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View Diary: Obama, Electibility and the Rev. Wright (162 comments)

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  •  Two things. (0+ / 0-)
    1. Those aren't unfavorable polls, those are head-to-head national polls.  The former is significant, and the latter is meaningless.
    1. A 4 point drop is insignificant is a race like this.  Note that Clinton dropped 3 points on 3/10, 2/28, 2/13, 2/11, and 2/04; also, she dropped 4 points (which, by your measure, is a sign of utter disaster) on Valentine's Day, which was the tail end of a cataclysmic 12 point freefall from where she was only 4 days earlier.

    The fact is, national polling numbers are a snapshot, and don't provide enough information to really be informative.

    But thanks for playing; we have some lovely parting gifts.

    There are people who say, "If music's that easy to write, I could do it." Of course they could, but they don't. - John Cage

    by RoscoeOfAlabama on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 12:39:29 PM PDT

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    •  so obnoxious, Roscoe (0+ / 0-)

      Try letting yourargument stand on its own--people will be less likely to dismiss you as a jerk

      •  "Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn." n/t (0+ / 0-)

        There are people who say, "If music's that easy to write, I could do it." Of course they could, but they don't. - John Cage

        by RoscoeOfAlabama on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:47:38 PM PDT

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        •  self-indulgence (0+ / 0-)

          is one of the reasons the Left in America fails to win even when conditions are auspicious--"I don't care if its effective, I want to say whatever I feel like saying."  It's the politics of spoiled brats.

          •  When the most extreme of Clinton's supporters (0+ / 0-)

            on this site stopped accepting reality, I stopped caring what they thought of me.

            Really, the nomination is sealed; if you can't do the math on your own, I'm not interested in your opinion.

            There are people who say, "If music's that easy to write, I could do it." Of course they could, but they don't. - John Cage

            by RoscoeOfAlabama on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 11:09:30 PM PDT

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            •  Wah-wah. Take ball, go home (0+ / 0-)

              Obviously, Roscoe, it's not sealed or all the flopsweat coming off these pages wouldn't be here.  I posted a more realistic math response to another of your comments.  If you want to be arrogant, at least show that you understand how the numbers work.
              Obama is the favorite.  He still has work to do.  And if something unexpected happens in the next two-three months, anything can ahppen in regard to superdelegates, as is true if he blows a very important speech on race and religion.

              It is a Kossite version of reality that the Clinton campaign is now jsut a charade.  Groupthink is reassuring but the wiser heads in the Obama campaign surely know how dangerous it can be.

    •  The Polls are Showing the Fallout (0+ / 0-)

      I'm sorry but the polls are very much showing the fallout from the Wright affair. Here's the key finding from the poll cited and linked to by cioxx and it's pretty damning no matter how you try to ignore or excuse it.

      Saturday, March 15, 2008

      The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton essentially even in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. It’s Obama 46% Clinton 45% (see recent daily results). This reflects an unusually sharp change from yesterday’s results when Obama led by eight points and reached the 50% level of support for the first time. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Last night’s results were very favorable for Clinton and it remains to be seen whether this marks a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise. Single night results are based upon very small samples and are more volatile than the overall tracking poll.

      Looking to November, John McCain now holds a slight lead over both Democrats in the General Election. It’s McCain 47% Obama 42% and McCain 46% Clinton 42% (see recent daily results). It appears that Clinton’s challenges to Obama may be helping McCain at least in the short-term. McCain’s polling numbers against Obama began improving during the run-up to the hard-fought Democratic Primaries in Ohio and Texas. Obama has a three-percentage point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters but is currently supported by just 65% of Democrats. By way of comparison, McCain earns the vote from 80% of Republicans.

      ***

      Nationally, McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 41%. Obama is now viewed favorably by 50% of likely voters nationwide, unfavorably by 49%. Clinton earns positive reviews from 47% of Likely Voters nationwide and negative assessments from 51%.

      •  Again (0+ / 0-)

        National head-to-heads are meaningless.  As for unfavorables, read your own damn article:

        Obama is now viewed favorably by 50% of likely voters nationwide, unfavorably by 49%. Clinton earns positive reviews from 47% of Likely Voters nationwide and negative assessments from 51%.

        Oh, and while we're reading the entire article, let's review this nugget from the analysis of the oh so important national head-to-heads:

        Last night’s results were very favorable for Clinton and it remains to be seen whether this marks a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise.

        Again, considering both candidates have had multiple 3 to 4 point drops in the last few months, my guess would be the latter.

        There are people who say, "If music's that easy to write, I could do it." Of course they could, but they don't. - John Cage

        by RoscoeOfAlabama on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:51:17 PM PDT

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        •  What you say I said (0+ / 0-)

          You've put words in my mouth that I didn't say. I did not say that Obama's unfavorable numbers were higher than Hillary's. I only said that Obama's poll numbers in at least one poll dropped significantly after the Wright matter had been reported. And that's indeed the case. And then we have the use of your favorite debating technique - the unsupported assertion: "National head-to-heads are meaningless." Why is that? You don't say. Because you said it, then it must be the case? Surely, that can't be your answer. Now if I was a cynic, I might think that your view on their meaningless would be quite different if Obama were way ahead of Hillary instead of being essentially tied.

          •  I'm glad you're not a cynic (0+ / 0-)

            because if you were, I could make you look very foolish right now:

            National polls are still meaningless. (0 / 0)

            As much as I like seeing my guy on top, neither Rassmussen nor Gallup awards delegates, so it doesn't matter.

            There are people who say, "If music's that easy to write, I could do it." Of course they could, but they don't. - John Cage

            by RoscoeOfAlabama on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 03:36:25 PM CDT

            As for "Obama's poll numbers in at least one poll dropped significantly after the Wright matter had been reported", I've addressed that here:

            A 4 point drop is insignificant is a race like this.  Note that Clinton dropped 3 points on 3/10, 2/28, 2/13, 2/11, and 2/04; also, she dropped 4 points (which, by your measure, is a sign of utter disaster) on Valentine's Day, which was the tail end of a cataclysmic 12 point freefall from where she was only 4 days earlier.

            If you take both of those comments in their totality, you get my rationale for disregarding national head-to-heads ("national polling numbers are a snapshot" and "neither Rassmussen nor Gallup awards delegates").

            Obviously, large scale trends are noteworthy; for example, if Obama were to drop 10 points in head-to-heads over the course of a week or so, that would be significant, but it would be predated by a precipitous rise in unfavorables and/or drop in favorables.  Thus, these polls aren't particularly predictive, so until we abolish the electoral college and institute a national primary, national head-to-head polling is little more than trvia.

            There are people who say, "If music's that easy to write, I could do it." Of course they could, but they don't. - John Cage

            by RoscoeOfAlabama on Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 02:58:52 PM PDT

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