funny bit here:

it to the convention. Does anyone see a sudden surge of new donors for her ?

that she will never get to run again because of how dirty and poorly she has run this time.  Therefore, she NEEDS to win this time.  She won't, of course, but she'll try everything to do so, including staying in the race for far too long.

Cell phones and such don't lead to accurate polling and the talking heads are out of touch.

But cutting off the debates is a good move, and Bunton should let folks know why-- because Democratic candidates debate Democratic candidates during primary season.

Hillary isn't one any more, and primary season is over.

campaign ?

in Clinton's favor.

3-4 weeks ago, the meme in play was that Clinton was ahead in the mid-teens in PA and that to really show her chops for those SDs out there (and perhaps have a glimmer of hope of winning the popular vote), she needed to push into the low 20's. In other words, she needed a "boot stomping" victory, the likes of which Obama has done on many occasions in this primary season.

Indeed, with the delegate assignment ratios as they are, a "boot-stomp" is usually the only thing good enough to create a major spread in the delegate count for any single state.

Now, with all the Obama optimism, we've helped lower the goal posts. Now an 5-10 point win by Clinton is going to be able to be spun as a "big win". And what if she does end up with a 12-15 point advantage? It definitely could happen - "late deciders" have broken more for Clinton in the last couple of primary states, esp. Ohio and Texas.

What we're all mutually allowing ourselves to buy into is a new frame that will allow the "expected outcome" of just a couple weeks ago be spun as a "monster win" for Clinton. That was exactly what happened in Ohio and Texas (and yes, I am aware that Obama walked away with more delegates from TX).

My advice - play and act like we're still 15-points down; and quietly hope for a much different outcome. I phonebanked all weekend and called and sent notes to every friend, acquaintance and relative I know of in PA in support of Obama. I'm sure many others posting here have done likewise and/or canvassed door-to-door.

Just don't help the Clintonistas move the goalposts again!

The supers will start their stampede tomorrow.

I wish I could be as sure and sanguine as you seem to be about that. The Supers have shown a seriously impaired backbone to date, imo.

not in percentage terms but in terms of absolute # of voters, and what that does to Obama's lead in the popular vote.

And my bet is, the conventional media follows her.

I've been wondering for a month why he doesn't simply do that.

Maybe Obama thinks she still has a shot, even if nobody here does.

I agree totally. Obama should declare victory and ignore Hillary from now on.

Hillary isn't going to win enough delegates in primaries to give her a victory. That's not what she's campaigning for. She is trying to force Obama into making some catastrophic mistake, and also to generate enough money to keep her campaign alive. Obama needs to avoid both of those by starving her campaign of attention.

After all, how can Obama's Team say that Hillary should have dropped out long ago, when they still treat her as a serious rival, and spend almost all their time defending against her instead of McCain?

It might be a mistake to vow never to respond to the Clintons. Instead Obama should delegate that to some aide, who comes out once a day and reads a standard denial like "We deny everything the Clinton campaign said about us today".

Has so much merit that I am forced by reason to agree with it.  

Why treat her with legitimacy as a candidate when she doesn't have any?  

Treat her like McCain treated Huckabee.  

Treat her like Nader.  

Why not?