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  •  if not victory than defeat (3+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Jagger, 8ackgr0und N015e, mofembot

    That's what Israel can't accept, but it's a basic logical conclusion. If you cannot defeat Hamas, or anybody for that matter, given that the world community will not allow any wars to conclusion in that region, then you are looking at various stages of defeat as your only alternative. You can even perk up your option by adding the possibility of a draw. But Israelis by and large can't deal wtih that, fearing, quite reasonably that given the great disapratiy in numbers and resoucrces, that once Israel starts to lose, it is only a matter of time until they cease to exist, much like the Crusader state started to lose in 1186 or so, but only ceased to exist in 1291 after a protracted rearguard action of castle warfare. Israel can do the same - sit behind the walls and watch the enemy advance ever closer, but in the end, if they start to lose, they will lose. So when Carter comes in there and tells them that they have to accept whatever organization forcibly takes power among the Palestinians, and admit that they have no control over the Palestinian situation, then he is going to run into a wall of denial. Because as along as Israel is at least in denial about losing, then the long road of defeat has not started yet.

    Do not rejoice in Hitler's defeat, for though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the bitch that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

    by Marcion on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 11:39:22 AM PDT

    •  so lets summarize (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      dashound

      the ultra racist, genocidal arabs have already won so israel better just surrender real quick.  

    •  You are out of your mind, marcion (3+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      leftynyc, 8ackgr0und N015e, dashound

      The majority of Israelis want a just peace with the Palestinians. In fact, I would contend that the majority of Israel would do practically anything for peace. No, they will not leave, and no they will not give Jerusalem to the Palestinians.

      And, I know I will take some flack for saying this, let us not forget who is the legitimate nation-state and who is the insurgent, freedom fighting rebel. Granted, I would generally side with the rebel, freedom fighting insurgent, but I would not have sided with the South during the US Civil War, and I would not side with the Palestinians' campaign of violence. Most importantly, if one truly want peace, one must give up fighting old battles. No one is asking you to forgive or forget, but just agree to move forward together in peace.

      And, by the way, all the blame can not be laid at the feet of Israel, much of the blame rests with US and British foreign policy and more than is acknowledged in your post must be shared by the Arab and Muslim states who have never treated 'refugee' Palestinians like people, let alone citizens, and who used the issue to deflect away from their own domestic difficulties. In other words, there is more than enough blame to go around.

      •  i'm not blaming anybody (0+ / 0-)

        I think calling the Arabs genocidal or the Israelis Nazis is pointless. It is completely irrelevant who is to blame, except perhaps that blame is a weapon in the propaganda that is part of the war. What is relevant is that Israel exists as an outpost in a hostile sea, and if it starts falling back, there's is no stopping the retreat given the disparity in positions. This breeds a backs to the wall desperation among Israeils and makes them reluctant to make concessions to the Palestians to achieve peace.
        The big problem with the Israeli Palestinian peace process is that it only makes sense for one side at a time. The Israelis would gladly take a peace that is permanent and confirms their possession of the land they currently hold, or even slightly less. But of the Palestinians, this makes sense only as a temporary solution, a means to get the Israeli forces away from them long enough for the Palestinians to regroup and prepare for the next phase of the struggle. The Palestinian goals, given all the factors favoring them, are a short term truce, the gain of as much terroritory as they can, to place them in a better position for the next phase of the offensive. Peace in itself is not a goal, except for short term respite, victory is the goal for each side.

        This is the key mistake that outside peacemakers make going into the Middle East - peace in itself is just a platitude, somethign that sounds good, but it doesnt' satisfy anybody unless it is the peace taht comes after their victory. Otherwise it's just a ceasefire that will last until the power balance shifts a bit more. It is the sort of peace that the Americans would conclude with the various Indian tribes on their borders, a peace designed long enough for more settlers to move in and to get ready for the next phase of expansioin. Except in this case, the Indians are in on the game, they too push for peace to build up their strength for the next push against the settlers.

        Do not rejoice in Hitler's defeat, for though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the bitch that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

        by Marcion on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:05:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not sure I accept your premise. (0+ / 0-)

          There is no doubt there are extreme elements on all sides that would vindicate your formulation.  But they betray the aspirations of the people they claim to champion.

          The fact is most Israelis would trade land for peace.  In spite of that, in spite of Israeli Supreme Court rulings, the rightwing has continued to make matters worse by grabbing land and making impossible claims.   The fact is most Palestinians, prior to Sharon's brutal Operation Defensive Shield, would have supported some settlement with Israel.  That offensive gutted any civil society or civil government that might have been able to offer an alternative to groups like Hamas.  Unfortunately, that left a void which Hamas filled.    That reality is not going to disappear regardless of how brutal things get.

          If you don't address that, then you are just waiting for demographics to overrun you.  

          •  why? (0+ / 0-)

            Ask yourself, why would the Palestinians accept an Israeli presence if it was not forced on them? It's obvious why Israel wants peace, they got most of what they wanted and now they want to enjoy it in peace. But the Palestinians would only accept a temporary peace because they cannot hope at this moment to win anything greater, which peace they will violate as soon as the balance of power shifts to permit them to gain more territory, power and wealth. Humans are logical and selfish creatures, and not peaceful by nature. This is why any peace for land is simply going to be a short term solution that will set the stage for the next round of combat on terms less favorable to Israel.

            Ask yourself, is an occupier took the best part of your land, and then gave you back a little bit to live on, would this reconcile you to the presence of the occupier? Wouldn't you want to change the terms of the division once you were stronger and the occupier weaker?

            Do not rejoice in Hitler's defeat, for though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the bitch that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

            by Marcion on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:25:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Perhaps, but the reality is (0+ / 0-)

              Israel will always be militarily stronger.  The Cherokee, Creek, Seminole, Chickasaw and Choctaw all reached an accomodation with the United States... until some white guys found gold in Georgia and the US decided it was best for the natives if they packed their bags and moved to the other side of the Applachian Mountains.

              There is precedence for this.  

              •  the situation is not static (0+ / 0-)

                If your assumption is correct, and the balance of power remains unchanged, then a permanent peace is possible. But I fear Israeli invincibility is a propaganda myth of Israeil construction, as we can see even in the case of Lebanon, which was once a weak and undefended country but last year handed Israel its first defeat, things change. The Arab nations did much better in 1973 than in 1967. And with insurgency tactics improving and becoming more effecrive every year, I think guerilla armies like Hamas will soon be in a position to challenge the Israeli Army just as Hizbollah did. And once the balance shifts, a peace agreement will be a piece of paper, and the concessions made to secure it will be wasted sacrifice.

                Do not rejoice in Hitler's defeat, for though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the bitch that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

                by Marcion on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 01:50:57 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  If you view this as strictly an occupation (0+ / 0-)

                  then your analysis makes sense -- to a point.  However, the international recognition of Israel as a sovereign nation moots that argument -- outside of the occupied territories.  

                  Here's the problem with your analysis:  Before Saddam was removed, the only legitimate argument Likud had for not recognizing an independent Palestinian state was they were little more than a forward base for Saddam.  However, once he was deposed that argument dried up.   Sharon's invasion in 2002 just added a new justification to why they could never allow an independent Palestinian nation.  Talk about moving the goal posts.

                  The reality is that Palestinians, especially in Gaza, would be better off with a peaceful relationship with Israel.   Unfortunately, there are segments of Israel's society that make huge money off the continued conflict.  So they are not going to enable any efforts on the Palestinian side to deflate it.  On the Palestinian side there are segments that only maintain power because of the conflict, they are not interested in solving it either.  Caught in the middle are the vast majority of people who would be happy to get on with their lives.

                •  the arabs have moved the goalposts (0+ / 0-)

                  winning wars to the arabs now involves not being completely annhilated and dissolving.  merely being impoverished or losing military capability or being unable to defend the populace is no longer defeat.  whereas in reverse any capability to harm the israeli population is massive victory.  it'll be interesting if the arabs that are being fed the racist propaganda ever get tired of this new extra subtle definition of "victory."

                  •  wow. all the arabs agreed to this? (0+ / 0-)

                    Including Egypt and Jordan?

                    •  oh yah it was a huge meeting (0+ / 0-)

                      lol.  not its just the natural evolution of what it means to win in the arab world.  largely media driven and with almost no economic or military considerations.

                      •  Assymetric warfare (0+ / 0-)

                        What you are describing is nothing new, in assymetric warfare in which the two sides have different capabilities, organizations and goals, it is natural to have different victory conditions. At bottom though, victory is always the same, regardless of whether it was achieved trhough total domination and occupation or though decades of small scale terrorist activities - to destory your enemy's will to make war and to induce them to surrender. The Arabs can achieve this victory through decades of slow bleeding of Israel, while Israel cannot achieve victory by occupying and contrlling the Palestinian lands, as has been shown by decades of fruitless occupation. This is why I said in the beginning that victory for Israel is impossible and any sort of trade of land for peace now would be merely the beginning of a long retreat culminating in surrender.

                        Do not rejoice in Hitler's defeat, for though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the bitch that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

                        by Marcion on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 02:45:39 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

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