Obama will win Gary and northwestern Indiana in a walk. I would think he'll also be strong in all the university cities -- South Bend, Bloomington, Valpo, and hopefully Lafayette as well. And he always does well in urban areas, so Indianapolis should be his as well.

Where would Hillary's base be? Probably southern Indiana and the farmlands, but is there enough population there to counteract all of those cities? I would think not. Plus, she's not going to have a huge amount of money for ads and (more importantly) ground game. Hell, I'm expecting to see lots of Obama ads here in Chicago just so northwestern IN sees them, too.

And, Obama should be a de facto Favorite Son, so if he can't pull this out it really may be a problem.

Let's end it in two weeks, folks.