You could even make a case for 26 of the past 28 if you include the 6 years the GOP controlled both houses of Congress during Clinton's terms of office.
"Iraq: the bravest 1% fighting for the richest 1%." ~ An Unknown Kossack.
by Neon Vincent on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 11:27:12 AM PDT
Clinton's budget balancing was part of the same policy as Reagan's to save the world for capital at the expense of labor.
by unclejohn on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 12:28:34 PM PDT
all was not perfect but dammit, the unemployment rate dropped massively.
Where I live in Portland, there were "Help Wanted" signs on every frigging business and when you went to see a movie, there were always companies advertising for help.
Let's support our candidate in the primary and if he/she loses, let's think of John Roberts and Sam Alito when we think of John McCain.
by Dave from Oregon on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 05:47:08 PM PDT
is Bill Clinton thought of in the same light as a Republican. It's fucking ridiculous, to be honest.
Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!
by Asak on Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 12:00:41 AM PDT
and was actually paying off the national debt rather than piling it on.
by Dave from Oregon on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 05:45:17 PM PDT
From 1996 to 2000, divided goverment was able to keep most of the worst fiscal impulses of both sides in check. As for the impeachment--rolls eyes--note I said fiscal issues. ]:-}
by Neon Vincent on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 05:59:09 PM PDT
aside from that little impeachment things, he kept them under control. My joy in seeing Lott, Hastert, DeLay, Gingrich, et all in retirement is boundless. Of course, there are several others whose retirement would be welcome but that is for next November...
by Dave from Oregon on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 07:53:58 PM PDT
Help Hillary make history today! :-)
by atdnext on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 08:39:32 AM PDT
I love Jerome but those spare euros I have left over from previous trips to the Continent are too damn valuable now!
I'm not part of a redneck agenda - Green Day Neither is California High Speed Rail
by eugene on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:50:28 AM PDT
(http://ec.europa.eu/euro/entry.html) every year or so. Europeans have this nasty habit of reissuing their banknotes every several years, and invalidating the previous issues. Sooner or later they'll do this with paper Euros as well, I suppose.
by corvo on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:57:32 AM PDT
to the day they started printing them in that peachy color. Well, at least they still print it on Crane's 100% rag paper. The dollar may not be strong but at least it'll make it through the washing machine.
by northsylvania on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 10:12:09 AM PDT
You're acting like it's risky to keep Euro notes around, or that Europeans are in the habit of screwing people out of their money. All of the Euro-zone countries continue to honor their old pre-Euro currencies, at least for banknotes, with some countries imposing a 2012 deadline (that is, ten years after the conversion).
See Details.
by Joe Buck on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 01:37:48 PM PDT
to the National Bank of the country.
Depending on the country, the transition period would be 18 months to 5 years, and the biggest reason for invalidating the old notes was to frustrate counterfeiting.
But an American, who has the historical expectation of his paper currency's being accepted as valid in perpetuity, is not well served by buying another country's paper and keeping it under his pillow for a decade or two.
by corvo on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 02:21:00 PM PDT
to keep any kind of currency under your pillow for a decade or two...if nothing else, inflation will make it worth much less. Better to keep it in an FDIC insured account where it will earn interest...particularly the online banks like INGDirect that pay a decent rate of return.
"All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone
by Alice in Florida on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 03:31:20 PM PDT
Certainly if the US economy -- and dollar -- start recovering, one would be wise to sell one's paper Euros and realize a nice profit. As long as the dollar keeps falling against the Euro, however, holding on to the Euros is smart, especially if the devaluation rate exceeds the CD/money market rate.
This much said, paper burns, of course.
by corvo on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 03:40:11 PM PDT
it's not like americans invented usury. you could always deposit your euros into a european bank account.
I am further of the opinion that the President must be impeached and removed from office!
by UntimelyRippd on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 06:48:50 PM PDT
Under pressure from -- you guessed it -- Uncle Sam, most European countries won't allow their banks to open personal accounts for people who aren't residents.
I know; I've tried. Should've kept the ones I had when I lived there.
by corvo on Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 09:21:51 AM PDT
by UntimelyRippd on Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 05:44:11 PM PDT
how long the current paper Euro series will remain legal tender after it is inevitably replaced by the next series, which is what I was talking about.
by corvo on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 02:26:33 PM PDT
can get I can always sell it for silver and gold
Military & Veterans: Politics for the deserving aka Mike Bailey
by testvet6778 on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 08:50:21 AM PDT
That's all I got at the moment, Jerome.
I like your analysis, and I think the euro has a huge benefit (as the eurozone holds a huge advantage), which I think is patience.
America, as an economic unit, is way too impatient. In such a hurry to beat the long term averages, we cook up all kinds of schemes that increase the variance while decreasing the trend. Of course, some people make it big. In a room of a million people, all flipping fair coins, the chances are very high that a few of them will flip 10 heads in a row.
Europe has more patience. Some would also say less innovation, more xenophobia as well. But travel to any european city and see the incredible diversity of small specialized shops that have been in business, stably, profitably, for generations. They're not beating the "e myth" of entrepreneurship, but they are making a reasonable living.
I think the combination of the increasing debt in the gov't, in trade imbalance, and with each citizen-consumer, are coming together to send the dollar on the way of the dodobird.
(-8.00,-7.85) "Jesus Christ was the first nonviolent revolutionary." --S. Stills
by bubbanomics on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 08:59:16 AM PDT
but would rather focus on specific policies. The dollar has been abused in recent times. Benign neglect, which could be easily tolerated, has turned into outright looting, and the US ability to borrow in dollars from abroad has been abused.
The result will be either the empoverishing of the US middle classes (burdened by massive future debt), a massive theft from foreign currencies (a devaluation being a debt default, and effectively running away with their money), or a combination of both. But in the meantime, a few have made out like pigs.
And that was a feature of recent macro policy, not a bug.
by Jerome a Paris on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:10:13 AM PDT
Especially China, holding so much US debt. I can't believe the gall of US policy makers calling for China to revalue so rapidly when it would kill Chinese motivation to buy our debt. Do they think that the trade balance will tip in such a way to compensate? I don't understand that calculation at all.
by bubbanomics on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:22:04 AM PDT
will probably come home sooner or later. Either to buy our assets, or to buy our food. If the latter, let's hope they leave some for us.
by corvo on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:24:43 AM PDT
i assume it's because they've all bet on the yuan in the currency markets or something.
surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat
by wu ming on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:10:08 PM PDT
c'est vrai mon ami.
"The truth shall set you free - but first it'll piss you off." Gloria Steinem
Iraq Moratorium
by One Pissed Off Liberal on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:43:52 AM PDT
by bubbanomics on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:47:10 AM PDT
Follow the money. It's getting away.
by bablhous on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 04:56:08 PM PDT
via Matt Groenig. Wish I were so well written as is a Simpsons episode.
by bubbanomics on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 06:26:17 PM PDT
says it all. I see the preferences for asset value increases and financial shenanigans anecdotally just as much as I read about them in the paper. In one paragraph, you summarized this country's defining ethos of the past 28 years.
Funny thing is, letting Gore continue Clinton's policies for another 8 years would've worked almost as well in the short term and better in the long term for the favored few. What's the point of starving the goose for 8 years as you steal its golden eggs if the goose dies in the process? If these guys haven't killed the goose, they've surely put it on life support.
Short-sightedness, arrogance, opportunism, and greed make for a lethal combination.
Some men see things as they are and ask why. I see things that never were and ask why not?
by RFK Lives on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 11:43:17 AM PDT
They've been eating the meat and sucking the marrow for years - it was a big goose.
Now that they've just about finished with it, we're getting the thin broth made from the cleaned bones.
And they want us to thank them for it.
by bablhous on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 04:58:34 PM PDT
I've been thinking about it this way: Sell out America, take a cut as our equity goes out the door, get rich!
You have to go to Harvard and get an MBA to know how to do this, and go to U of Chicago and study economics to know why it would be a good thing to do. The rest of us poor saps, who are just trying to do something useful, are the losers.
by DBunn on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 07:30:38 PM PDT
And you know what they say about a dollar: that and another 4 dollars will get you a cup of coffee.
Uh, yeah.
by Morlock on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:09:51 AM PDT
by having a portion of your finances in Euros.
by Barry Leonardini on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:19:38 AM PDT
in 2001 by buying Japanese and European stocks.
Every one of them is up a lot.
by SingleVoter on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:57:40 AM PDT
Don't have that much....
by divineorder on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 10:10:48 AM PDT
mutual funds. After an initial buy-in, small amounts can be invested monthly .
by Barry Leonardini on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 10:20:54 AM PDT
You can buy FDIC-insured CDs in foreign currencies (including Euros) or in a basket of foreign currencies, metals, foreign stocks, etc., all on-line.
-7.75, -7.64 www.politicalcompass.org "When the intellectual history of this era is finally written, it will scarcely be believable." -- Noam Chomsky
by scorponic on Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 12:27:34 AM PDT
This is what countries who are turning to the Euro are doing.
I have a big chunk of my money invested in countries who don't tie their currency to the dollar. If I pick wisely, I get a double boost as the value of the dollar sinks.
As I understand it, so far China has tied their currency to ours to keep their exports competitive. If they stop doing this, our interest rates will go up, and the cost to service our public debt will eat a bigger whole in our Federal budget.
If China were to decide to tie their currency to Euros, directing their trade to Europe rather than to the US, I predict the US would go the way of the Soviet Union, and Osama will be able to claim victory over another superpower.
Bush Administration: Proving the saying, "You can fool most of the people some of the time, and 30% 24% 19% all the time."
by Helpless on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 11:25:31 AM PDT
after Al-qaeda takes over France. yet another night of major riots. Wow!
by YoursTruly on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 11:25:34 AM PDT
are al Qaeda supporters? That's quite a leap.
Care to back up that little gem of wisdom?
don't always believe what you think...
by claude on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 12:26:35 PM PDT
These are not children holding up signs, these are people attempting murder and meyhem.
If you think people with guns shooting at other people with guns is "demonstrating for social justice" then maybe the invasion of Iraq was just that.
Jeez!
by YoursTruly on Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 06:34:03 AM PDT
what does that have to do with al Qaeda? Even if they are all mere thugs, with no legitimate grievances, how do you arrive at this:
after Al-qaeda takes over France
?
by claude on Thu Nov 29, 2007 at 07:38:25 PM PDT
Next thing you knew, the N's had taken over America. LOL! Get real.
by unclejohn on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 12:35:18 PM PDT
Radical Islam is very popular in the parisian suburbs, and AQ has always been for shooting cops.
The riots aren't about social justice, they're about trying to overthrow the government.
by YoursTruly on Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 06:31:59 AM PDT
... and less regulation.
Oh, wait, that's how we got into this sinking boat.
Thanks a lot, ya fucking Republicans!
by brentmack on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 09:53:41 AM PDT
and the dumbfcks who voted them in are starving and freezing in their trailer houses...
by divineorder on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 10:12:08 AM PDT
more of the same.
by corvo on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 10:13:47 AM PDT
trailor houses that FEMA ended up having $200,000 in each of them by the time they paid to have the septic tank cleaned a lot and other miscellaneous things done to them?
This government doesn't deserve to be in charge of anything to do with money.
The value of our dollar is down 36% since 2002. They try to say that it doesn't matter because we don't buy overseas, but it does because some of what we buy comes from overseas like oil and some materials so it increases prices here.
by relentless on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 03:22:06 PM PDT
on Project Scapegoat, where they tell Americans they can't have nice things anymore because foreigners sabotaged our currency (helped by the Democrats of course). Look what they did to George Washington! Let's nuke their asses!
In the next phase we go from buying stuff from other countries in our own currency to outright stealing what we want. Oil, natural resources... soon we'll send an expeditionary force to Japan to jack some cars.
And now a word from the National Paint, Varnish and Lacquer Association
by Olds88 on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 11:18:22 AM PDT
I hear there's oil in it. How do those Canucks get it out? Never mind, we'll figure that out later.
I was a Republican until they lost their minds, The word 'conservative' means 'discriminatory,' ... It's a form of political discrimination. --- Charles Barkley
by Kimball Cross on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 12:18:38 PM PDT
link
and there are better extraction methods coming. (I know a guy...) And we have lots of oil sands of our own, but they're in places that can't be run at a profit for Exxon, et al. So, we won't be seeing any oil sand extraction plants here soon. Instead, we'll drill ANWAR.
"The road to gas chambers starts when good people find excuses to justify torture and murder. Feinstein and Schumer are enablers."- Larry Johnson -8.25, -6.21
by Jacques on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 08:58:02 PM PDT
tax cuts, they just got the AMT.
Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities-Voltaire
by hairspray on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 08:42:54 PM PDT
I often find myself wishing that the FMI had some independent oversight of US economic policy.
It works to force poor countries to behave responsibly; why not force us to behave responsibly?
Je suis inondé de déesses
by Marc in KS on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 10:04:47 AM PDT
the good guys what to do. Only the "Club Med" and other brown people who obviously don't know what's best for them.
by Jerome a Paris on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 10:50:54 AM PDT
Sucks. This infuriates me. Here we are, headed toward the banana-est of banana republic-ness, and not a peep from the FMI.
If we were a country of brown people, they'd be screaming and canceling our credit.
by Marc in KS on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 11:57:22 AM PDT
the packaging and spin that are being reverse engineered by the surprised hacks in Washington DC. This isn't the outcome that the AEI had in mind when it sought huge ill-transparent federal budgets, a costly stupid war for oil, massive monetary expansion and corruption at every level of Federal expenditure.
Some folks in Washington never learn that in a globalised economy, action invites reaction. Devaluing the dollar invites flight to stronger currency and central banks with established integrity.
I have some contracts in euros, some in pounds and none in dollars. I'm going to try to keep it that way . . .
"Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?" - Abraham Lincoln
by LondonYank on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 10:30:09 AM PDT
Namaste!
I'm not going anywhere. I'm standing up, which is how one speaks in opposition in a civilized world. - Ainsley Hayes
by jillian on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 10:38:46 AM PDT
that's funny, no hysterical... how transparent can these idiots get and still have the nerve to publish the concern trolling?
they "the bad guys" have so much arrogance and disdain that they actually think we buy this crap.
we just don't know what to do about this crap, but when we figure that out, they better watch out.
"Well we don't rent pigs and I figure it's better to say it right out front because a man that does like to rent pigs is... he's hard to stop" Gus McCrae
by pfiore8 on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 11:33:05 AM PDT
However, it has a strong economy and trade balance behind it.
Why do I say it is flawed? Because responsibility for the currency is shared. For example, Spain has a huge current account deficit (like America). It also has a housing bubble that is starting to burst (like America). It also has a problem of not having large foreign currency reserves (like America). However, Spain is in the euro-zone. So if foreign investors suddenly leave Spain, thus depleting Spain's currency reserves then Spain will have a currency crisis. Normally this means that Spain will have to devalue its currency. But wait. Spain's currency is also Germany's currency. Does that mean that Germany will have to bail out Spain? Not likely to happen. Spain can't devalue its currency in that event, and there is no instrument in place to bail out Spain. I don't know what will happen when/if something like this takes place. But I bet foreign investors will get spooked.
Greece and Portugal also have similar problems and are in the euro-zone.
Warning: ambitious careerists may now be disguised as "progressives."
by gjohnsit on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 11:41:25 AM PDT
that's been the traditional argument against the euro - all the way back to the early 90s.
Spain is playing catch up, for a long time with money from the core European countries, and has been investing (not spending, investing) in its infrastructure massively in the past 20 years: roads, high speed trains, networks, wind power, etc... and it has enjoyedrecord growth.
So: the bubble is there, but to some extent reflects fast growth; the deficit is there, but reflects smart investment, and European solidarity exists and will continue. That's what reading the English-language press will never convey to you: Europe is fundamentally a political project, not an economic one.
The euro will not fail and the eurozone will not break up.
by Jerome a Paris on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 01:17:01 PM PDT
the deficit is there, but reflects smart investment,
By every measure, Spain has built more residential houses than it needs, and prices have gone up many times faster than incomes have. If you think that Spain doesn't have a housing bubble then you are unaware of the facts of the matter.
But beyond that, Spain's current account deficit is even larger than America's as a percentage of GDP. It's the current account deficit that is the main reason for the fall in the dollar.
Spain might bounce back despite the malinvest. But then the dollar might bounce back as well. I've haven't seen a good reason for either to happen.
by gjohnsit on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 02:29:23 PM PDT
Spanish houses. If they've got too many of them. :-)
by corvo on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 02:31:12 PM PDT
Prices have gone up a lot more than incomes, indeed, and things do look bubbly.
But on the other hand, you've had quite brutal social changes (smaller households) and massive immigration recently.
While the Spanish current account deficit is heavy, it is partly compensated by tourism inflows, and it remains relatively small compared to the eurozone's overall balance. Is it sustainable within the eurozone? Everything suggests that it is, notwithstanding all the fantaisies generated in London.
by Jerome a Paris on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 02:33:14 PM PDT
surplus today superávit del Estado-El Pais-. It seems like they are doing O.K. at managing their finances. Also a lot of those properties you mention are being bought by other Europeans that seem to like to spend time in Spain, therefore part of the bubble.
by basquebob on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 07:27:04 PM PDT
I don't believe in the "greater fool" theory working for long. People talked have been talking about immigrants coming to America and buying our over-priced houses so the Baby Boomers can retire in comfort. Like Spain, you eventually run out of fools that are even bigger than you.
by gjohnsit on Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 01:13:13 PM PDT
But there are plenty of Europeans who will be happy to retire in Spain.
by Asak on Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 12:02:25 AM PDT
And yet California home prices are dropping through the floor. The "greater fool" theory doesn't work.
by gjohnsit on Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 01:14:15 PM PDT
I agree. According to Stan Goff, "the Euro will never take over the U.S. dollar because it's a satellite currency" [to the dollar].
Europe: fragmented, with its own problems. I believe Europe as a whole, while they obviously have done a better job than the US, particularly with energy, they still seem to be a satellite of the U.S. When the US Subprime Hydra reared its ugly head in August, notice it first appeared in Germany. The German bank IKB gave out signs of distress. Next: the french bank PNB Paribas was the next one in line at the Guillotine. In September: UK Bank Northern Rock has a run on its bank. The Bank of England gets sucked into the Vortex. A big part of Europe now seems to be in the middle of Spring Cleaning, wiping out Millions + Billions of Losses to their balance sheets.
Headline in Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter: "We have a housing bubble which is worse than the U.S." . (I find that truly hard to believe) The article singles out Spain, the U.K., Denmark and Sweden as the most vulnerable right now. Also France but not as serious as the other 4. I just don't see Europe as taking over in any kind of leadership position, with the U.S. following in the Caboose. Europe has typically been fragmented, unable to agree on many issues. The US pounced on that vulnerability. As the US tide sinks, Europe will sink right along with it.
by Cliss on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 01:31:38 PM PDT
The article singles out Spain, the U.K., Denmark and Sweden as the most vulnerable right now.
Spain and the UK are well known. I've also heard Ireland, Australia, and China. Denmark and Sweden are news to me.
by gjohnsit on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 02:31:43 PM PDT
...cause you do your homework. Funny, I never thought of the Euro as a stand alone currency -- but always in relation to the USD.
Now that I think of it, I don't really care what happens to the Euro other than its relationship to other currencies.
Since August, I've been buying holding the Euro (and GPY) in a 50:1 Forex account. The chart below (snapped the other day) shows net profits in the $300,000 range. It's the same chart I've Diaried here many times along the way (with lower profits).
I think the Euro bashing Jerome has documented is about pundit panic about the dollar crashing (and probably boils down to oil in the end).
I'm not sure a single currency can replace the Dollar. The Euro works for now -- but I see a synthetic world trading currency forming soon (a basket of several currencies, especially Asian). It's inevitable.
Meanwhile, consider my dilemma -- and the dilemma of banks everywhere.
I can't really sell and take profits because then I'd be holding Dollars. And holding Dollars is a hot potato on its way to worthless. IMHO
If the Feds lower interest rates this month, this account will make another $100,000.
It's the only sure thing I've ever experienced in the markets.
by Pluto on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 04:01:32 PM PDT
je crois que tu es l'expert.
by Cliss on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 08:09:35 PM PDT
OK, that scenario looks problematic, but how is it different from, say, California having a housing bubble while, say, Idaho doesn't? Wouldn't the argument work against the dollar nearly as well?
Freedom is not just a word. 'Freedom' is a noun.
by intruder from Old Europe on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 05:50:37 PM PDT
The dollar is based on the taxpayers of all of America. Not just California. The Euro is based on the economies of the euro-zone, but which taxpayers? Spainish citizens pay taxes that go to the Spanish treasury. German citizens pay taxes that go to the German treasury. They may share a currency, but their national budgets are very different.
by gjohnsit on Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 01:17:17 PM PDT
historically, those living in the more prudent regions of the US have paid the price for the exuberance of their countrymen.
by UntimelyRippd on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 06:50:33 PM PDT
and the insight.
Patriotism may be the last refuge of scoundrels, but religion is assuredly the first.
by StrayCat on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 11:49:02 AM PDT
the Euro is being talked down successfully enough to make this a good time to buy some of that currency.
Looking for intelligent energy policy alternatives? Try here.
by alizard on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 11:59:53 PM PDT
wide narrow
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