Daily Kos

View Story | 199 comments

  •  Gosh, this interview reminds me of so many other (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    cris0000

    efforts in the past to cloud the issues.  Gee, I'm just not sure now....maybe biofuels are okay....

    Biofuels are a TOTAL CROCK.  Why is fuel efficiency the "next step"?  Maybe because no big corporation is going to make money on people using less fuel.  Consumers would just save money.  WTF good is that?!

    •  Zubrin should be used to it by now (16+ / 0-)

      Zubrin is the darling of the altspace community for doing exactly what he's trying to do here: allege that the forces that be are missing some obvious, easily solution, then skimming over all of the serious complications that led that "solution" to be unrealistic.

      For example, when he talks about terraforming Mars, he pretends that there's enough CO2 to warm the planet and that you just need a little boost to get it started.  In reality, there's actually very little CO2 on Mars, even in the ice caps (about a meter on the north, about 8 meters on the south), and all simulations show that you need to pump ridiculous amounts of super-greenhouse gasses to warm the planet.  Zubrin then makes up ridiculous reasons for why launch costs -- something that people have been working on lowering for a century -- can just suddenly be slashed by a couple orders of magnitude.  Reasons which don't stand in the face of even the slightest bit of scrutiny.  Then he uses his preposterous launch costs to argue that hey, we can get lots of people there to colonize it!  And then he skims over the monstrous, centuries-long engineering challenges that would be needed to set up a self-sufficient chemical and manufacturing industry.  It's a house of cards that's missing its entire bottom layer.

      Zubrin is doing the exact same thing here.  Food costs have only increased by 4%?  World food prices aren't up 4%; they're up 40%.  Not that Zubrin would care about being wrong by an order of magnitude.

      It's simply ridiculous to think that you can convert a large chunk of the world's farmland -- which is what this would take -- into some other purpose and have food output remain the same.  That's completely beyond the bounds of any serious analysis of the situation.  Even crops grown on marginal lands still consume significant resources, and the amount of land that would need to be converted, especially with China and India's projected growth, is completely unreasonable.

      And here comes yet another problem with the hype of ethanol: it makes for completely irresponsible decisions.  Let's just ignore corn ethanol, and the studies that show that even sugarcane ethanol is bad for global warming.  Let's look at everyone's favorite: cellulosic ethanol made from waste.  What do most of the new cellulosic processes do?  Well, they burn the biomass in a low-oxygen environment to produce syngas -- CO + H2.  They then use some elaborate and rather lossy biological or catalytic process to turn this to ethanol.  Well, gee, that's funny, because syngas has been used for most of a century to produce gasoline.  In a not-very-lossy, relatively simple, direct-catalytic manner.  This is how coal liquefaction, which powered Nazi Germany in WWII and South Africa in the apartheid era works.

      So, why aren't they just turning it into "cellulosic gasoline"?  Because gasoline has a bad connotation, isn't a buzzword, and doesn't get tax breaks.  So they use an inferior solution -- one that requires car conversions, has lower energy density can't be shipped in normal pipelines, and so on -- over a better solution -- for a ridiculous reason.

      Biofuels are not the answer.  The answer is cleaning up our electricity grid (which is an easier problem) and switching over as many transportation miles as possible to electricity (PHEVs and EVs), which is becoming increasingly easy thanks to rapidly advancing battery tech.

      •  Land per Kilowatt is the whole issue (6+ / 0-)

        It's simply ridiculous to think that you can convert a large chunk of the world's farmland -- which is what this would take -- into some other purpose and have food output remain the same.

        This is the big issue.  Corn ethanol is obviously a disaster with an EROEI (energy return on energy invested) of at best 130% (30% more than invested).

        Cellulosic systems promise more but have yet to be proven capable.

        Sometimes folks argue that you don't need good farmland because you can grow algae in the desert... but that takes water, and you may have noticed we have some developing water issues in the U.S.

        The bottom line is that, to maintain current patterns of settlement and industrial activity we need a ready liquid substitute for oil... and we are unlikely to find one in the time frame created by expanding energy use globally and flat (or soon declining) oil production.  

        Peak oil is here... and everyone wants to figure out how to keep running the cars and living just like we do now.   I think that after you add in all the biofuel production, and all the wind farms and all the thermal solar and all the PV solar and all the wave energy and all the new nuclear electricity production it is still going to cost a lot more to drive a mile in a decade or two.  So much more that we will need to rethink our patterns of human settlement in big ways.

        I find it improbable that we can or will devote as much land to the collection of solar energy in biomass as would be required to sustain contemporary levels of energy consumption.  

        •  "rethink our patterns of human settlement in big (3+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          offgrid, SciVo, Andhakari

          ways"

          There already has been a lot of rethinking.  There are solutions.  They aren't being implemented because the easiest and most money is made with development sprawl.  Developers aren't bound by anything.  If a community has a land plan, it will be modified if that's what a developer wants.  They have the same attitude of entitlement that big corporations have.

          Do you hear bitterness in my voice?  Ah, well, I am a Floridian.  50 years of seeing paradise bulldozed will do that.

          •  I hear you... (4+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            Calamity Jean, sweeper, SciVo, Andhakari

            ... I think the rethinking is most likely to come as transportation costs rise and people can only afford to be close to places of work.

            Developers are bound by the willingness of people to buy.  

            The price of oil should reflect the actual cost... which now includes a humongous military protection racket.  Heck, the entire cost of the Iraq war should be paid for by taxes on the price of a barrel of oil sold in the U.S.   That would change patterns of development and much else.  

            •  True to a point. Sometimes the choices given to (0+ / 0-)

              consumers are limited to those that have the greatest profit margin for the seller.  This is another one of those little quirks that make the free market less than free.

      •  nicely said, thanks (1+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        lotlizard

        i hadn't heard of this guy before but i got the impression there is some serious handwaving going on - good to know it's part of a pattern.

        --
        Q: But what does death need time for?
        A: Death needs time for what it kills to grow in!

        by ahpook on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 10:11:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  All together now: What Rei said. (3+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        lotlizard, offgrid, CalGal47

        Thank you, sir/madam, for a measure of sanity in this nutcase silliness of a front-page diary.

        http://cleantechantics.blogspot.com

        by mateosf on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 10:49:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This is the second time Zubrin has been featured. (2+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          mateosf, mattinjersey

          It's frustrating, b/c he's pedaling such tripe.  Biofuels are a fool's errand.  Food per capita has been declining for the past several years, and you suddenly want to start diverting even more to biofuels?  It's suicide.  I really hope I never seem him here on this blog again.

          On the front lines of the energy crisis.
          Peak Oil Hawaii

          by Arclite on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 06:13:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        Arclite, CalGal47

        Biofuels are not the answer.  The answer is cleaning up our electricity grid (which is an easier problem) and switching over as many transportation miles as possible to electricity (PHEVs and EVs), which is becoming increasingly easy thanks to rapidly advancing battery tech.

        Especially railroad electrification; because trains run on tracks, they can be powered by line power from the grid, and don't need batteries.

        Renewable energy brings national security.

        by Calamity Jean on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 01:13:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Rail. Ah, rail. (0+ / 0-)

          Rail is great, if you discount the energy requirements of the (many) people who are required to keep it running.

          The thing is, if you discount those requirements, they all die, which tends to have an adverse effect on reliability.

          --
          Either get behind Obama 100% of GTFO of DailyKos.

          by DemCurious on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 04:06:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, because cars are so reliable (1+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            CalGal47

            and don't need people to keep them running.  

            What are you smoking?  Because I want to by a couple of ounces.

            Rail is at least four to seven times more efficient than trucks at moving cargo and people.  IT has better frictional coefficents where the wheels meet the transport surface, better aerodynamics, and better translation of energy to work through the use of electric motors instead of the poor 20% conversion rates of internal combustion engines.  

            Automobiles require a vast network of tens of thousands of stores and hundreds of thousands of workers nationwide to support them.  Just think of all the tool and die shops, parts suppliers, brake shops, Jiffy-Lubes, Checker's and Napa parts stores, and on and on.

            On the front lines of the energy crisis.
            Peak Oil Hawaii

            by Arclite on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 06:24:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Yup (0+ / 0-)

        The sun delivers 20,000 times the energy we use in a year to the earth's surface.  Capture even a tiny fraction of that and you've got more than enough.  And if battery tech doesn't work out?  Electrify rail and bring street cars back, and you'll get around just fine.  Folks did it for decades at the start of the twentieth century.

        On the front lines of the energy crisis.
        Peak Oil Hawaii

        by Arclite on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 06:05:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm pretty much sold on the plug-in hybrids (1+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        mattinjersey

        First 50-60 miles, drive electric only. Then after that, you "switch" to gasoline (if you can say that hybrids ever do a full switch really).

        For 95% of people, this would be enough, they would run on battery power 95% of the time.

        And you charge the cars when the grid is underutilized anyway.

        Sounds like a freaking plan to me.

        Also, start building some nuclear power plants NOW. We're going to need them ASAP. I tell you - I'd rather live next to a nuclear power plant, with all its shielding, than next to a coal plant... if I even have to.
        And, yes, keep exploring wave, wind and solar. Use as much of it as possible, and start decommissioning older coal plants as renewable sources come online.

View Story | 199 comments