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do with this diary what you will.
There ae now just over 12 hours until our polls in Virginia close. And I expect the networks will call the state for Obama almost immediately if not sooner.
Peace.
Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH! If impeachment is off the table, so is democracy
by teacherken on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:51:12 AM PDT
now I can go to bed in peace. (of course, it is 4 AM...)
... Obama helps us track $17,550,300,000,000 of federal spending ...
by barath on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:56:41 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
you could be making phone calls into Virginia, MD and DC if you really wanted to!
I am greedy. I know Obama will win Virginia. But if my Governor can keep pushing for every vote, so can I. That's why there are opportunities for visibility, for lit drops, for flushing, and for persuading using every tool at one's disposal.
You will note the comment I just posted with the email from Michelle - the campaign is not letting up. Neither am I. Analysis is one thing. Hard work doesn't stop.
by teacherken on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:00:25 AM PDT
Every vote counts. Even if one side is "winning Virginia", every vote could change the margin of victory, and change the number of delegates.
So, everyone, GOTV!
-5.63, -8.10 | Impeach, Convict, Remove & Bar from Office, Arrest, Indict, Convict, Imprison!
by neroden on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:05:00 AM PDT
Who actually wins the popular vote means little, except for bragging rights. Bigger margins mean more delegates. A 30% victory in VA would mean more than a 15% victory, both for narrative and delegate allocation purposes.
You know we live in strange times when hearing something as simple as the truth almost seems shocking.
by redhaze on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:08:18 AM PDT
I cast an early-bird ballot to get it out of the way this morning. Few voters at the polling place that early. I was surprised that the ballot still included Edwards, Biden, Kucinich and a couple of others I can't remember.
by AAGeek on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:09:22 AM PDT
My wife worked our precinct 6 to 8 this morning for Obama. No other campaign had a presence. She said there were lines several times (suburban Loudoun County so no shortage of machines).
"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." - Abraham Lincoln
by Loudoun County Dem on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:31:37 AM PDT
A dozen friends spent two-plus hours last night phonebanking for Obama. I'd estimate we each got through 20-30 calls. (Then we had a feast!)
Of the 30 or so calls I made, about 10 weren't home or were bad numbers.
Of the remaining 20, I only had one strong Clinton supporter (who tried to pick an argument with me for nearly 10 minutes; I was very upbeat and positive with him, hoping at least to convey that Obama supporters are not "venomous" which is the new media slam on us). I had three people who did not want to discuss the election.
The rest were either moderately or enthusiastically pro-Obama -- wildly enthusiastic for him.
I talked with one woman who said she was grieving because her brother and cousin had both just died, but that the one thing she wanted to do now was get to the polls and vote for Barack. She talked about the price of gas, groceries, the loss of jobs in our country, the war.
This was a moving and encouraging experience. I urge everyone to try the Obama virtual phonebanking system -- it's very easy to use once you sign up:
http://my.barackobama.com
I'll make calls to Wisconsin and Texas next.
"Animals are my friends. And I don't eat my friends." -- George Bernard Shaw
by Hudson on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:38:50 AM PDT
for your time and that of your friends! :-)
"Not just with words, but with deeds." -- Barack Obama
by kath25 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:54:34 AM PDT
I actually spoke with a woman who said people at her work were saying that oprah was funding Barack's campaign, and for that reason she was voting for Clinton. I informed her that such talk was nonsense and noone can donate more than $2300, and I pointed her to some websites to learn more about the campaign. I also informed her about the DailyKos drive to donate $5.01 to the campaign today. I think i convinced her to go with barack, because I told her one of the main things one should look to before voting is where they get the money to fund their campaigns. Barack is getting money from mostly individuals like us. I think she liked that and she thanked me for the information. I find just not being too pushy and just informing the voter about the differences between the two candidates is far more effective than just being an all out advocate. gives you more credibility.
by Gabriel Jack on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:23:16 AM PDT
by condorcet on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:44:13 AM PDT
how just a little bit of accurate information can do the trick.
Everyone's always in favor of saving Hitler's brain. But when you put it in the body of a great white shark, oh! Suddenly you've gone too far!-Futurama
by McJagger on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:05:42 AM PDT
7 numbers were bad, 2 pro-Clinton, 4 undecideds and 5 enthusiastically for Obama.
by rapcetera on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:02:33 AM PDT
I was very upbeat and positive with him, hoping at least to convey that Obama supporters are not "venomous" which is the new media slam on us).
That's Krugman. He's a bit cranky these days.
We all have days like that. Some more than others.
What's the matter with Hillary?
by chicago jeff on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:48:40 AM PDT
in Richmond?
Barack Obama Respects Your Opinion
by DJShay on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:24:35 AM PDT
which is basically suburban Richmond. I got to the polls at 6:15 am and was number 18. The three people in line ahead of me all asked to vote Democratic, which surprised me since I thought my neighborhood was heavily Republican.
"We *can* go back to the Dark Ages! The crust of learning and good manners and tolerance is so thin!" -- Sinclair Lewis
by Nespolo on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:16:35 AM PDT
because that is another person getting involved in taking their Country back. I'm getting on Obama's site and making some calls today. You inspired me. I'm from NC8 where Larry Kissell, another Government High School Teacher showed us how important EVERY single vote is with his close defeat in 2006, Keep up the good work Teacherken!
by Carolina Grl on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:12:16 AM PDT
He'll have plenty of organization backing this time around to take out Robin Hayes.
Go Kissell!
A foolish consistency (staying the course in Iraq) is the hobgoblin of George W. Bush.
by wildcat6 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:08:28 AM PDT
while kids are at preschool this afternoon...hope virginia goes as you think! on to wisconsin...
by sunhaws on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:03:10 AM PDT
And I love on-the-ground reports.
It all sounds very promising for Obama...
by JoeW on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:58:54 AM PDT
Exactly what public school teachers should be it seems to me. Hey check out this link which has the most extensive polling for today's races I have seen yet. It also includes D.C. with CD and delegate breakdowns for all races. What do you think? A little conservative? Thanks! Potomac Primary
But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false--about Hope ~BHO -6.38/-7.08
by OH 09 Dem on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:27:14 AM PDT
what I am hearing from 3r4d CD in Virginia is that it will definitely be better than 2-1 for Obama, so using that as a metric, it seems that the delegate splits and voter turnouts are probably a bit conservative
we will see.
by teacherken on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:36:09 AM PDT
Go Barack Obama
by concerned on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:46:15 AM PDT
"it sounds very promising for US?" An election is a voter action, you know.
How do you tell a predator from a protector? The predator will eat you sooner rather than later.
by hannah on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:43:42 AM PDT
I've been commenting all over about how remarkable it feels to be in the midst of actual participatory democracy--where state primaries count that no one expected to. I should have said that here as well.
Look at all the people who really care about the future of the country. It's a heartening message.
by JoeW on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:04:53 AM PDT
One of the best things about DKos, particularly around election time, is the on-the-ground reports from all the members across the country, and teacherken has been one of the best. Thanks for all your insight into Virginia!
by Diane Chambers on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:39:35 AM PDT
I would argue a teacher of govt is probably MORE qualified to analyze our current political environment than any of the stumbling mumblers in the Beltway Punditocracy.
Have they gotten ANYTHING correct this year?
"Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you" ~ Pericles
by Chrispy67 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:01:00 AM PDT
meaningless mojo mug for my meandering musings
Sesquipedalian surrogatives of saccharine sympathy seeking!
It is the folly of youth to think they can change the world; it is the folly of old age not to try. -- Winston Churchill
by penguins4peace on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:17:58 AM PDT
Barack Obama has a lot more than "anything in Hawai'i. He has his power house sister and kind of Kama'aima advantage since he was born in the Aloha State and attended high school there as well. But I suppose your question referred specifically to staff and advertising and offices. ````` peace
Basketball Diary - Will Obama Be the First Hoopster in the WhiteHouse?
by peace voter on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:23:09 AM PDT
by OH 09 Dem on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:28:21 AM PDT
A little noticed December diary from Dkoser raatz, showed us that Senator Obama's sister Maya Soetoro-Ng has been campaigning is Hawai'i for some time. I will be surprised if he does not take Hawai'i by a huge margin. Not just because of his sister's efforts, but do believe that she is a huge asset for her brother's campaign. ```` peace
by peace voter on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:35:32 AM PDT
his sister had a thoughtful interview printed in the NTY Sunday magazine. It wasn't rah rah, just interesting. She clearly has her act together as well.
by Heart of the Rockies on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:09:26 AM PDT
that said, while he is greatly respected, I do not expect Clintons to put any kind of effort into that state. Although if she could do something under the radar even a closer than expected loss there could blunt Obama's momentum some. That said, I would be surprised were this anywhere near close.
by teacherken on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:41:23 AM PDT
is anything but a "people power" politician. I say that because of a rather perplexing experience that I had when, as a young voter in Hawai'i, I attempted to ask him a question after a Democratic luncheon that I attended on the Big Island. Perhaps my experience was not representative of how he interacts with his constituents, but I did not get a good impression of the Senator. He struck me as extremely establishement and contemptuous of the peons when he came to our island to promote a proposed nuclear reactor that would send electrical power to the island of Oahu via undersea cable. Thank Madame Pele and other Hawai'ian gods and godesses that that scheme never panned out. ```` peace
by peace voter on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:51:30 AM PDT
On an island with an abundance of potential renewable energy sources? Oy! They just recently (as within a year or so) fixed the wind farm down in South Point as I recall, yes?
by PadfootLive on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:34:01 AM PDT
occurred many years ago. I don't think I made it clear in my comment. It was during the Carter administration.
There are so many clean, safe, renewable ways to generate electricity in Hawai'i that the insanity of the nuclear option must have been obvious to most rational beings. ```` peace
by peace voter on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:39:55 AM PDT
Hawai'i is the one contest for which I've promised myself that I won't stay up until the returns come in. I just killed myself on Super Tuesday, waiting for Alaska returns, California delegate numbers, etc.; but not this time. I swear. (Uh-oh.)
by Rieux on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:42:02 AM PDT
I suppose that it's a good thing that you've managed to get some shut eye since they held their "caucuses" on Super Tuesday. The new "deadline" for the final vote count is this coming Friday...but I really wonder why they've managed to disqualify such a large percentage of the ballots that were cast provisionally. (link) ```` peace
by peace voter on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:32:54 AM PDT
I gave up on New Mexico. (Colorado is taking forever to allot its delegates, too.)
by Rieux on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:49:36 AM PDT
I'm a little nervous, so I'm having a hard time sleeping. And I just wrote the diary I'll be posting tomorrow.
I want to come back out to NoVA sometime soon. I'll let you know when that is.
oops. I hope the gate wasn't too expensive.
My blog. Come visit.
by hekebolos on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:40:24 AM PDT
I don't think the word "merely" is suitable for a description of you and what you provide for the future of this world.
Just sayin' - from what I've read of your work, and your students work - I think you are much more than an "ordinary" teacher.
by bobnbob on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:10:47 AM PDT
here's the link, from which I note the following:
This is based on polling Saturday and Sunday, and IIRC so far during the campaign Clinton has tended to perform better in weekend polls than in polls during the week
by teacherken on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:21:13 AM PDT
It's strange that the percentage of 65+ is enough to tilt the white vote up two points. Number 1 and number 2 are nonintuitive for me.
The true Ben Franklin quote from Poor Richard's Almanack is "Sell not virtue to purchase wealth, nor Liberty to purchase power."
by Andy30tx on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:26:53 AM PDT
by teacherken on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:31:10 AM PDT
this is because senior citizens do actually turn out to vote more reliably than younger voters?
by elmo on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:08:18 AM PDT
giving 110%
by jeffwtux on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:39:14 AM PDT
by Dskinsey on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:32:26 AM PDT
day, would that favor Obama?
Democracy is the only form of government wherein the people receive the government they deserve.
by tjlord on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:53:03 AM PDT
only part of state where she is leading in polls. While I presume any downturn in voting in the Valley will not affect the percentages each receives there, it could affect two Congressional districts some, and certainly affect the overall margin in the state.
by teacherken on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 11:41:28 AM PDT
makes me nervous.
Act as if we're 10 points down.
Work for every vote; earn every vote.
If we elect Clinton, we change parties. If we elect Obama, we CHANGE AMERICA.
by DemDog on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:22:54 AM PDT
The New Hampshire Polls proved to be inaccurate because people ignored the huge percentage of people who said they were undecided. That undecided vote swung to Hillary. Now, many more people know much more about Obama, and the undecided vote has greatly shrunk.
JPZenger was a newspaper publisher whose jury trial in the 1730s for seditious libel helped establish the freedom to criticize top government officials.
by JPZenger on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:03:22 AM PDT
from SUSA polling VA Sat-Sun:
Obama 60 Clinton 38 Other 2 Undecided 1
(due to rounding comes up to 101 I know)
Half of interviews were conducted before Obama wins in Louisiana Primary, Nebraska caucus and Washington state caucus were known. Half of interviews were conducted after.
Of those who could change their mind, Clinton wins 44-42, while of those who have made up their mind, Obama wins 61-38
But get this. 86% percent have made up their mind, while only 13% could change theirs. Even if all those in that category currently for Obama were to go for Clinton while she lost NONE of her soft support, that would change less than 6% of the vote. Even were 6% net to switch from Clinton to Obama, which is highly unlikely, he would still win by 10% according to this poll.
In other words, even worst case scenario,in a poll that probably understates percentage of turnout that would be African-American (they have at 29% and most people I talked to around the state think it will be over 1/3) Clinton will still lose by double digits.
It is not just the raw numbers that have to be daunting for the Clinton campaign. The internal numbers are horrible for them.
by teacherken on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:17:03 AM PDT
Rather, you should act as if you don't know anything until the last vote is counted. Peoples' obsession with polls is not helpful.
We're retiring Steve LaTourette (R-Family Values for You But Not for Me) and sending Judge Bill O'Neill to Congress from Ohio-14: http://www.oneill08.com/
by anastasia p on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:04:11 AM PDT
I voted absentee at the Fairfax Government Center on Saturday. Overheard one worker say that they had had about 600 voters on Thursday and Friday and expected about 500 on Saturday. The place was hopping and extremely efficient.
by deminva on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:25:15 AM PDT
Hooray for Blue Virginia. Thanks for the report. And this:
15 of the people before me had voted in the Democratic primary and only two in the Republican
Is indicative the best news we'll hear all day, regardless of who wins! :-)
by kath25 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:53:30 AM PDT
(is there anything in HI?)
Are you sure you're not thinking of HA?
Oh wait, it is abbreviated as HI, joke's on me.
Ha.
Do we really want another YEAR of trying to explain to everyone why the Democratic nominee voted to authorize the Iraq war before they were against it?
by ShadowSD on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:55:39 AM PDT
excellent alliteration
You can lead a conservative to facts--but you can't make him think.
by DelicateMonster on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:18:46 AM PDT
Although Obama looks sure to win in the Potomac primaries, I'm going to hold on to an ounce or two of my skepticism for now. I do have a question though...
I've heard it said several times that Elizabeth Edwards favors Obama over Clinton. Where is this information coming from?
Obama-Sebelius `08
by Potus2020 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:59:48 AM PDT
including at least one within one of the campaigns probably in a position to know. There are several teaser items in press reports as well.
I think it is also on the surface the logical judgment, given some of the remarks Elizabeth made during the campaign.
by teacherken on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:13:44 AM PDT
I think Edwards could not endorse Clinton and look at himself without his head exploding. He may choose to not endorse anyone for the moment, in line with his statement that he did not wish to be either a spoiler or a Kingmaker, a position I thought quite principled. But if he endorses, various warm locations would need to freeze over before he would endorse Clinton.
I am seeing a lot of enthusiasm this year, from young, old, middle, both sexes and all political stripes. And here's a hint: not for McCain. There was a mood in our CA polling place that I have not felt for years. Yeah, fine, Clinton won, but permanent absentee ballots were sent out a month before, so the election was front-loaded in a way that favored Clinton. But the energy was clearly breaking Obama. I wish I had the contract to supply Obama signs. He seems to have crafted an unusually effective insurgent campaign. He may personally have trouble keeping his desk clean, something that other great minds also struggle with (cough) but he clearly knows how to employ people who produce wonders, while not wasting time on TV talk shows and just let the candidate front for the campaign. Smart, when you have such a good candidate.
by arthura on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:22:14 AM PDT
that is meaningless or that I would consider meandering. Your "musings" are always insightful.
Since [2000] it's been a book you read in reverse So you understand less as the pages turn - The Shins
by kissfan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:28:03 AM PDT
I was struck by this in your reporting:
If I look at the endorsements of local officials, almost all who had supported Edwards are now supporting Obama.
As an Edwards supporter, I find this quite interesting. (And helpful -- we vote on May 6 down here in NC.)
What I liked about your diary (+4, Rec'd, btw) was that you've separated your OBSERVATIONS from your OPINIONS.
Very nicely done.
(And I don't think Edwards NEEDS to endorse anybody prior to HRC giving up. Gives him some leverage at the Convention.)
Happy little moron, Lucky little man.I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!-Spike Milligan
by polecat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:56:10 AM PDT
by anastasia p on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:58:56 AM PDT
came out and said that the rumors about Elizabeth favoring Obama are untrue...yesterday.
Edwards Democrats and Progressives Unite! Visit us at EENR Blog
by sarahlane on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 09:14:16 AM PDT
do you have any link about that?
..."For beauty," I replied. "And I for truth,-the two are one; We brethren are"... E. Dickinson
by peagreen on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:24:04 AM PDT
this is the reason I come onto Daily Kos, to get this very insightfull local feel for what is happening. Keep up the great work.
Dave
by Daveinsf on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 10:22:53 AM PDT
wide narrow
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