Of course the Surge™ isn't working.  It isn't intended to work.  It is part of our grand strategery in Iraq: if we stay there for long enough and change our plan on the ground every Friedman Unit™ or two, eventually a) things will start to get better, or at least appear to do so, just because they eventually have to get better, and b) we'll be able to take credit because of the recently changed plans.  The Surge™ is simply an effort to take advantage of people unable to recognize a logical fallacy when they see it--all too large a number of people--in order to swing public opinion around to the idea that whatever came before, we finally did right in Iraq.