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Gonzalez is a local figure in touch with the community.
Sheehan is, well, I'm not sure what to consider her anymore.
"[R]ather high-minded, if not a bit self-referential"--The Washington Post.
by Geekesque on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 07:42:18 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
that Sheehan would know better, I'm not so sure.
Perhaps she will appear and take this silly thing off the table?
Its the delegates that count
by Morgan Sandlin on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 07:50:53 PM PDT
would mention if they actually happen to live in San Francisco. Our politics are strange. Our demographics are rather diverse. Our electorate is overwhelmingly opposed to this war. And anyone who has watched SF politics for any length of time knows that Sheehan would. not. stand. a. chance. against Pelosi.
Please, feel free to talk about why it's good for Cindy to get her message heard far and wide. She's right about this: We all want this goddamned war over, and for Bush to be gone. But please don't speculate on SF politics unless you have some experience in the area.
If Cindy wants to get a message to Nancy, how about this: Take the money that she'd spend on a (futile) campaign, set up some fax machines on Market Street (by BART stations especially), in the Embarcadero Center and let people send FREE messages in their own words to Pelosi's office. Hell, set up some machines at Fisherman's Wharf - you'd have people from all over the country making the point. It would be wa-a-a-y cheaper and it would get the message across loud and clear.
Now, go spread some peace, love and understanding. Use force if necessary. - Phil N DeBlanc
by lineatus on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:11:26 PM PDT
...and people are still really pissed off at Pelosi, she'll succeed in cutting Pelosi's lead to maybe 55%. I think that would be the most optimistic scenario for Cindy.
Remember that a lot of people here, even if they're on the far left, are loyal to the Democratic party. I know a lot of people who absolutely hated Newsom, but had no intention of voting for Gonzalez (they voted for Ammiano in the primary, and held their noses and voted for Newsom in the general, or just abstained).
And yes, I live in SF. Though I don't know if that gives me much more expertise on this than those of you who live in Buttfuck, IA.
"Well, yeah, the Constitution is worth it if you can succeed." Nancy Pelosi
by StupidAsshole on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:19:18 PM PDT
Pelosi is a well-established professional politician.
I admire Cindy Sheehan greatly and, if she runs, she will generate a lot of attention and volunteers, but Nancy Pelosi will run her out of the Bay Area.
by blaneyboy on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:27:40 PM PDT
... and (perhaps even more important) the fact that Nancy has the gavel, I just don't see the locals voting her out.
It's kind of funny that last year MSM was screeching that Nancy was a "San Francisco Liberal" - horrors!! The bluest of blue, the leftest of the left - what will we do??? I really wish I could remember the link to the story the other day about one of the prognosticators prediction that if she became Speaker, Bush would be polling at 50% within six months.
ps - Your SF residency might give you expertise, depending on which neighborhood you're in. And how long you've lived here, and which school you went to... ;)
by lineatus on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:32:08 PM PDT
And so far, no one's cited anything showing someone with Sheehan's message and "street cred" (let's call it) would not fare well in a general election.
...just like no one ever talks about this.
"the people have the power to redeem the work of fools" --Patti Smith
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 09:43:18 PM PDT
Matt switched from Dem to Green.In 2003, that was asking to reap a certain Floridian bitterness.
Cindy's talking Indie run. While that's sure bound to her her with only-ever-Dem-dems, it might be persuasive with the progressive wing of the local party.
The one people don't talk about so much. The one that pushes things to the left, left, left in S.F.
Riddle me this: How did Chris Daly get re-elected?
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 09:40:46 PM PDT
...undercount major elements of his base (SRO residents); 2) he has union support; 3) people like me vote for him to stick it to the Chronicle and Downtown; 4) despite his antics, he's actually a fairly effective politician, and knows how to play the big-city pol game with developers.
by StupidAsshole on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 09:49:53 PM PDT
and despite his short temper and occasional verbal screw-ups, effective. He is innovative and progressives such as myself respect the heck out of his gadfly ways.
Children in the U.S... detained [against] intl. & domestic standards." --Amnesty International
by doinaheckuvanutjob on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 10:51:23 PM PDT
...out of office. I met him once, and he was a real mensch: a completely unaffected, uncondescending person, enthusing about some wonky polling analysis he'd just done. I'd expected him to be an asshole (like most politicians I've met), but he seemed like a genuinely nice guy.
by StupidAsshole on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:24:46 AM PDT
reading the Chron mock Chris Daly's language. (Something along the lines of "I'm not feeling the love. And I'm not feeling this budget!")
They suggested it meant he needed therapy-- that he was actually talking about his, you know, personal emotional needs.
I disagreed. I figured the Chron needed to get out of their offices more, and maybe go grab a donut at 6th and Market or something. Maybe hear the way actual 6th Dist. constituents talk, in the early 21st century.
The Chron was incapable of understanding contemporary vernacular! Not really surprising, but still a little shocking, if you think about it.
That is Daly's secret weapon. He is of, by, and for the people. Very compelling stuff, down there in CA-08. That's what I'm on about.
by Immigrant Punk on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:34:38 AM PDT
He'll be at a loose end once he's termed out. He'd certainly add some depth to her campaign.
And your observation about the Chron being incapable of recognizing contemporary vernacular is excellent, btw. Have you considered writing it up and getting it published in http://www.beyondchron.org ? Paul Hogarth from there is also on here.
by StupidAsshole on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:41:51 AM PDT
I'll go have a look.... thanks!
by Immigrant Punk on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:44:05 AM PDT
...building an alliance between tenants' rights groups and Angelo Sangiacomo, the "father of rent control." He knows how to play the big-city-politics game of coalitions.
by StupidAsshole on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:27:47 AM PDT
Of course, he's a Dem, so has to be careful about endorsing Indies of whatever type.
On the other hand, is he really going far past Sacto? I mean, who knows what cultural changes will make acceptable in 20, 30 years down the line, but still. I've a hard time seeing him in the Senate (or the guv's digs...)
On the other hand, Sheehan wouldn't need his verbal endorsement. Just his people.
People like tenants rights activists, in the tightest housing market in the country? Probably mobilizable for "people power" over vested interests of various types.
Everyone cites Pelosi's 80%. But when was the last time her constituents had an actual choice?
Dems, hear me, and beware. Peace out, y'all!
by Immigrant Punk on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:39:43 AM PDT
I moved out of SF 15 years ago, live north of their now, and well appreciate your comments on City politics. Thanks for bringing a little common sense to the conversation.
And the fax idea is brilliant.
~Understand strong progressive framing, support progressive infrastructure~
by CalifSherry on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:29:16 PM PDT
Can I just say, this is a fascinating idea? Can you imagine fax machines in urban centers across the country? I'd love to see them in Union Square, in Central Park... In Boston in Copley Square... In Chicago on the Mag Mile and in the Loop...
God, that would be awesome.
"Not just with words, but with deeds." -- Barack Obama
by kath25 on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:30:08 PM PDT
I don't live anywhere close to SF, so I have no idea about how realistic this is. I do know folks are unhappy with the Speaker's position on impeachment, but this seems to be more of an emotional decision than anything to me. There have to be smarter ways to lobby Nancy Pelosi than being so confrontational..
(please, no "sexist" flames for the "emotional" thing, I really don't mean it that way)
Ready to go, y'all. -4.48, -4.56
by pseudopod on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:48:33 PM PDT
When polled in 2005 at DKos - an audience which has a lot in common with SF - satisfaction with Pelosi ran at 19%.
More recently, Pelosi's extremely public failure of leadership matters to voters. Bizarrely, on Larry King this season she confessed that she's never convinced a colleague of anything. That's how peanut storage earmarks got in an Iraq funding bill. And by swearing she'll never prosecute Bush's crimes, she's become famous as his most important enabler - replacing Blair, in a way. Somehow that's not popular in San Francisco.
Folks who dismiss Sheehan here may be more in tune with party insider conventional wisdom than with actual feelings about Pelosi among voters in the Bay Area.
levity defies gravity
by Levity on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 09:22:38 PM PDT
For helping me with the gravity of what I'm trying to say here.
The Dems ignore Sheehan at our collective peril. She's got a shot in SF, despite everything people have said against her here.
It's just a Sheehan kinda town.
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 09:45:34 PM PDT
Pelosi's not invincible - no one is. I just don't think that Sheehan can do it, especially since she's not from here.
by lineatus on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 09:51:12 PM PDT
like so many of the residents of SF who have moved here, but are never from here, for not being born here, except when we travel from here?
You mean, like that?
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 11:29:13 PM PDT
Pelosi's from elsewhere, and so am I (something my third-generation SF native husband will never let me forget). Given your screen name, I'd guess you are too. We all made the commitment to the City, despite the high prices, tourists and occasional provincialism.
It would be a nice gesture on Cindy's part to actually live here before announcing she wants to speak for us.
by lineatus on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 05:38:31 AM PDT
You've made a false assumption.
Unlike all the folks who think they have to raise $10-30M to have their voices heard this season, Sheehan is actually taking a stand on something important and popular, in two areas where her competition is totally failing.
She understands something key about politics that is eluding most of the other candidates. That's worth millions.
by Levity on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 10:57:10 PM PDT
And it's been said elsewhere: all the press will just eat it right up.
Cost: priceless, as they say.
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 11:30:25 PM PDT
...constituency politician--at least among a number of people I know in District 5, he had the reputation of being not very responsive to his constituents' concerns. I think many of us who voted for him did so because we were protesting Newsom being spoon-fed to us as the Democratic machine's candidate, not because we were massively impressed with Gonzalez' abilities (frankly, if the mayor's race were based on the abilities of the candidates, I think Aaron Peskin or Tom Ammiano would be mayor by now).
by StupidAsshole on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:14:19 PM PDT
and presumably knows how to use the BART.
by Geekesque on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:24:55 PM PDT
...isn't from around here. It's not as if she's some big-time politician looking for a constituency and carpetbagging the electorate. That's the kind of thing that would alienate voters here, not a mother who lost a son in a war that is universally reviled here moving here to run in an election as a candidate protesting that war. Sure Cindy sometimes makes politically unwise decisions, and can be a bit indecisive. But her appeal is that she's not a politician; just a woman whose son paid the consequences for the current administration's actions and for the failure of the current congress to challenge the administration.
by StupidAsshole on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:30:49 PM PDT
That said, I think most are in agreement that Pelosi is in no danger here.
by Geekesque on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:32:25 PM PDT
by lineatus on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 08:48:05 PM PDT
residency is not a prerequisite for candidacy for the House. Furthermore, Sheehan's talking about moving here. Furthermore, she's from the area. Furthermore, HRC managed to transplant to NY, so it's not like there's no precedent.
Furthermore, she does represent the primary concerns of a whole lot of SF voters.
Straws, these things you clutch at.
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 09:50:38 PM PDT
I'm not clutching at straws, though. I'm in the Sunset so Pelosi's not my rep.
I have nothing against Cindy Sheehan. As you said above, it's a "Sheehan kind of town", and that's definitely true. I just don't think it's a "Sheehan town" specifically. I think it would be great if she had some long-term political presence. Unfortunately, this seems likely to diminish her effectiveness rather than help it. That's all.
by lineatus on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 10:00:04 PM PDT
And I DO appreciate your sustained and polite engagement in this diary. It makes vigorous debate so much better, don't you think?
Peace :-)
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 11:31:50 PM PDT
Much prefer the vigorous debate to be found here.
by lineatus on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 06:04:05 AM PDT
by Immigrant Punk on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 06:07:10 AM PDT
Nobody here in 'Frisco calls it "THE" BART. Last I heard, "THE" Bart was named Simpson.
Well Dayum! The Fat Lady just sang her tits right off!
by homogenius on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 09:29:17 PM PDT
"Frisco" I ask you...
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 09:51:21 PM PDT
but i'm feeling generous. ;-P
surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat
by wu ming on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:29:51 AM PDT
But I'm the buster, not the busted, here! ;-)
by Immigrant Punk on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:46:47 AM PDT
For example. You know, all those poor people displaced by the realty dot-boom?
Prioritizing them over homeowner-type concerns was actually not a bug, but a feature of his term of office.
Just sayin. Nor has anyone answered me yet on why, if Daly is so gawdawful, he keeps winning elections?
Are we ignoring certain constituencies in our conventional wisdom-based considerations here?
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 09:48:12 PM PDT
...politicians in the city. The polls consistently undercount his support, because they undercount certain groups, including SRO residents.
by StupidAsshole on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 10:04:15 PM PDT
People like SRO residents, who tend not to vote, under normal circumstances, but who, when they do, just love to stick it to Da Man. (of either gender, mind you)
There are in fact many such populations here.
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 11:34:03 PM PDT
Newsom and Gonzalez were both running for election as Mayor. Speaker Pelosi is running for reelection, having represented CA-08 since 1987.
A better analogy for Cindy Sheehan would be Krissy Keefer, who won a whopping 7% of the vote in 2006.
by ortcutt on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 11:26:59 PM PDT
I'll bet that Sheehan's better known though. And as an Independent, easier to vote for than GP candidate Krissy Keefer... who for all that, did pretty well against the Rethug.
by Immigrant Punk on Sun Jul 08, 2007 at 11:36:54 PM PDT
This is San Francisco we're talking about here. Coming up 3.4 pts behind the Republican candidate is nothing to shout about.
Pelosi (Dem): 80.4% DeNunzio (Rep): 10.8% Keefer (Grn): 7.4% Berg (Lib): 1.4%
by ortcutt on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:47:52 AM PDT
nor is it doing a thing to harm the Dems locally (despite the Newsom '03 scare).
That seems almost.... scandalous by DKos standards.
I dunno about "shouting" about it, but it's worth mentioning, at least.
Meanwhile, we continue to ignore this particular point: any reasonable assessment is that Keefer was an unknown non-entity, and Cindy Sheehan is an antiwar superstar.
Call her what you will for it, them's the facts. Mind you don't over-believe your own rhetoric, and peace to ya!
by Immigrant Punk on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 12:55:00 AM PDT
I just don't know why that would make people want to vote for her.
by ortcutt on Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 01:11:59 AM PDT
wide narrow
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