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And it'd be nice to explain how voter confusion in KY and WV is supposed to benefit Clinton.
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by Adam B on Tue May 13, 2008 at 10:49:43 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
(i.e., a likely Obama supporter) would be more likely to be confused by something like this than a longtime voter, seen-it-all, older white woman.
Just saying.
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by scrape on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:08:47 AM PDT
by phrogge prince on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:13:09 AM PDT
... WVWV's main targets are younger, unmarried women, not older married women.
by Adam B on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:13:36 AM PDT
are African Americans.
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by Dem in the heart of Texas on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:17:26 AM PDT
But not in KY/WV.
by Adam B on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:22:24 AM PDT
young African-American females? Or that WVWV specifically excluded young African-American females from their mailings/calls in KY and WV?
What exactly?
by scrape on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:28:13 AM PDT
And at least according to their letter, only unmarried women were contacted in WV, I believe.
by Adam B on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:45:49 AM PDT
is so (that they managed to actually restrict their targeting... something they didn't seem to do in NC or VA). Haven't recent polls/cross-tabs indicated that young, unmarried females are more likely to support Obama than Clinton? So the effect of sowing confusion (intentionally or unintentionally) among this group would be the suppression of the Obama vote?
by scrape on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:04:41 PM PDT
Because you'd be confusion potential Clinton voters as well. I still believe that institutional incompetence/stubborness is more likely than a deliberate attempt to sow confusion.
by Adam B on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:07:50 PM PDT
I agree there's not enough evidence to conclude what WVWV's true motives might be. If their motives are not nefarious, the organization is incredibly incompetent, having done more damage than any other good-intentioned organization could live with.
If I were on their board, I would sack the exec and much of the senior staff, and start over. And probably need to rename it.
by scrape on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:43:45 PM PDT
of the board members' and leadership teams' personal businesses and consulting firms were paid (sometimes, quite handsomely) by WVWV for various services. Additionally, Page Gardner is the most senior staff and also the founder of WVWV, so it would be tough to sack her without dissolving the group entirely.
by msanthrope on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:50:56 PM PDT
should resign, and leave Ms. Gardner to twist slowly, slowly in the wind.
by scrape on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:58:15 PM PDT
Sending a mailing to registered voters in Kentucky telling them federal law requires an additional form for them to be allowed to vote?
And the most likely explanation is incompetence?
by catfood on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:27:58 PM PDT
Any large mailing list will have problems with it. If someone is registered to vote after the list is made up or if someone dies for example.
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by Brian82 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:40:25 PM PDT
There is no additional form to fill out. It's not required by federal law. They just made that up.
It's not incompetence.
by catfood on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:11:20 AM PDT
too hot to discuss rationally here
but w/ the work on AA voters also that was admitted by them in the last round on this
this is a distinct possibility I know you Adam need to help to us stay calm on this one but the biggest thing to calm me down would be tough questioning and convincing answers
with as many (at the least) total fuck-ups
as they have had, then they have brought rough scrutiny upon themselves in the heat of the moment
the timing was their choice, not mine
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by jhpdb on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:53:25 PM PDT
all the more effective if, as some suspect, WVWV is playing a different game than the one they profess to be playing.
Aren't younger, unmarried females registering as first-time voters more likely to be Obama supporters?
And while WVWV's main targets may be (or at least are professed to be) younger, unmarried females, they have hit minority communities (male and female) with their carpet-bombing of confusion.
by scrape on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:23:51 AM PDT
He has great empathy for younger, unmarried women.
John McCain hates children.
by discocarp on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:25:16 AM PDT
There is something just wrong about using an unknown voice actor's name in a robo-call that doesn't identify the group responsible - and just happening to use a conveniently AA-suggestive name in calls directed to AA voters.
What possible legitimate reason is there for this kind of activity?
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by cal in cali on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:29:38 AM PDT
In NC, the calls and mailings were going out to older black men and lots of other demographics.
Even if these people mean no harm (which I doubt), their tactics have been causing trouble for an extended period of time - long enough for them to alter their behavior, which they patently refuse to do. There are many organizations out there that have no difficulty registering voters without all this confusion. The behavior of WVWV is clearly deliberate, appears to be for a nefarious purpose, and is therefore indefensible.
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by dzog on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:30:09 AM PDT
It would be the votes of younger women, also possibly first time voters. And of course african americans are his demographic. Both of whom seem to be the targets for this group.
They claim to also send their mailer's to Latinos but there have been no mentions of complaints by Latino groups. That is another thing that makes their mailing decisions so suspect.
by OwlMonkey on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:42:16 AM PDT
Young people have tended to break for Obama, so your point isn't real logical.
Caveat: I don't necessarily think that this is a Clinton "dirty trick." I'm just pointing out that if someone is making a case that WVWV's purpose is to confuse and therefore suppress voters that trend toward being Obama supporters, that that group includes more than just black voters.
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by ohiolibrarian on Tue May 13, 2008 at 12:44:53 PM PDT
That by itself tells you all you need to know about their intentions.
by Bri on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:19:58 AM PDT
They do it in WV and KY where Clinton is expected to win huge so any confusion doesn't really hurt her plus at this point it has no effect on the nomination race. That way they get to make exactly the argument you just did- the difference is that in the previous races their interferences could have mattered.
Consider what would have happened to them if they hadn't done it WV & KY. Would there then be any doubt as to what their motives were?
by keepingitstraight on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:53:07 AM PDT
.... remember, the WV/KY calls/mailings were simultaneous with NC -- and about twenty more states, WVWV says.
by Adam B on Tue May 13, 2008 at 11:57:27 AM PDT
Okay, Adam, you explain what the hell is happening. The simplest explanation that takes into account all the known facts is that WVWV is attempting to create confusion among legitimately registered voters. Got a simpler explanation that still makes sense?
by catfood on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:21:00 PM PDT
Two: (a) they were indifferent to the timing of registration deadlines, or (b) they actively sought efforts during these windows out of an honest, but mistaken belief that this was a fertile period to harvest new voters and that any resulting confusion would be minimal.
See my last story on this; I laid it all out.
by Adam B on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:31:38 PM PDT
All of your explanations give them maximum benefit of the doubt, which is your prerogative. But I don't think it's backed up by the evidence.
Let's start with some basics:
First, I think all of the evidence points to the fact that they were consciously targeting a specific primary window: before the primary elections, but too late to actually register. All of their correspondence shows that they were aware of the "unfortunate coincidence" of their timing. They kept doing it even after people complained. And heck, these are seasoned pros who know the primary calendar. It was a deliberate choice of strategy.
So second, why would they do this? You say because they thought it was "a fertile period to harvest new voters." This is a reasonable explanation for them to give, and one their defenders repeat frequently. Makes sense: Interest in elections is high, good time to send out registration forms.
But then the problems with the argument start becoming clear:
(1) Wouldn't interest be pretty high 2 weeks earlier, when they could actually register for the primaries? Especially this year? Why intentionally (remember their letters to election officials) miss the deadline?
(2) If just registering voters was really the goal, why in North Carolina were they the only group that didn't pursue one-stop registration and voting?
(3) Does this at all address the question of their tactics, like anonymous robo-calls? Why different calls to different demographics, with differing levels of clarity?
(4) What's the cost/benefit analysis? Was the "bump" in registrations worth the chaos and confusion that resulted? They claim the impact has been "minimal," and you repeat that explanation without question. But the impact clearly hasn't been "minimal." The reported complaints alone are in the hundreds, if not thousands, nation-wide. And that's just who has REPORTED confusion.
(5) Those drawbacks to their strategy are especially relevant given that the registration numbers are likely highly inflated, because they are getting forms turned in from voters who are already registered (half of the sample from one Kentucky official we talked to).
I could go on, but I hope you see the point. All of this could have been predicted. I don't see how any of these could have been an "honest" "mistake."
I'll leave it to others to divine their motivations. But these and other details illustrate there's more at work than you or WVWV are letting on.
Maybe it's not nefarious. But it goes beyond the explanations you and WVWV are giving.
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by ProgressiveSouth on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:35:50 PM PDT
It's not like they are mailing every address, or even every Democrat. They don't even seem to be working toward their supposed mission of registering women.
by MJ via Chicago on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:30:58 PM PDT
wide narrow
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