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Many plans for new German coal plants have been scrapped this year in light of public opposition and government hints at tougher emissions laws that will make coal use far more expensive. Those plans remaining will produce barely enough electricity to replace the older coal plants scheduled for decommissioning over the next decade, let alone phased out nuclear plants.
Historical coal use of the past two decades doesn't support your speculation. German coal use has been fairy unchanged in the current decade, after massive cuts (mostly from taking very inefficient East German plants offline) in the 1990s. Most of the drop in coal was accompanied by a rise in natural gas, with nuclear remaining steady:
Your theory is testable on a shorter time scale, given that the latest IEA monthly electricity stats show a large drop German production of electricity from nuclear plants: for the first 8 months of 2007, compared to the same period in 2006, German electricity from nuclear was down more than 15% or about 17 TWh.
Has that 17 TWh shortfall been met with coal? Short answer, no. The change in electricity from combustibles is only 1 TWh. Larger sources making up the difference this year:
So if 2007 is any guide, most replacement for phased out nuclear generation will come from conservation, efficiency and renewable sources. Any increase from combustibles is likely to be from natural gas, not coal.
by retrograde on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 03:28:35 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
I'm sure that Germany is much better off increasing its dependence on Russian natural gas rather than increasing its dependence on South African coal. (Oh wait ... it is increasing its dependence on SA coal too.)
And Putin was named Time's "Person of the Year." Seems like he deserves it.
Blessed is the man who, having nothing to say, abstains from giving wordy evidence of the fact. -- George Eliot
by bryfry on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 04:22:40 AM PDT
Italy, France, Spain ... the trend is increasing natural gas use all over Europe. But the media-provided impression of it all coming from Russia is simplistic. In fact, none of those countries gets even a third of their imported nat gas from Russia.
The biggest obstacle to greater Russian profit from natural gas is the nation's own consumption. Russia produces 50% of the natural gas burned in Europe, but also consumes 70% of what it produces.
But the natural gas supply problem is far greater in the United States. There's little difference in the annual production of the USA and Russia, but a huge difference in reserves. The BP Statistical Review of World Energy puts the Proved Reserves/Production ratio of both the USA and Canada at around a decade - yet natural gas remains the top sector of new electricity capacity.
by retrograde on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 09:34:15 AM PDT
Far less than a third of the oil consumed by the US comes from Saudi Arabia, yet that country plays a very important part in our foreign policy. We're dependent on Saudi oil, even though we don't get all of our oil from there (in fact, we get more from Canada and Mexico). Russia now has a very strong influence over much of Europe because of natural gas. They don't have to supply all of it.
by bryfry on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 01:33:08 PM PDT
actual numbers of how many new plants are going to be built. Here's an article from sep from reuters stating that its down from a planned 20000 MW to 8000 MW by 2012 (and they need to replace around 30000 MW by 2021, some portion of which covers the nuclear they are phasing out).
My simple calculation above says thats (assuming 6 new plants) an additional 48 premature deaths per year.
Even with the IEA data you provide, assuming coal plants and nuclear plants average similar sizes, you would have to have a ratio better than 22 TWh of nuclear lost to compensate for the increased deaths generated by an additional 1 TWh of coal (note, that may be the case with the numbers you cited, but I can't navigate through the IEA page to find the data to see what proportion of the 1 TWh from combustibles is coal vs. gas).
by raoul78 on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 06:14:35 AM PDT
Germany's nuclear industry had a really good year in 2006. So I'm willing to cut them some slack for not being able to perform like that every year, especially in a climate where stupid ideologues in the government are trying to shut down the industry.
From VGB's April 2007 newsletter:
German nuclear power plants worldwide in the lead also in 2006 In 2006 the most successful nuclear power plants in the world were operated in Germany. Seven out of ten worldwide best production results were achieved by German nuclear power plants. The nuclear power plant ISAR-2 was world champion in energy production for the 8th time. This war reported by Deutsches Atomforum e.V. (DAtF) on February 19, 2007. In 2006 the 17 German nuclear power plants apparently produced some more energy than in the previous year. As the association Deutsche Atomforum reported on January 17, 2007 in Berlin, the production of the nuclear power plants had increased by 2.7 per cent up to 167.4 billion kilowatt hours. On average the individual German power plants had been in operation slightly more than 91 per cent of the time. That means two percentage more than 2005. The Atomforum called the nuclear energy as the basic pillar of the supply safety.
German nuclear power plants worldwide in the lead also in 2006
In 2006 the most successful nuclear power plants in the world were operated in Germany. Seven out of ten worldwide best production results were achieved by German nuclear power plants. The nuclear power plant ISAR-2 was world champion in energy production for the 8th time. This war reported by Deutsches Atomforum e.V. (DAtF) on February 19, 2007.
In 2006 the 17 German nuclear power plants apparently produced some more energy than in the previous year. As the association Deutsche Atomforum reported on January 17, 2007 in Berlin, the production of the nuclear power plants had increased by 2.7 per cent up to 167.4 billion kilowatt hours. On average the individual German power plants had been in operation slightly more than 91 per cent of the time. That means two percentage more than 2005. The Atomforum called the nuclear energy as the basic pillar of the supply safety.
by bryfry on Thu Dec 20, 2007 at 01:38:18 PM PDT
wide narrow
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