The worst kept secret about the Republican Party is that there really isn't one.  They were in the wilderness for the better part of forty years until 1994... and then the thing that brought them back was a secret formula not unlike Coke's own "7x."

They put together a loose coalition of social conservatives who don't care about economics, economic ultra-conservatives who don't care about society, and libertarians who don't care about anything but being left alone.  The glue they used to bring them together was pandering.  All across the country, Republicans promised the people in their district exactly what the majority group that area wanted.  Republicans in Upstate New York were told of a future without income taxes.  Republicans in Texas were told of a future without an FBI.  Republicans in Georgia were told of a a future that included the Department of Morality, Heterosexuality, And Gambling that would name Bill Bennet Czar for life.

So what happened?  Obviously these promises were mutually exclusive.  There isn't anything they could do to actually GRANT the wishes of any group without pissing off one or both of the other two.

Well first off, they had to decide what they were ACTUALLY going to do.  The people who ran the Republican party were then (and continue to be) essentially corporatists.  They don't give two shits about abortion, or gay marriage, or Waco.  What's good for Wall Street is good for Main Street.  Period.  So every ACTUAL thing they sought to enact was designed to make the richest shareholders in the world richer.

The problem is this:  Even though their coalition was made up of broad mostly single-issue interest groups, those people weren't stupid.  They were bound to figure out sooner or later that they weren't actually GETTING anything they were being promised.

Bill Clinton came to the rescue here.  And I don't mean that as a criticism.  He just happened to be President for the first six years of "The Revolution."  So all they did was keep stuffing hundred dollar bills into the pockets of millionaires, and then every few months send some ridiculous constitutional amendment or tax policy to the floor that they knew the Democrats in the Senate would either kill or Clinton would veto.  Usually there would be three or four of these every second September so they'd have something to go back home and use as an excuse.  "You saw me fighting for all the things I promised you, but Bill Clinton, Ted Kennedy, and Bill Clinton's penis wouldn't let me."

So 2000 rolls around and Bush wins, largely on the same, "I promise everything to everyone" bullshit that worked in congress.   But now there's a problem.  The Republicans control the executive branch.  They don't have Bill Clinton's penis to put in television commercials anymore.

And what happens?

They start tanking.  Bad.  By August or so of HIS FIRST YEAR, George W. Bush was headed due south to a below 50 approval rating and three years of irrelevance.

I don't have to tell you what happened a month later that changed all that.  And I don't have to tell you what's happened since.

But the reality is this:  That coalition is not going to recover.  Period.  They're not going to come together to give the GOP back congress, and they're not going to come back together to elect John McCain.

The GOP isn't dead, but they've gone indoors.  And they aren't coming out again until they've got some clothes on and figured out what they're actually about.  My guess is that ultimately it will be fiscal conservatism, which will put them back in the same position they were in for most of the 20th century.  It's not going to return them to dominance but it will make them an ACTUAL political party instead of an ATM machine... and we'll be back to having an "opposition" party that we actually respect but disagree with.

Wow this comment is way too long sorry.