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  •  "Declared the winner?" (3+ / 0-)

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    DaleA, Geekesque, SaneSoutherner

    If he's declared the winner by Hillary, then sure.

    How big of a margin in a two-person race do you predict?  Because unless it's out of the range that I'd think likey, I don't think you're going to get Clinton to drop out, nor to not be taken seriously.  I think you're going to see a major uptick in the ugliness of the campaign, but no concession.  She was with Bill in New Hampshire in 2008, and I don't think she has quit in her while she breathes.  Go take a look at what Bill did to Tsongas in 1992.  If Obama wins, at least he'll have been torture-tested.

    FWIW, by the way, I'd much favor Obama vs. Clinton.  This isn't wishful thinking.

    If somebody writes a book and doesn't care for [its] survival, he's an imbecile.

    ~ Umberto Eco

    by Major Danby on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 09:30:13 PM PDT

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    •  Oh, I can't project a percentage. (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Major Danby

      If he beats her by a 55-45% spread, that should be enough.  It'll snowball from there.  The media will treat him as the winner, he'll call on Clinton to drop out, etc etc.

      Establishment candidates are frontrunners in the classic sense, i.e. once you get them down and behind, they don't know how to play catch-up.

      "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

      by Geekesque on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 09:34:19 PM PDT

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      •  Again, as I say below (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        DaleA, SaneSoutherner

        A 55-45% spread means that she probably wins several states.  Do you really expect her to bail, especially given that she may well have a countervailing advantage in superdelegates (which she'll certainly claim to have, regardless)?  I don't.

        I expect that if, say, Obama trounces her in California, she'll congratulate him, note that California votes only once in the process, and argue that the remaining states are much more like insert names of states she won than California.  She'll argue that now that he's the frontrunner, people will give him more scrutiny, and she'll be there to help them do so, and she thinks that when it's done they'll come back to her in Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania, et al.

        Your scenario is like the 1984 case where Mondale was shown to have a glass jaw, and was within one commercial catchphrase ("Where's the beef?") of losing.  Mondale did not have the fire in his belly that Hillary and Bill have.  They'll keep going.  Obama may beat her, but she'll make him earn the victory.

        If somebody writes a book and doesn't care for [its] survival, he's an imbecile.

        ~ Umberto Eco

        by Major Danby on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 09:53:59 PM PDT

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        •  Sure, she won't concede. (1+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          Major Danby

          But the media will say she lost.  And that will be that.

          The Clinton machine will throw everything they have at Obama between now and the South Carolina primary.  Everything.
           
          It won't be over until it's over, of course.

          "[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.

          by Geekesque on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 05:42:44 AM PDT

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          •  "The media will say she lost." (0+ / 0-)

            That's that part of your prediction I don't get.  Why would the media say she lost, if there's a serious argument to be made that she's still viable, especially with superdelegates?  They want there to be a continuing race.  And anyway, they tried shaming Bill Clinton out of the race in 1992; it didn't work.

            I've been trying to think of what proportion of the two candidate vote (this assuming Edwards would have dropped out) Obama needs to have for Hillary to drop out (and the media to do what you say.)  I think that if it's Obama over Hillary 60-40, she comes up with a way to stay in the race and live to fight another day: "on to Virginia and Maryland!"  If she gets below 40%, and if you see superdelegates as well as the media calling it, then she's out.  But that is a tall order.  And if she makes progress between February 9 and March 11 (and I think she would, especially in Texas), I think she waits for Pennsylvania.  I don't think she has an off switch.

            If somebody writes a book and doesn't care for [its] survival, he's an imbecile.

            ~ Umberto Eco

            by Major Danby on Mon Dec 03, 2007 at 01:42:22 PM PDT

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    •  I'd echo that. (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Major Danby, Partially Impartial

      I don't think she has quit in her while she breathes.

      Obama is turning out to be a tough act, as well.

      "I'm for Hillary because I believe that the United States right now is in a world of crap." - spoken by a Nevada voter

      by SaneSoutherner on Sun Dec 02, 2007 at 10:02:10 PM PDT

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