View Story | 156 comments
Comments: Expand Shrink Hide (Always) | Indented Flat (Always)
Hillary is now more than half way to the prize.
Guess what. Kossacks continue to be very rude. I am for Obama, but I'm not a Kossack.
by DCDemocrat on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:18:39 AM PDT
so says the article you've linked to:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton held onto a relatively small lead over Sen. Barack Obama. However, there were still outstanding delegates to be awarded in Illinois and Georgia, where Obama fared well. A total of 1,681 delegates were at stake in 22 states and American Samoa. There were 139 still to be awarded. link
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton held onto a relatively small lead over Sen. Barack Obama. However, there were still outstanding delegates to be awarded in Illinois and Georgia, where Obama fared well.
A total of 1,681 delegates were at stake in 22 states and American Samoa. There were 139 still to be awarded. link
Aren't you making the same mistake that you accuse others of doing when you claim "Hillary won 30 more delegates than Obama" as if the count given in the artilce were the official final+full count (your phrase "but truth always gets its day" suggests that you're convinced Clinton will lead in the final count of delegates from Feb'5th)?
Before the full official count, all we have are estimates, and most of those estimates seem to show that when all is said and done, Obama may end up with a slight edge in the delegate count from super Tuesday. No?
Evan Bayh is a McCain/Lieberman clone.
by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:35:44 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Turns out, the delegates from some of the states Obama did well in aren't OFFICIALLY awarded until later---but of course, you have to count the "pledged" superdelegates as if they were "officially" bound to vote for a certain candidate.
"For a man who will turn 72 this month, he's a surprisingly immature politician--erratic, impulsive and subject to peer pressure"-Newsweek.
by Inland on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:33:18 AM PDT
AFAIK, super delegates are allowed to change their mind, notwithstanding their pledges prior to getting to the convention. OTOH, also AFAIK, pledged delegates (i.e. those chosen by regular voters at primaries and causes) are bound to support their assigned candidate in the first round of voting at the convention (but are free to choose someone else in subsequent rounds).
I am with Barack's view that whoever has more pledged delegates from contested primaries and caucuses should be the the nominee.
by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:47:25 AM PDT
either counted only "officially" pledged delegates--leaving out the supers--or included both supers and the delegates yet to be officially certified.
Including the supers as if they were bound and not including the delegates yet to be certified is the source of the error. It's not a consistent method.
by Inland on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:51:58 AM PDT
put out a memo to the media asking them to highlight pledged delegates. Everything else is fluid.
by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:59:51 AM PDT
i started last summer, so it's eight months down and eight months to go in fighting for Hillary. the trouble with Pfloufe's transparent attempt to claim that his candidate won more delegates is that he released hit BEFORE NOON YESTERDAY, and New Mexico has quit counting overnight, to say nothing of the other locations that were still counting. it was a bluff and everyone knew it.
how does he expect to convince people to vote for his candidate by lying to them?
Hillary 2008 - Flying Monkey Squadron 283
by campskunk on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:31:12 AM PDT
That alone shows who really won on Super Tuesday. Obama overcame whopping double digit deficits to pull into a draw by that day. Thanks for your comment exposing that fact (I am RECing it!).
by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:35:54 AM PDT
see how it's close earlier in january? the data you cherrypicked (1/20) is the lead hillary built up when people saw he couldn't close the deal after winning iowa. she beat him in new hampshire. the widening lead she has over the past days will expand because obama once again shows on 2/5 that he can't close the deal. he had every resource he needed to put her away, and yet voters just aren't buying it.
by campskunk on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:53:29 AM PDT
Obama campaign wasn't thumping it's chest about NH prospects. Obama was trailing by some 10-20% in Dec polls for NH, and by 4.5% in January polls before IA. He ended up losing by 2%, which was a strong showing.
"the widening lead she has over the past days will expand"
Keep dreaming and spinning :)
The gap widened in your own graph after NH and NV to 20% (he was faring even worse among Feb'5 states), but it was a flat out tie on election day, 2/5/08.
"because obama once again shows on 2/5 that he can't close the deal."
He did close the deal by pulling from 20% deficits into a tie.
"he had every resource he needed to put her away, and yet voters just aren't buying it."
Clinton came in with a 25% advantage from the name recognition she has had, but as of now, all told. Obama has polled more votes (popular votes) all contested races taken together, and probably more regular people chose pledged delegates as well (as should become clear once the dust settles on delegate counting process for Feb'5 states).
Obama is overcoming the dominating Clinton name recognition and the mighty Clinton machine, rather impressively.
by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 06:08:53 AM PDT
It wouldn't matter if he closed in from 40 points down - she held, instead of crumbling, and the tide will go out as it came in.
The best fortress is to be found in the love of the people - Niccolo Machiavelli
by al Fubar on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 06:18:47 AM PDT
and settle for a tie when the votes were counted. A colossal collapse, in fact.
by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 06:22:18 AM PDT
that when Hillary gets real voters and real delegates she's mistaken. IF a tree fall in the forest and no one hears it, is she still wrong?
Hillary - Alternative Energy
by anna shane on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 10:33:06 AM PDT
nt
He's not an African American candidate, he's and American candidate. - Jean Weiss on CNN
by vernonbc on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:18:04 AM PDT
and very ill-informed.
by Skaje on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:33:52 AM PDT
but I really don't think that "hide rating" of diarist's tip jar is warranted. A request/suggestion asking DCDem to suitably update the diary would be a better approach, IMO.
by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:53:58 AM PDT
is unhelpful. Under the old system, I'd drop a 2 or 3 in the tip jar. Not worth a HR though. Just going to lead to people uprating.
by Skaje on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:06:48 AM PDT
Meet John McCain.
by DelRPCV on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:07:55 AM PDT
by a wolf raised by boys on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:44:36 AM PDT
doesn't lead to anything good.
by Skaje on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 06:01:17 AM PDT
It makes a huge difference exactly which delegates are being counted, which is partially why the various totals lack uniformity.
• The following news orgs, meanwhile, are electing to present their current tally including super-delegates as they await ongoing returns. Done this way... • ABC finds that Hillary leads, 1,038-940. • CBS finds that Hillary leads 1,044 to 966. • The Washington Post finds Hillary leading 1,000 to 902. • And the Associated Press finds Hillary leading 845-765.
• The following news orgs, meanwhile, are electing to present their current tally including super-delegates as they await ongoing returns. Done this way...
• ABC finds that Hillary leads, 1,038-940.
• CBS finds that Hillary leads 1,044 to 966.
• The Washington Post finds Hillary leading 1,000 to 902.
• And the Associated Press finds Hillary leading 845-765.
But, then again, super-delegates can change. In which case it might be a good idea to factor them out. And that yields different results.
• NBC News has done projections based on yesterday's returns, and they are projecting that last night, once all the votes are counted and the delegates apportioned across the districts, Obama won with 840-849 delegates, against Hillary's 829-839 delegates. NBC concludes that Obama is winning in total pledged delegates, too: Obama has 903-912 delegates, and Hillary has 877-885. When super delegates are factored in, however, NBC finds that Hillary edges into a lead, with approximately 1,145 total versus 1,082 for Obama. • CNN's method is a bit different. They are not projecting delegate outcomes that haven't been fully determined. Rather, their numbers are based on where their current tallying stands now, as we await all the returns. Done this way, CNN says that Hillary and Obama are basically tied in pledged delegates, 625-624
• NBC News has done projections based on yesterday's returns, and they are projecting that last night, once all the votes are counted and the delegates apportioned across the districts, Obama won with 840-849 delegates, against Hillary's 829-839 delegates.
NBC concludes that Obama is winning in total pledged delegates, too: Obama has 903-912 delegates, and Hillary has 877-885. When super delegates are factored in, however, NBC finds that Hillary edges into a lead, with approximately 1,145 total versus 1,082 for Obama.
• CNN's method is a bit different. They are not projecting delegate outcomes that haven't been fully determined. Rather, their numbers are based on where their current tallying stands now, as we await all the returns. Done this way, CNN says that Hillary and Obama are basically tied in pledged delegates, 625-624
"You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound
by machopicasso on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:22:47 AM PDT
I have been trying to make some sense of the differences in the various accounts without success. I appreciate the help.
Now if I can only figure out how in the helll the Texas system (where I live) is suppossed to work, I'll have some chance of sleeping again.
God and ego are not equivalent expressions of reality.
by Othniel on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:31:49 AM PDT
your numbers are way way off, you forgot 139 delegates.
People decide on Hillary, and then they find reasons why she is superior. They make up fake math, re-write her resume, talk about 35 years of experience, forget about all the welfare reform and nafta. You make the facts fit your beliefs.
Private Property is the Curse. Those that Buy and Sell Land, and are landlords, have got it either by Oppression, Murder, or Theft
by pacific ocean park on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:35:31 AM PDT
will ultimately be...close. I will concede that she is still the most likely going to be the nominee in the end mostly because the DNC screwed up the Florida and Michigan thing so badly.
But I fear you cheer for the demise of the Democratic Party. Obama is right. Many will not vote for her who vote would vote for him. And the converse is not nearly as true. He doesn’t have her baggage.
Personally I will not vote for anyone in any future election who wishes to be part of the problem rather that part of the solution on the critical issue of lobbyists and industry PACs. She, like Obama, could have responded positively to Edwards’ challenge to all Democratic candidates not to accept such filthy money, but she could not. She is a corporatist and it is neither in my economic best interest nor in the ecological best interest of my descendants to lend my support such candidates.
For my entire life adult life I have watched Republicans and Republicans-lites ignore the needs of our People, in particular the need for ecological sanity for the sake our offspring, in favor of those evil institutions who fill their political coffers. If I can help it, I will not see yet another generation of energized young change seekers disappointed the way we were in 1992.
It is long past time for the Democratic Party to take a definitive stand. Are we the Party of the People.....or just the other Party of the Corporacracy? 2008 will give me my definitive answer and I will act accordingly in order to restore my own integrity if nothing else.
by David Nichols on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:40:30 AM PDT
wide narrow
View Story | 156 comments