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  •  No (7+ / 0-)

    I guess I'm going to have to be one of the few who disagrees with the premise of this diary. And I can tell you first hand that every senior member of the Obama campaign will verify this.

    Obama had nothing- nothing- to do with the timing of Edwards' endorsement. Nothing. And for everyone to bow down in praise of the genius of his timing in rolling out Edwards is nothing short of silly.

    I'm a fully on board Obama supporter and have been since I had the chance to meet him and hear him speak at a house party in 2003. But even I can't allow this diary to stand.

    The idea that somehow Obama's timing with the Edwards endorsement was perfect is 100% silliness.  Edwards' timing was based on one thing and one thing only- John Edwards being as absolutely safe as possible.  This wasn't brilliance on Obama's part, this was safety first on Edwards' part.

    Barack Obama and every single adivsor on his campaign wanted this public endorsement long, long ago and would have leapt to take it.

    There were plenty, plenty of other times where Obama was within a bairsbreadth of ending this thing for good- just prior to Texas, Indiana, Super Tuesday where an Edwards endorsement and some hard campaigning could have helped end this thing long ago, would have spared the party these bitter divisions, and would have put Obama in a far greater position of strength.

    But that didn't happen.  Instead, Edwards waited, and waited, and waited... He was perfectly content to allow folks like Terry McAuliffe to repeatedly leak hints that Edwards was about to endorse Hillary despite the fact that this was total fiction.  He waited at times when Obama needed him most in Texas, Indiana, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio. He waited and waited and waited.

    And to insinuate that Obama wouldn't have MUCH preferred Edwards support back at any of those junctures is just purely naive.

    I'm sorry, but this diary is just unfounded.  Edwards' timing had nothing to do with Obama.  Nothing.  Other than maybe the latitude of a couple days. This was all Edwards.  And it was all Edwards playing it as safe as absolutely possible.  I'm a full-on Obama supporter, but this diary is giving credit where credit isn't due.

    •  That's not what Chuck Todd (5+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Magenta, mattman, Cyber Kat, wargolem, MooseHB

      reported this morning. More of the opposite and how this demonstrates that Obama is now in complete control of the party.

      You usually get what you paid for.

      by IowaMike on Thu May 15, 2008 at 05:56:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  sure, but given that they had to (7+ / 0-)

      work with that delay, there is absolutely no doubt that the particular moment that was eventually chosen for edwards's endorsement, which he's been telegraphing for a week, was carefully designed to annul the effect of the WV loss.

      sounds pretty smart to me.

      if gore endorses after kentucky, will you say that it has nothing to do with kentucky simply because he could've endorsed earlier?

      Reader, suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself... Mark Twain

      by jedley on Thu May 15, 2008 at 05:59:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well (11+ / 0-)

      we don't actually know either way, do we?

      My assumption is that many of the supers currently endorsing Obama in daily drips have been in contact with the campaign, and even if Obama doesn't completely control the timing of their endorsements, he's able to inflect it.  Edwards was a big enough fish that he could name his own timing, but a key part of endorsements for most folks is the giving and receiving of favors.  Jimmy Carter is probably one of the few supers who is totally immune to this sort of thing.  For Al Gore, his "favor" might be an assurance that environmental concerns will be high priorities.  

      Anyway, if Edwards told Obama that he intended to endorse him, he's offering a favor, and he wants to make it as big a favor as possible.  He makes it so by allowing Obama to suggest his preferred timing for the endorsement.  If it suits Edwards, then fine.  Obama says that endorsement would be more powerful after WV than before, which makes sense to Edwards: Clinton's going to lap Obama in WV, and Edwards doesn't want his reputation as the candidate of the "other America" tarnished.  So instead, he gets to join Obama in Michigan, the heartland of American unions, and change the week's political narrative.

      •  nicely put (5+ / 0-)

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        mattman, peacemom, JVolvo, sandav, sherijr

        and you never even attended a house party with Obama!

        snark

        sorry, but the ridiculing tone ("nothing short of silly") and Bush41-style rhetoric ("Even I can't allow this diary to stand") was just too much for me

        Reader, suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself... Mark Twain

        by jedley on Thu May 15, 2008 at 06:13:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Equal an Opposite Reaction (1+ / 0-)

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          Heart of the Rockies

          My comment mirrors (see: mocks) the tone of absolute 100% certainty of the diary which treats Obama like he is a clairvoyant Messiah when in fact he's just a really good Presidential candidate.

          My tone mirrors the diarist's identically.

    •  Yo, Nocore! C'mere (4+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      JVolvo, jedley, evdebs, sherijr

      Quick, gimme the winning lotery numbers for tommorrow and don't tell anyone else, huh? Cuz yer OBVIOUSLY a gifted psychic, right?  Knowing what's in John Edwards mind, and all.

      You and you,alone, know that.  Damn, yer good.  Let's have those numbers, dude.

      You can't always tell the truth because you don't always know the truth - but you can ALWAYS be honest.

      by mattman on Thu May 15, 2008 at 06:31:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ... (0+ / 0-)

        Matt,

        It is the diary that claims to be psychic.  I only mirrored it.

      •  P.S. (0+ / 0-)

        John Edwards says that I'm correct, and that you, Matt, are wrong.  He also says that the rest of you who attempted to condescend were wrong as well.

        Unless you are prepared to call John Edwards a bald-faced liar, I will await a group apology.

        "That's not true," he said. "I know it's not true because I am the one who made the decision about when to do this. I believe this was the right time to do it. I made a decision that the public should know at this point my view."

        Something like,"Sorry, Nocore, you were right," will suffice.

    •  Inside info? (6+ / 0-)

      What's your basis for the following three points?

      And I can tell you first hand that every senior member of the Obama campaign will verify this.

      Edwards' timing was based on one thing and one thing only- John Edwards being as absolutely safe as possible.  This wasn't brilliance on Obama's part, this was safety first on Edwards' part.

      Barack Obama and every single adivsor on his campaign wanted this public endorsement long, long ago and would have leapt to take it.

      The first and third points suggest you have some position with or intimate connection to Obama's HQ.  The second statement sounds like conjecture based on observation.  So I'm curious:  What's your source for this information?

      •  ... (0+ / 0-)

        Focus.  The diary is written as if it is ironclad inside information.

        I wrote an equal and opposite response to highlight its absurdity.  Because it is... absurd.  Pay attention.

        •  listen to this guy! (1+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          mattman

          sheesh

          Reader, suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself... Mark Twain

          by jedley on Thu May 15, 2008 at 06:50:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  You have a gift (1+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          Firecrawler09

          ... for condescension.  

          I think you're backpedaling.  Otherwise, you'd admit your own fault in presenting snark as truth without any clarifying information.

          Either that, or you thought you could present specious information as truth and no one would call you on it.

          Either way, your unpleasantness is unjustified.

          •  When We Pass Pleasantness Laws, I'm Off to Canada (0+ / 0-)

            In order to buy the argument of the diary, you would have to believe each of the following:

            1. Obama wasn’t really giving it his all to win Texas.  He was only going at partial effort because he was content to toy with his opponent a little longer.  He could have taken or given the win.  No big deal either way.  He wouldn’t have wanted the help.
            1. Obama wasn’t really giving it his all to win Ohio.  He was only going at partial effort because he was content to toy with his opponent a little longer.  He could have taken or given the win.  No big deal either way.  He wouldn’t have wanted the help.
            1. Obama wasn’t really giving it his all to win Indiana.  He was only going at partial effort because he was content to toy with his opponent a little longer.  He could have taken or given the win.  No big deal either way.  He wouldn’t have wanted the help.
            1. Obama wasn’t really giving it his all to win on Super Tuesday.  He was only going at partial effort because he was content to toy with his opponent a little longer.  He could have taken or given the win.  No big deal either way.  He wouldn’t have wanted the help.
            1. Obama wasn’t really giving it his all to win Pennsylvania.  He was only going at partial effort because he was content to toy with his opponent a little longer.  He could have taken or given the win.  No big deal either way.  He wouldn’t have wanted the help.
            1. Obama wasn’t really giving it his all during the last Reverand Wright flare-up.  He was only going at partial effort because he was content to toy with his opponent a little longer.  He could have taken or given the media firestorm.  Who cares that he dropped 10 points in two weeks?  No big deal.  He wouldn’t have wanted the help.
            1. That all along John Edwards has been lying to Hillary Clinton.  His meeting with her in North Carolina was just a giant ruse designed to mess with her.  And all of his conversations with her since have just been lies as well to string her along and fool her into thinking she might win his endorsement.  Because that’s just how John Edwards is; he’s a petty chronic liar.
            1. Barack Obama and David Axelrod were in on the lies with Edwards all along as part of a secret conspiracy.  Their plan was to hold off springing the endorsement because all along they were the only three people in America who knew exactly how this primary was going to break and never had a doubt about his victory.  So why give 100%?  It was all some grand clairvoyent conspiracy.  Because that’s just how Obama is; he’s a petty chronic liar as well.

            If you actually believe each of these eight things, then okay; the diary stands.  If you don’t believe all eight statements, then we are giving my candidate waaaaaaaaay too much credit here.  You might be willing to call John Edwards and Barack Obama conspiratorial liars who've been toying around like the Harlem Globetrotters, but I’m not.  Because that’s what this diary unwittingly and necessarily implies.

    •  Yeah, (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Roadbed Guy

      I have to say, this is the kind of diary that Clinton supporters make fun of Daily Kos for: "Obama is AWESOME and smarter than ALL OF US!!!!! Trust in him 4ever!" All on the basis of a silly and unsupported assumption (that Obama planned the timing of the Edwards endorsement). Now, I don't particularly mind being made fun of in general, but since we need to convince these Clinton supporters that we support Obama for rational reasons and not hysterical ones, it would be cool if we wouldn't make ourselves such an easy target of ridicule by recommending diaries like this one.

      (By the way, one can play this game with any candidate—point out some monumental event that happened to have good timing and declare it to be an example of the candidate's enduring brilliance.)

      •  I think it's a lot more than one assumption (0+ / 0-)

        Most of us here at DKos are pretty smart people; after all, it's a natural fit.  I will gladly include myself in there.  Not bragging, but I qualify for Mensa (haven't sent in the paperwork yet; smart & lazy is a terrible way to go through life).  Put those facts together, there's certainly going to be a fair amount of political prognostication on the site.  Maybe a little one-upsmanship, just as a distraction from the drudgery of the primary season that won't end.

        What I have learned, on doing this since last fall (being an Iowa Precinct captain really jumpstarts the process), is that every time I think I have it figured out, the Obama campaign does the one thing that I didn't think of, that looks one more move ahead than I did, one more hand ahead in the cards.  Chess and poker are the best analogies, and both for the same reason.  Those two contests involve planning ahead more than any other competitive endeavor.  It's also good to recall that Obama is an experienced poker player (could you imagine the leader of the free world making the final table at the World Series of Poker?).

        In either chess or poker, it's about thinking of your next move, anticipating the opponent's counter, and then planning anew based on the anticipated reaction, in a recursive loop that can quickly begin to boggle even the most bright player, if there is a lack of focus.  (This is also true in the game of "which goblet holds the poisoned wine?" but we know Wesley beats Vizzini by having built up a resistance to an irresistable poison, iocaine; sounds like Kirk in the Kobayashi Maru--but I'm losing focus.)  But the Obama campaign has several good examples of keeping that focus.

        First, the leaked delegate spreadsheet.  It has been remarkably accurate, and missing as much from Operation Chaos effect as anything.

        Know what, let's stop there, not hijack an already full thread, and start a new diary with more examples.  I'll build it off this comment.

        Low-Information: it's the new Stupid
        -7.12/-5.95

        by MooseHB on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:20:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree that Obama is very smart, (0+ / 0-)

          and that he'll make a great President for that reason (among many others), and you really didn't have to tell me about how high your IQ is to prove it to me. (I'll forgive you for it since your taste in movies is, to say the least, top-notch. ;-)  )

          This diary struck me as a little over the top, though. And no, this diary is not a lot more than one assumption. The whole diary is about the timing of the Edwards endorsement. There is plenty of solid evidence that Obama is, in fact, brilliant, but this is not an example of that.

          For me, this diary can be best summed up by the blockquote in the middle marked "KEY INSIGHT", complete with its amusing revision:

          KEY INSIGHT: No one here thought of this
          (edit: it turns out some of you did)

    •  Nocore, do you have hard evidence of this? (0+ / 0-)

      There were plenty, plenty of other times where Obama was within a bairsbreadth of ending this thing for good- just prior to Texas, Indiana, Super Tuesday where an Edwards endorsement and some hard campaigning could have helped end this thing long ago...

      or this?

      Edwards waited, and waited, and waited... He was perfectly content to allow folks like Terry McAuliffe to repeatedly leak hints that Edwards was about to endorse Hillary  

      Your saying that Edwards contrived this waiting thing out of safety concerns. Can you point me to an article, or a web site, or a video clip that will colaborate what you are claiming? Please link to your sources, or please list them. If there are no facts to back this, then it is just your opinion.

      This union may never be perfect, but generation after generation has shown that it can always be perfected.

      by Batbird on Thu May 15, 2008 at 07:58:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I have to disagree a bit, based on my 'analysis' (0+ / 0-)

      of BHO's campaign, and the very careful way they have manuevered their candidate into the nomination against the most formidable political machine around.

      The Obama campaign has been one step ahead of everybody else on every level; Their strategy of campaigning hard in so-called 'red states' which Clinton and her Dem Machine ignored is the most obvious.*

      Every step of the way since before Iowa, it seems as though the Obama campaign has expertly played not only the media coverage and narrative, but also the way they have slowly taken HRC down.

      It was necessary to do it this way for the simple reason that HRC's supporters would've screamed bloody murder if Obama had "wrapped it all up" earlier; The Clintonoids would've accused BHO of "manipulation behind the scenes" and "stealing" the nomination. This accusation would've stuck, too.

      It was absolutely necessary from the Obama campaign's perspective that HRC lose fair and square, and that every Democrat should get a chance to vote in the primaies. The Obama campaign wanted a situation in which Clinton lost without any doubts whatsoever. She would be given every oppurtunity to "come back"; assuming her comeback failed, and it became certain that BHO would win, only then could the supers start to shift to him en masse. Any earlier and HRC's supporters would've fraked out bigtime.

      If the pro-Obama supers and bigwigs like Edwards had endorsed Obama sooner, or if Obama had called for her to drop out earlier, or if Clinton herself dropped out, many of her supporters would've become so bitterly angry they would never, ever support Obama in November. Clinton had to lose as slowly and as gently as possible and she had to lose it herself. The supers could not "decide" it for Obama prematurely, just like they could not overturn the will of the voters and decide on HRC.

      Thus the Obama campaign's masterful prudence and careful handling of HRC's defeat is one for the Poli-Sci books.

      The other well-played issue was Jeremiah Wright; The Obama campaign knew this was gonna come out sooner or later, and they are very lucky or they were very smart to 'arrange the release' of the Wright Tapes to the media during a long spell between primaries when the vast majority of Americans were not paying much attention.
      The reason why Wright didn't cause too much damage in the polls in IN and PA was because Wright was not on the network news all the time like he was on the cable news channels; Few people actually watch the pundits except Kossacks and political junkies - about 3% of the US population. Most folks didn't even know about Wright in any great detail, and to them it seemed like a silly story, a typical media-frenzy over nothing.
      Now Americans are innoculated against the Wright bullshit, and the issue is dead. The timing of the Wright 'nontroversy' was very favorable to Obama. I think 'bitter' was probably more harmful to him than Wright.

      *BTW, Obama does NOT have a "white, blue collar" problem; he has (had) a problem with Appalachian whites: PA, OH and IN (and KY) all have large areas which are part of the Appalachian mountains; those are the counties he got beat badly. Working class whites everywhere else (like in the midwest) did just fine for Obama. The main reason HRC did well in those areas was because she had those places targeted a long time ago as the 'all-important' swing states which her campaign thought they needed to win the general. Obama's path to the WH doesnt necessarily need those Appalachian whites. He has numerous other possible ways to beat McCain.

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