its doesn't hurt him to predict one and NDN has already pointed out why he is motivated to say this, but everyone else on the shows acted like there is no chance of a recession.   That is not a very rational position.   They were saying things like "the market has already priced in any additional risk that the subprimes pose".    There is a shit load of subprime ARMS that are going to default in the next 18 months.    Here we are on a show where they are watching stock prices on an hourly basis and they want me to believe that the efficient markets have already accounted for all of the unknowns for the next 18 months.   Right.  Anyone who says that is either an idiot or lying.

not sure what your sig line means but turkeys can fly.    they aren't good at landing though.   When they land in trees it quite a sight and certainly looks more like a crash than a landing.