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Clintonistas for Obama
by atdnext on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 10:56:13 AM PDT
Well-vetted and -sourced, as is typical of you ... i'd write more but someone's knocking at the door. YOU GO!
Susan (my cat)
by SusanHu on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 10:59:29 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
That's a real compliment coming from you! :-)
by atdnext on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:00:41 AM PDT
HUH?
Sorry but I don't back QUITTERS!
I'm in Hillary's corner
ALL THE WAY
baby!
:)
DONATE! / HillarysVoice
by Alegre on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:06:02 AM PDT
What are your expectations for Tuesday?
Four states: RI, VT, TX and OH?
If you think the terrorist fist jab is bad... you need to see his terrorist Hokey-Pokey.
by JeffLieber on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:10:01 AM PDT
and you can take them with a grain of salt.
Texas: Clinton 53, Obama 47 (Clinton net 10 delegates)
Ohio: Clinton 56, Obama 44 (Clinton net 20 delegates)
Rhode Island: Clinton 60, Obama 40 (Clinton net 5 delegates)
Vermont: Obama 60, Clinton 40 (Obama net 3 delegates)
Total Clinton gain from March 4th: 32 delegates.
Obama lead in pledged delegates after March 4th is 120 delegates.
by johndeebo on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:43:57 AM PDT
...Clinton's take from the night is more like 10 delegates, then what?
Its pretty apparent to most that short a bombshell discovery she's not going to the convention with a majority of delegates or elected delegates (and now not even Superdelegates), so, again honestly, what do you see as the endgame?
by JeffLieber on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:53:22 AM PDT
The 50 state strategy is essential to build a party. You need house and senate positions, even from 'red' states. Governors and state legislatures too.
But winning the presidency is about getting a majority of the electoral college. Having a candidate who can 'win' states in the primary that you are going to lose doesn't help.
Hillary will make the case that her support is stronger in the states that have to be won to be the next president.
It's a valid argument.
by william shipley on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:01:38 PM PDT
in these "must win" states wouldn't vote for Obama in the general? They might prefer Hillary, but if Obama is the nominee why would you assume they'd vote Republican or not vote?
Look, the whole point of having a elections in a political party is that we understand our nominee is going to be someone chosen by the majority of the people voting in our party. It's pretty tough for me to swallow the idea that because I live in Texas, my vote is somehow worth less (in my own frickin' political party) than a voter in California or New York.
It's bad enough that I have to live with the fact that my vote counts for nothing in the general election.
by elmo on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:05:54 PM PDT
can go into the convention down in deligates but have a viable 'spin' that she is actually ahead where it counts. Since there is some truth to the argument, she may push it.
She is a fighter.
by william shipley on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:17:09 PM PDT
...and him WINNING to McCain in those states, then that argument falls apart, right? He outpolls her in most every state (not all, but a vast majority) when put head to head with McCain.
by JeffLieber on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:21:38 PM PDT
but I have no doubt that you are right and that Clinton will try to push it.
When she was ahead in Texas, she said the same thing as she did about other states in which she won. Now that she's behind, she's cast it as a red state not worthy of attention.
Obama can win states that Democrats haven't won in a while....now b/c he won the Democratic primary there, but b/c people are genuinely excited by him.
Hillary's response to all that is simply to mock his strongest asset...his eloquence, which is something that Hillary has exactly zilch!
by usmeagle69 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 03:11:23 PM PDT
Even with my previous scenario/prediciton Obama will still be up by 120 pledged delegates after the March 4th primary. Only 650 delegates would be left after March 4th therefore in order for Hillary Clinton to break even with Obama in the final pledged delegates count she need to win the remaining 650 delegates by a margin of 60% to 40% for Obama and noting that at least 4 to 5 of the remaining 12 states are Obama wins for sure.
Therefore in the real world it is not possible for Hillary Clinton to ersae Obama lead in the pledged delegates.
by johndeebo on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:02:09 PM PDT
Texas: Obama 55 Clinton 45 (Obama +17) Ohio: Obama 50 Clinton 50 (Clinton +1) Rhode Island: Obama 46 Clinton 54 (Clinton +4) Vermont Obama 64 Clinton 36 (Obama +4)
Net - Obama +16
Turn out the lights.
Canada - where a pack of smokes is ten bucks and a heart transplant is free.
by dpc on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:56:56 AM PDT
it is indeed turn out the light for Hillary Clinton but I do not think she is going to give up. She has lived all her adult life lusting to become President and she is willing to destroy the democrat party before she is totally defeated. Her lust for power is something that we cannot comprehend, it is simply devilish. She will go on to the convention trying to seat Michigan and Floride delegates and also try to intimidate the Super Delegates.
by johndeebo on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:07:06 PM PDT
She will drop out.
We are the ones we've been waiting for.
by Same As It Ever Was on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:35:06 PM PDT
about right. I'd probably give Clinton another point or two in Ohio and R.I.
by Same As It Ever Was on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:35:49 PM PDT
irrelevant after a while. Once she fails to do what she needs to do in Ohio and Texas, her money will dry up and the Superdelegates will solidify behind Obama. This campaign was over after she was humilated in Wisconsin.
Election opinions and analysis
by NMLib on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:10:28 AM PDT
Don't be mean. That's not what Barack would want. I think Hillary has been pretty underhanded during this campaign, but I don't blame that on her supporters. Think of how you felt in that gloomy period between New Hampshire and South Carolina...And their position is that much harder.
Obamascrapbook Send it to all your friends and family! Obama/Biden '08!
by jenontheshore on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:13:31 AM PDT
Even if I weren't backing Obama, I'd be saying the same thing, it is no longer reasonable that Hillary Clinton has a reasonable shot at the nomination without big victories in Texas and Ohio. I said the same thing about John Edwards before the Iowa caucus, somethings are "must-wins", and this is one of them.
by NMLib on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:19:16 AM PDT
against her is a sham. If the tables were turned and Obama had just lost 11 in a row, Hillary would be the nominee and running against McCain. She's only still in the race because she is Hillary Clinton.
by Slatersan on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:26:05 AM PDT
Texas and Ohio haven't voted yet. While the polls do show that Clinton is very unlikely to win Texas and Ohio by the requisite margins (and in fact, suggest she may not win them both at all), those states haven't voted yet.
It's not really reasonable to suggest her campaign is over until they do.
by Justanothernyer on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:36:40 AM PDT
But the fat lady is warming up.
by Same As It Ever Was on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:36:45 PM PDT
Just like it was reasonable to declare John Edwards campaign finished even though only one state had voted. Even before his crushing loss in Nevada and his third place in South Carolina, I could've told you it was effectively over for him (despite both states being reasonably favorable to him [Nevada with the strong union presence and a home-court advantage in South Carolina]). You might not agree with me, and I respect and encourage it, but I believe I am standing on pretty solid grounds, it's semantics at this point.
by NMLib on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:08:17 PM PDT
it's just a question of when is appropriate to call it.
by Justanothernyer on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:51:57 PM PDT
I think what he said was that if he were in Clinton's shoes, people would be asking him to quit. The point being, people are giving Clinton more breathing room because she was the presumptive nominee for so long (and a sort of incumbent to boot).
Founder of the Committee to Save asdf
by droogie6655321 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:12:15 AM PDT
by Sparkalepsy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:42:15 AM PDT
do you have a quote? you've been saying it for weeks? i doubt he would've made any such comments before winning 11 contest in a row (just over 1 week ago).
Cure This : Let's talk about health justice
by nalin on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:22:56 PM PDT
might want to update your diary as today's Gallup tracking poll shows Obama up by 5 points over HRC -- 48 to 43 (they were tied at 46 yesterday).
by True Independent on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:07:28 AM PDT
We've seen each candidate's numbers tick one direction, then the other all through this primary. It's fascinating.
I think these two candidates are such yin and yang to each other, just as one pulls ahead, days later people start to favor the other candidate.
by catfish on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:13:55 AM PDT
10 straight is not a Yin and Yang, its a down and out.
Next week Hillary people will be telling us why Ohio and Texas really weren't that important.
We shall overcome, someday. Yes we can.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:29:39 AM PDT
but let's hope (there's that word again) for the best.
by elmo on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:07:35 PM PDT
IMO is the sooner the party choses the Obama the nominee and unifies, the better.
by Sam Wise Gingy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 01:41:45 PM PDT
I think the best result would be for Clinton to withdraw once it is clear she can't overtake Obama in pledged delegates.
by elmo on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 02:58:31 PM PDT
by Sam Wise Gingy on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 06:25:41 PM PDT
Eleven to zero over the past three weeks. Closest margin of victory 18%.
Yea, lots of ticking one way and another there.
by pletzs on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:31:28 AM PDT
only reason I pointed Gallup out was because the diarist used yesterday's Gallup numbers as evidence to support his or her argument. Those numbers are different now and I thought the diarist might want to correct his or her diary to reflect that.
by True Independent on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:04:33 PM PDT
The Gallup numbers are different every day.
They're all over the place, because this primary has been.
by catfish on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 12:37:49 PM PDT
I thought you deserved a tip for a thoughtful diary on your candidate. I appreciate that you didn't feel the need to say anything bad about Obama.
by sand805 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:24:48 AM PDT
wide narrow
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