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Normally, I would stay around to answer questions, but it is 3 a.m. here on the West Coast and I think my wife would like me to go to bed -- as promised a couple of hours ago. I want to post it now so that it might have a chance of affecting how people discuss the election as dawn breaks, even though I won't be taking part in discussion until late morning my time. If you enjoy this enough to want people to see it, you know what to do. Not that I'm pushing, not that this took much effort or anything ... ;7)
John McCain's Court will overturn Roe; don't kid yourself.
by Seneca Doane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:05:29 AM PDT
but I'm happy to rec this anyway. Outstanding work, SD (not Super Delegate).
Coming on 1/20/09: the finest inaugural address since 1961, (or possibly even 1861). Set your Tivos now.
by Rick in Oz on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:22:21 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
a place where Clinton was supposed to do well, there is 20% missing. Did Edwards actually beat Obama?
It is hard to compare West Va with states that voted long ago. That is like looking at Iowa and comparing it to West Virginia. People would vote differently in early states if their primaries were now.
If we lose in 2008, the Supreme Court is simply lost, for practical purposes, for all of our lifetimes.
by alliedoc on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:42:26 AM PDT
the Klan against the invader?
by Barry Leonardini on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:30:05 AM PDT
And I'm not being snarky. They are some of the most socially conservative people in the country yet identify themselves as Democrat. WV is unique in that regard.
I'm a whole lot less afraid than I have been, but I stay vigilant. In HIllary's little meeting today with supporters, she's going to point to Wright as having damaged Obama for the GE. Of course, that wasn't true in NC or IN, and won't be true in OR, but we won't let facts get in our way.
Hillary has gone unassailed by the right throughout this process. They still desperately want Hillary to be the nominee. She may make as many promises as she likes that there's nothing new to vet; but this is from the woman who believed Bill for a year that there was nothing to the Monica story.
Bill's donors to the library and the foundation, how he has intervened with foreign governments on behalf of trade deals, uranium mines, and God knows what else -- these are issues yet to be vetted. To think that the right won't have a list a mile long of conflicts of interest, shady deals that perhaps already have influenced Sen. Clinton and certainly could influenece Pres. (God forbid) Hillary -- this is unexplored territory.
The right will use Wright at every possible opportunity. We have guns to load against McCain -- don't forget that. But we don't know what guns there are against Hillary and Bill.
The Clintons have lurched from immediate goal to immediate goal throughout their career, covering up and dealing with ginned up attacks and unfortunately, dealing with the consequences of their own reckless acts. They don't plan far enough ahead ever to blunt these attacks until they happen.
So I hope someone is making this case to the supers, while Hillary makes the case that the "black guy" is unfit to be president because WV doesn't like him.
by 57andFemale on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:50:32 AM PDT
that, according to demographics, West Virginia was the state that was least like the rest of the country.
I'm pretty sure Illinois was near the top.
Sorry I can't find any links.
(-7.00, -5.18) Hopelessly pedantic since 1963.
by admiralh on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:15:49 AM PDT
do a diary. I hope I see it. That is really really interesting.
I am from Illinois and I have always jokingly called myself totally average, insinuating that a person always thinks that anyone smarter than herself is "brilliant", anyone less smart is "an idiot", heavier is "obese", etc.
by alliedoc on Thu May 15, 2008 at 03:22:17 AM PDT
It was on NPR about a year ago.
by admiralh on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:52:55 PM PDT
I am surprised at Illinois. My impression is that there are very few Hispanics in Illinois. I would have thought it should be higher. Interesting also that Iowa and New Hampshire are both very low. These are terrible choices for the first primaries. From the list, I would pick Georgia or North Carolina and Michigan.
As for your comment about West Virginia, so true.
by alliedoc on Fri May 16, 2008 at 06:55:03 PM PDT
I agree overall, but I disagree if you're saying that you can't make meaningful comparisons across bordering counties. That may be a way to unlock some of the mysteries of the state.
by Seneca Doane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:30:32 AM PDT
that the state was always going to be tough for Obama. Wait and see what happens after OR next week.
by brueso on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:49:56 AM PDT
Hillary and Bill Clinton's tax returns from 2000-2006 reveal that he made at least $8 million from foreign sources and another $15 million from Yucaipa, which is owned by supermarket magnate and "Friend of Bill" Ron Burkle. It's been reported that Yucaipa manages the financial portfolio of Dubai's ruler - Emir Mohammad bin Rashed al-Maktoum.
So how much of Bill's earnings came from Burkle really come from the Emir's petrodollars?
And what does Bill bring to Yucaipa? A rolodex of contacts made while he was president, and nothing else. By the way, this is the same Emir who aggressively boycotts Israel and has been cited for human rights violations by the State Department
by docb on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:35:22 AM PDT
Yes, people may well have voted differently now. That difference is potentially meaningful. It's especially interesting to me how much the "support for Hillary" we saw in Ohio and Pennsylvania may not really be support for Hillary at all, but people who were casting protest votes -- something that doesn't suggest she would have too firm a grip on these voters compared to McCain.
by Seneca Doane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:28:44 AM PDT
I need to take another shower this morning and do some road work.
Thanks for a very interesting overview from a fresh perspective, SD.
"Well, yeah, the Constitution is worth it if you can succeed." -Nancy Pelosi, 6/29/07.
by nailbender on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:46:12 AM PDT
election data? ;o)
I really enjoy your (and poblano's) deeeeeeep number crunching on this. CorpMedia can't be bothered by anything so trivial as analyzing the results. Feh.
I haven't seen, any idea of the delegate split?
Bottled hot water for dehydrated babies? WTF?!
by JVolvo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:08:29 AM PDT
This early in the morning
(Or last night so late last night)
Tipped and rec'd.
by jzso on Wed May 14, 2008 at 04:44:11 AM PDT
Would resources help? Would a more vigorous campaign help?
I think it is important now that he not look like he "doesn't care" about these people. That's the one negative spin happening last night and this morning.
I know the argument: if he shows up and still tanks, it looks bad. That's what happened to Hillary in WI. But if indeed we're talking about the GE and he is working on his image with working class voters, then I think he has to pay some attention to KY.
by 57andFemale on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:40:58 AM PDT
right now in KY. But Obama has only come to Louisville. He should hit Lexington, Bowling Green, Ashland, and Paducah.
John McCain's Something for Everyone Plan: Military draft for youth, SS benefit cuts for elderly, Middle Class destruction, stock market plunge for wealthy.
by IhateBush on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:13:16 AM PDT
very rural. but the organizer said there is something about very rural votes being weighted more which I didn't quite follow.
by Leslie in KY on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:16:31 AM PDT
level for delegates. The rural districts are getting a slightly bigger share of delegates assigned. But given the Obama edge in delegates, it's not that big anymore.
But yes, Obama needs 30% (of the Obama/Clinton vote, Edwards and Uncommitted are thrown out unless they get 15%) in Districts 1, 2, and 4 to get 2 delegates out of them. Obama needs 15% in KY-5 to get even 1 delegate, and it will be tough to do. In similar counties in WV, Obama got 8-12%.
by IhateBush on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:29:15 AM PDT
The office told me that where they most need it is in L'ville...40% of the Dem vote is in that area. I volunteered to go to the rural areas, thinking that's where it's most needed. But apparently not. As organized as they are, I believe they know where out of state volunteers can best be used.
"Evil is a lack of empathy, a total incapacity to feel with their fellow man." - Capt. Gilbert,Psychiatrist, at the end of Nuremberg trials.
by 417els on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:42:41 AM PDT
they are working for a very big Obama turnout in Louisville. good luck!
by Leslie in KY on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:14:35 PM PDT
Next Tuesday, May 20th could be a very, very big day. Oregon should be a big win, and if Kentucky can come in surprisingly close, it'd be a repeat of last week, and maybe we'd be able to shut her down (finally!) He'll have a majority of the elected delegates then, which automatically will give him the SDs who are waiting for that to happen, and enough SDs could break free then to put him over the finish line, or at least tantalizingly close.
"We the People of the United States..." -U.S.Constitution
by elwior on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:06:09 AM PDT
Wednesday morning now. Some spin about him not caring, but it doesn't hide the fact that Obama is the de facto nominee and going into the general election mode.
There would be backlash if he completely folded up the primary effort, but the key point is that he is seen as continuing to fight the election battle.
He gained more delegates and press covereage working the Congressional floor for Super Delegates than he would have picked up wasting more time in the back waters of West Virginia, that's for sure.
As he continues to pick up Super Delegates and get closer to the final number, Hillary's financial situation worsening, she's only hanging in to get more funds to try to pay down some of that massive debt of hers.
Washington DC
by cks175 on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:18:13 AM PDT
by Leslie in KY on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:17:27 AM PDT
I'm trying to cultivate that gorgeous Bluegrass accent before I call!
by Seneca Doane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:35:04 AM PDT
Although Oregon has vote-by-mail, so perhaps Obama can encourage as many people in Oregon as possible to vote early, allowing him to pull some resources out for Kentucky now?
-5.63, -8.10 | Impeach, Convict, Remove & Bar from Office, Arrest, Indict, Convict, Imprison!
by neroden on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:05:55 AM PDT
vote by tomorrow (Thursday) if possible. He also gives clear direction as to how to find your local ballot box, etc. Kind of nice to hear his voice on my phone in my kitchen....
by Erica Jan on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:21:20 AM PDT
Jesus ain't comin', go ahead and put the Nukes back now.
by RisingTide on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:25:51 AM PDT
He should campaign, sure, especially in cities and college towns, but he should prepare for a similar loss (probably not quite as bad, maybe 35 points) and hope that Oregon offsets it. These are two of his three worst states; he can't change that. But he can change the story line, and he has been doing so. Don't worry -- I think this is a candidate and a campaign that knows what they're doing!
by Seneca Doane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:34:19 AM PDT
but has some regular season games left. You still compete, but you don't go wearing out the players you're going to need for the playoffs. O is a longtime sports fan- he knows this.
by brueso on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:52:43 AM PDT
a Pro weighing in with the right questions!!
Thanks.
Subtlety is the art of saying what you think and getting out of the way before it is understood.
by Granny Doc on Wed May 14, 2008 at 05:56:32 AM PDT
Click to enlarge.
I'll just stick this map in your diary instead of taking up room with a new diary on the diary list.
The demographics gave a pretty good preview of what WV would look like. You can see maps for some demographics like education, which shows you where the universities are, in this old diary.
Aside from the vote for Edwards, another factor that differs from neighboring states is the relatively low turnout.
by dreaminonempty on Wed May 14, 2008 at 06:27:36 AM PDT
This will be gone before too long and I'm sure your diary will create interest!
by Seneca Doane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:36:24 AM PDT
I think your diary is the WV diary of the day.
The 'regulars' who read my diaries will see an update of the primary maps next week after KY and OR have their say.
by dreaminonempty on Wed May 14, 2008 at 09:24:47 AM PDT
and you get a big grin from me along with the tip and the rec. The grin is for using the word "snarfed" in an analysis. ;)
I think you may be on to something, in regards to the Edwards protest vote.
Lousy Bowlers for Obama
by paintitblue on Wed May 14, 2008 at 07:56:14 AM PDT
for staying up until the sun was a-shining in the east. And it was light in the midwest.
by irativesfo on Wed May 14, 2008 at 08:33:33 AM PDT
I was checking up on Marshall, because the upper list didn't give the Clinton and Obama numbers. Using CNN's website, it says C 64, O 28. When I got down to your lower (analysis) list, I saw C 59, O 26. Then I noticed you were using the New York Times results, which were indeed what you've listed.
We have two news web sites, both claiming to have 100% results from the same county, yet they're wildly different. And, doing a spot check, the first ten counties you list (including Marshall) give significantly different percentages for all ten on NYT and CNN. What's up with that?
The WV SoS website has these results for Marshall County: Clinton, 4156; Obama, 1815; Edwards, 554. That's a total of 6525 votes. Percentages, calculated by me: Clinton, 63.7%, Obama, 27.8%; Edwards, 8.5%.
New York Times: Clinton, 59%; Obama, 26%; total votes, 7079.
CNN: Clinton, 4156, 64%; Obama, 1815, 28%.
I don't know what the New York Times is using for numbers, but CNN seems to agree with the West Virginia Secretary of State.
© sardonyx; all rights reserved
by sardonyx on Wed May 14, 2008 at 10:16:38 AM PDT
I had noticed and fixed the omission of Marshall numbers before seeing this. I admit that I am using the NYT numbers and if they're garbage, then garbage comes out. I'm seriously shocked if they're not trustworthy. Rechecking the numbers on CNN for all five states -- which is what I'd have to do to be satisfied given the concern you raise -- is just more volunteer work than I'm prepared to do. Still, thanks for the warning.
by Seneca Doane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:22:55 AM PDT
It looks like to get their totals, NYT started with the same Clinton and Obama numbers as CNN, but NYT added the Edwards total twice. Must be a coding error. The net result is to lower the Clinton and Obama percentages by a like proportion in all counties. It does explain why the NYT percentages were low.
I've checked the other panhandle counties: Hancock, Brooke, and Ohio, and it's consistent.
The NYT gives Hancock as 7864. SoS/CNN has Clinton, 4744; Obama, 1832; Edwards (SoS only), 644. That gives SoS a total of 7220; add another 644 and you get 7864.
Brooke: NYT total, 6295. SoS/CNN has Clinton, 3866; Obama, 1577; Edwards (SoS only), 426. SoS total, 5869; add another 426 and you get 6295.
Ohio County's a bit different, because the SoS totals are a bit higher than CNN: an extra 74 for Clinton, 46 for Obama, and (my extrapolation) 8 for Edwards. I think, again, CNN and NYT were working from the same numbers; CNN has Clinton, 5061; Obama, 3075; and I'm guessing the SoS's Edwards, 548, was actually 540 in the CNN/NYT data. If I'm right, CNN's total would have been 8676, and NYT, with another 540, matches the actual NYT total of 9216. (The SoS actual total is 8804, from 5135+3121+548.)
by sardonyx on Wed May 14, 2008 at 11:58:58 AM PDT
about the "newspaper of record" and link to this interchange in the diary text.
And then I'm going to go look at CNN. Thanks.
by Seneca Doane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 12:43:13 PM PDT
That took about an hour to fix. I will send the NYT a Sternly Worded Letter.
by Seneca Doane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 01:57:08 PM PDT
I hated to mention it, given all the work you'd done...but facts is facts!
by sardonyx on Wed May 14, 2008 at 02:50:46 PM PDT
by anyone for their own commentary, I would prefer not to have misled them. (Unlike, apparently, the people who do the NY Times election tables....)
by Seneca Doane on Wed May 14, 2008 at 03:13:42 PM PDT
wide narrow
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