An interesting shot... but I'd point out the other variables, the biggest being that the Obama campaign has been playing all along to maximize the delegate count -- which is how they won the delegate counts out of Nevada despite losing the popular.

They've put a lot of resources into organizing the caucus states, and the organization and planning is going to magnify any successes.

They're also pretty tight, I suspect, on the CD races -- they're narrow-casting for particular vote targets in particular congressional district races, which will likely shave delegates off of Hillary's wins.