I think Clinton is better off finishing third in Iowa than second behind Obama.  The more viable Edwards remains, the less ground Obama can make up.  If Edwards is still in it on 2/5, I'd say it's in the bag for her.

While she has a huge lead in California, she also has a bit of a problem if Obama comes in with steam.  California Dems are allowing non-aligned voters to vote in their primary, while the Republicans are not.  If there's enough pro-Obama or anti-Clinton sentiment among independents, the race could be close.

It's a bit out of date and far too early, but their are a few cool charts on Wikipedia:

Early States

2/5 States

Other states  

I hope someone keeps updating those.