Great recap of what is required reading... sometimes comfort in the statistics of the landscape really makes one worry less about the Noise of the campaign trail.

and the election in November portends to victory of historic proportions.  I am psyched in a way I have not been since Gore won in 2000 (that lasted until I returned from a run and learned they took Florida back from him....).  This is marveslous.  All Hail Poblano and Obama.  Thanks for a great diary.

good work!

Obama's campaign has effective employed Math, Electorial Genius and Predictive prowess to gain an entry as an insurgent during the Primary.

Next you'll be telling me that the obama campaign thinks evolution is good science, the earth's climate is changing in part due to human actions, the polar bear is endangered, the arctic ice mass is shrinking and we're descended from monkeys.

What a bunch of left-wing hippy-freaks!

but watching the progression of states turn blue was great :o)

they speak to you instead about the important benefits of voter suppression.

We need to nip those efforts in the bud this year.

Moves us past the pointless debates over West Virginia and Appalachia. The future lies in the 40/30/20 strategy. The Obama folks know it, and that is what will produce change in this country. It's time we focused on mobilizing African American and Latino voters and stopped wasting our time with racist crackers who have long ago made up their minds.

vote when so far this cycle (as poblano notes) we have seen  a little under 8% improvement in that demographic?

When you did your baseline analysis; did you use all of Kerry's voters will vote for Obama or did you consuider the 'silent racism' which would be refkllected in even some of Kerry's voters either voting for McCain or not voting at all.

If your analysis is correct; then Gov. Bill Richardson will be the likely choice for VP since his help in increasing the turnout of Hispanic voters would be integral to Obama's election.

I believe as well stated as your analysis is; it doesnt take into account the fluidity of the election campaign and the silent racism factor which doesnt show up in polling necessarily but will be an even greater factor in the general election than the Democratic primary.

Obama must increase voter registration to gretare numbers than 2004 and increase the turnout of the three groups you mention to be significant enough to outweigh the negative effects of the silent racism.

A very tall order indeed but achievable. I believe Obama will have to shore up his present support with traditional Democrats who could easily be persuaded to vote McCain. A constructive step would be to pick Sen James Webb for his VP as his experience, straight talking has already shown its effectiveness in beating the incumbent Senator George Allen. What other Democrat has ever ran for election with the symbolic wearing of his son's combat boots because his son was a soldier in Iraq. Obama will have to rely on himself for increasing registration and turnout of the three groups you mentioned.

Obama's chances will increase as the economy is perceived to be worsening.