be inferred from the content of a sentence, not its phrasing. Look: It's a completely backwards view of the political scene, sure--but it's also a really common one, the traditional one, even. I'm not here to insult you, I'm talking about the ideas in question--let's just keep it that way.

But I lived there and heard your second paragraph year after year.

That doesn't invalidate it unless, again, you believe that just because something has happened a dozen times one way means that it necessarily will again, even when the context continues to change. Conventional wisdom may be conventional, sure, but ain't always a type of smarts.

If you don't recognize the atmospheric difference between 1990-2000 NC and 2008 NC, I admit you may have lived there--past tense--but I have trouble believing you've been through the Piedmont or coast recently. The demographics and the economics have been turned on their head in large swaths of the state, and it's looking a lot like northern Virginia, which is solidly Democratic. Obama may have better odds in VA and NC than in FL, strangely. There is the chance he may win all of the above, sure, but looking at the national matchup composites it's pretty clear he doesn't have to win all the classic swing states to pull this off, if only because so many new states come into play. That's pretty reassuring.