Daily Kos :: Comments Most Annoying Possible Outcome (predictions!!!)

disagree with your numbers (1+ / 0-)

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MooseHB

all of your sets suggest Obama needs to do better in NC than Hillary does in IN. An example:

Marginally Interesting for Clinton:
NC: Obama wins by 4-7 points
IN: Clinton wins by 9-11 points

Marginally Interesting for Obama:
NC: Obama wins by 12-16
IN: Clinton wins by 1-4

I'd go, in this marginal category, with equivalent wins. Obama by 5, Clinton by 10 is equivalent in "gosh-ness" to Obama by 10, Clinton by 5.

There's also no reason for Obama to have to win NC by 21 and IN by 4. Really, a 7 pt NC win plus any IN win for Obama and it's pretty much done.

by Shahryar on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:02:28 PM PDT
- I disagree (1+ / 0-)
  
  Recommended by:
  MooseHB
  
  Any win in IN would be big, but it wouldn't be fatal. Not for Hillary Clinton at least.
  
  by Elrod on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:08:03 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - I suppose (1+ / 0-)
    
    Recommended by:
    MooseHB
    
    It depends on what your definition of fatal is. If he won Indiana by a few thousand votes, less than 25k, I don't think she would drop out, but I do think we'd see an avalance of SD's to him and this race would start looking a lot like Huckabee-McCain post Feb. 5th.
    
    by safik on Mon May 05, 2008 at 10:18:53 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]

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