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View Diary: Troll Rating Fritz Haber, Jimmy Kunstler and the Oracle at Snowmass, Part 2 (155 comments)

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  •  Sorry, but I find your ideas (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LIsoundview, Plan9

    hopelessly naive.

    Wind, the most promising technology, installed 2,454 megawatts of capacity last year. Now, assuming that they are able to keep this level of growth up for the next decade (which I highly doubt), that's 24,540 MW of capacity, built in 10 years, right?

    I have already stated that the nuclear industry has increased its electricity production over the last 10 years (a time during which they built no new nuclear reactors) by 112,490 thousand MWh per year. Now, in order for the 24,540 MW of new wind capacity built over the next 10 years to equal that, these wind farms would have to produce electricity at a capacity factor of at least 52%.

    Sorry ... that ain't happening.

    Now, if the nuclear industry were to build new plants ... well ... they're going to leave wind in the dust.  Most likely anything else as well.

    Perhaps your wishes will come true and a new breakthrough will occur. Until then, you're just being naive.

    Thanks for the support on the troll rating, however. I won't dream of troll rating you, even though I disagree with you on a couple of points. ;-)

    •  It appears that (2+ / 1-)
      Recommended by:
      Plan9, bryfry
      Hidden by:
      indycam

      indycam is the designated troll-rater of the day.  You may have noticed that antinuke troll raters seem to cycle through like that-one major one per diary.

    •  You're right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NRG Guy

      ..if we assume no breakthroughs.  That is, if we continue to talk about land-based wind (and polysilicon solar).

      And if we had to choose whether to spend ALL money on nuclear, or ALL money on a breakthrough, you might also be right.

      But that's not the choice we face.  We can spend all money on nukes, or we can divert a significant amount to make hybrid helicopters/wind turbines, thin film solar, etc.

      Thank goodness the market is choosing to fund R&D into thin film solar (and CSP).  I'm hoping it will also fund R&D into hybrid helicopters/wind farms as well.

      The market is betting on breakthroughs.  So would I.  Not with all my money, but a significant chunk of it.

      I can see the case for nuclear.  But I have never been able to see the case for ONLY nuclear, to the complete exclusion of everything else.

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