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there is still a serious race for the Democratic nomination?
by Justanothernyer on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:34:55 PM PDT
keep expectations in check; the Clintons excel at playing the expectations game [guess you kinda have to when your candidate sucks] but lets try and beat them at their own game here - for once!
by Timothy J on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:38:55 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
or it's a victory for us.... -Barack Obama (paraphrase)
"Politics is a lousy way to get things done."
by DetroitBuckeye on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:45:31 PM PDT
a pipe dream for Hillary at the moment...unless PA voters are totally stupid. It depends, in large part, on voter turnout in the population centers...she's got a good handle on the rural vote.
Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
by darthstar on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:51:28 PM PDT
I support Hillary and I'm pretty sure I'm not "totally stupid." And, the other half of the Dem base isn't "totally stupid" either.
by DetroitBuckeye on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:55:17 PM PDT
but surely pretty conflicted...
Detroit "BUCKEYE"????
by z adura on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:58:35 PM PDT
by DetroitBuckeye on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:08:01 PM PDT
Yikes...Exploding Big 10 heads everywhere.
Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. Martin Luther King Jr.
by wishingwell on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:09:06 PM PDT
when you went to OSU. However, the last seven years have been pretty easy. Go Tressel!
by DetroitBuckeye on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 08:39:35 AM PDT
Why do you necessarily have to be wrong just because a few million people think you are? ~ Frank Zappa
by alliedoc on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 06:16:48 AM PDT
It's probably realistic. The demographics in PA (on the face of it) probably are going to cut in her favor. If you look at Pittsburgh's mayoral race last year, I think that might be a preview of what you see in the primary.
by robertgp124 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:00:22 PM PDT
but secretly I hope for it to be within 1-2%. Or a win, that'd just be awesome.
that said for a state his campaign isn't expecting to win, he's got a huge ground game. 29 offices and counting, statewide. Clinton, not so much. 5 last I heard.
Central PA Kossacks"Obama can hope all over me!" Si se fucking puede!
by terrypinder on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:10:07 PM PDT
A win would be awesome. Something within 5 points, super. Within 1-2% - you've got to credit him with one heck of an incredible ground game.
by robertgp124 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:27:58 PM PDT
with a city whose populace tends not to even vote, they registered thousands.
They also turned Clinton Co., a rural county in north central PA which technically is solid Clinton Country and is hard core Republican territory, blue by several hundred votes. the voter registration efforts here are just amazing and inspiring. I'm excited about it and more excited for what they'll mean downticket.
by terrypinder on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:32:25 PM PDT
I am proud to say and it was great. We just went door to door where there were independents and I would estimate that I personally registered about 100 in a day (as democrats). I noticed that a lot of independents were really democrats but had registered in republican drives. They noticed that the volunteers didn't seem interested in them when they said they were democrats so they chose independent in fear that the application would disappear if it had a D box checked.
I actually didn't take the applications but left them.
by alliedoc on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 06:22:53 AM PDT
10% in PA
Obama wins by 15% in NC
and in IN it comes close.. Obama 52% Clinton 47%
McSame = 4 more years of BUSH
by gnwmann on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 07:04:08 PM PDT
that Philly and its suburbs and as well as Pittsburgh and its suburbs and Penn State has registered tons of new voters ( and the faculty is overwhelmingly for Obama) will counterract the other areas of the state where Clinton is strong. As she is quite popular in Wilkes Barre, Scranton, and in other smaller, rural regions.
by wishingwell on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:08:09 PM PDT
I'm going to see if I can make it there and then home in time to see him in the 'burg, and then maybe take Monday off to see him in Lancaster.
I'm wondering if they'll move it to Beaver Stadium---20,000 people are expected.
by terrypinder on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:11:24 PM PDT
very very close or win Pennsylvania. The latest Rasmussen poll has Clinton 49%, Obama 39% (dated March-24). Plus, Obama is just getting started in PA. Tickets for his speech in Pittsburgh had the line around the block 300 strong for hours. I am feeling very good about Obama's chances.
With the very high expectations that Clinton has set for herself, anything less than 15 points would be a defeat and less than ten an embarrassment. If she outright loses, she should withdraw.
by alliedoc on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 06:12:13 AM PDT
by dan667 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:54:45 PM PDT
and do the same in all of the remaining states, or she can never catch up in earned delegates. It's not an expectations game, it's just a fact.
by elmo on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:13:38 PM PDT
Neither candidate will have the requisite pledged delegates by the convention. How about perpetuating the idea that fighters don't just walk away when they are being in the count.
by DetroitBuckeye on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:44:26 PM PDT
happen for Senator Clinton to win?
by Justanothernyer on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:49:10 PM PDT
both candidates going into the convention with a narrow margin in pledged delegates and total votes, with Hillary having won almost every big swing state. Enough superdelegates may view that as sufficient for them to go with her as the stronger candidate against McCain. People were dancing on her grave after Iowa and Feb 5. I'm glad she didn't listen to the chattering class telling her to drop out back then.
by DetroitBuckeye on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:53:32 PM PDT
Primary votes =/= GE votes. Texas is not going blue with Hillary (McCain's polling waaaay ahead of her,) and it would be a huge effort to get it into the Dem column with Obama.
NY, CA, MA, NJ, and IL are safely blue. They'll be Democratic no matter what.
What does that leave you with? Ohio? Ohio is going to be an uphill struggle either way - but with the economy going the way it is, I'd imagine it'll go Dem in November with some effort.
The truth is, the safely Dem states will stay safely Dem.
The superdelegates are ultimately less concerned about "the swing states" than they are keeping their own jobs. They'll look at who's going to be better at the top of the ticket. And the unequivocal answer to that at the moment is Barack Obama.
Self preservation will trump national party politics every time.
We...join arm in arm and decide we are going to remake this country block by block, precinct by precinct, county by county, state by state - that's what hope is.
by DemocraticOz on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:58:32 PM PDT
by Justanothernyer on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:03:10 PM PDT
by DetroitBuckeye on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:10:01 PM PDT
down at Home Depot getting more kitchen sinks as we speak? Planning her next big round of lowering the national discourse? That's the only way "at the moment" will mean anything different in August than it does now.
In the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by alkalinesky on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:57:22 PM PDT
Axelrod and Plouffe have engaged in an all-out assault on Hillary's campaign and on her personally. I don't see how their attacks are raising the national discourse, frankly. And Hillary's "kitchen sink" approach is not the only way that things can change. Who would have ever seen the Wright thing coming out the way it did? I think Obama handled it very well (and proved some things to me about him in the process), but the way he handles other issues in the following weeks might have a different outcome. There will be at least one debate, I believe, which could turn heads. There could be a major endorsement coming for Hillary (ahem, Gore) that changes things. Etc., etc.
by DetroitBuckeye on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 08:55:54 AM PDT
Those solid blue states she won will stay blue.
Texas may go blue in the future but it seems far too soon for that, more work and time is needed there for that to fully happen, I think.
Obama has a clearer shot at Colorado, Iowa, Virginia than Clinton has and a chance to change those states blue that were red for Bush.
by wishingwell on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:13:24 PM PDT
all politics is local. Which means even the superdelegates ignore their constituents at their peril.
Look, he's right. There are several states that will NOT be in play for each party. And the safely Dem states are not gonna switch based on Hillary and Obama.
Now, if the Dem Party can just unite and fight the real enemy!
by gnwmann on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 07:07:13 PM PDT
McCain could take those states from Obama, but not Hillary. We've seen the impact of those states in the general before, obviously.
by DetroitBuckeye on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 08:57:36 AM PDT
I don't know what you consider a narrow margin, but so far there has been no evidence that the supers are willing to overturn any margin of victory in pledged delegate.
And, with respect, winning states in primaries (whether big or small, swing or otherwise) has nothing to do with electability.
As for superdelegates viewing her as the stronger candidate against McCain, she does worse in the polls, her fundraising is less, all analyses of the race on a state by state basis show her doing worse than Obama and she managed to start with a commanding lead which she lost. Why should any superdelegate (or anyone else) view her as more electable?
If people were dancing on her grave after Iowa or Feb 5, that was stupid. (And I heard no one arguing she should drop out after either date.) She wasn't behind in any meaningful way, relative to the amount of the race still to be run.
by Justanothernyer on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:02:34 PM PDT
but they don't lead to the conclusion that this is not still a serious race, which is what I was responding to originally.
by DetroitBuckeye on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:11:48 PM PDT
letting this go as far as the convention. Maybe even Al Gore and Jimmy Carter will have to come in and form a mediation board as suggested by Governor Bresede ( sp?) who has suggested this.
I could be very wrong but I do not think the superdelegates are going to sit idly by until the convention to declare, either as that means we cannot adequately fight McCain and the right wing 527 ads until September...far too late to get moving on that.
by wishingwell on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:11:31 PM PDT
by DetroitBuckeye on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:13:03 PM PDT
it depends on the definition of " serious".
by wishingwell on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:14:46 PM PDT
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
John McCain '08 - Hope Less!
by kitebro on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:32:25 PM PDT
someone asked them to be quiet, so it's just a matter of time before all hell breaks loose - Brian Andreas
by Altoid77 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 04:21:59 PM PDT
this not being a serious race. That's just inconceivable ;)
by DetroitBuckeye on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 08:58:55 AM PDT
I think it's going to need to be in the neighborhood of 70% of them. That's a tough neighborhood, you know.
by elmo on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:15:19 PM PDT
Maybe someone who puts the party's and the country's interests above her own?
We are not exempt from history.
by MrJayTee on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:56:19 PM PDT
and the Obama responses very respectful. We have to pull together in the fall, whatever the outcome. I just don't believe the polls that say that 28% HRC voters will vote McCain in the fall (or the comparable Obama number). Give me a break? These people will mostly vote for the democrat. The key will be turnout (as usual).
So, what do you think about Michigan? Disenfranchised? Will they go blue in November?
by alliedoc on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 06:28:35 AM PDT
it's not over until halfway through his nomination speech, at the earliest.
Ha. ;)
"Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz
by RBH on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:56:39 PM PDT
Hillary will not drop out. She is going as GWB says "NUCULAR" or as others say "Tonya Harding" or "Shock and Awe".
She will not stop until she is president. Nothing will stop her. She feels she is entitled to the presidency.
There are NO firewalls. There is no Obama! There is no McCain! This is Hillary's presidency!
She will not be denied. There is no exit strategy. She will destroy anybody who stands in her way.
It makes me sick!
by TheFreeFallingDollar on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:57:22 PM PDT
also - anyone with an ego big enough to run for POTUS feels that way. Let's not kid ourselves.
by DetroitBuckeye on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:14:24 PM PDT
does not equal entitlement. He does not feel entitled it to it. He is ahead and surely much , much closer to the nomination that she is. But that does not equal " entitlement".
by wishingwell on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:16:13 PM PDT
that is very naive. He ran for president at an early age without much experience. He feels entitled, you better believe it. And so does Hillary. I wasn't born yesterday, and neither were you.
by DetroitBuckeye on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:24:07 PM PDT
throughout the entire primary season.
by kitebro on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:33:54 PM PDT
that should be pretty obvious by now.
by GN1927 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 04:13:05 PM PDT
in the off chance she gets the nomination I'll still vote for her, but her campaign won't get a dime from me.
by terrypinder on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 03:17:56 PM PDT
that he must quickly eliminate Clinton and her negative campaigning as quickly as possible. It is not a race to win but a race to move on to GE mentality.
That's why.
by alliedoc on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 06:15:13 AM PDT
wide narrow
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