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View Diary: 2006 House picture (99 comments)

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  •  Kind of a Sparse List.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bree, brownsox

    Does CQ really believe there's a clear favorite in KY-04?  Or FL-22?  Or NM-01? Or WA-08? Or IA-03, IL-08, and TX-17 on our side?  By narrowing the list to only nine competitive races as this list does, it triggers the parties to respond in kind all too often, making the constant boo-hooing about "uncompetitive Congressional races" a self-fulfilling prophesy.

    •  Their lean category (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DelRPCV, bawbie, ivorybill

      means just that.  A very competitive race where one candidate is seen as a slight favorite.  If it were me, I'd have put FL-22 in the no clear favorite category, but the rest you mention I agree are lean toward the party holding the seat:

      KY-04: This is a very GOP seat that Lucas won in 1998 by being the perfect candidate against a horrible opponent in an open seat race.  He narrowly held the seat for three terms by the power of incumbency.  Now he is trying to oust a frosh GOP incumbent.

      NM-01: Madrid is the perfect candidate to throw at Wilson in a perfect year, but she, like Anne Northup (R KY-03) and Dennis Moore (D KS-03) seems to beat back whatever gets thrown at her.  I think Madrid pulls it out, but I'd still be hesitant to call this anything other than lean GOP.

      WA-08: Reichert is strong and Burner is still an unknown quantity.  Definite lean GOP.  This is the kind of seat we win with a wave and lose otherwise.

      IA-03: Boswell, like Wilson, is a survivor.  His health issues have not stopped him from campaigning entirely.  Definitely a lean Dem.

      IL-08: Bean has proved to be a strong campaigner, and she drew an opponent who's a nutjob.  The only way this race is NCF is if the lefty third-party challenge gains momentum.

      TX-17: Edwards has done everything humanly possible to solidify himself in this DeLaymandered district.  Remember, he was the one of only two of DeLay's 9 targets to survive 2004 (Turner retired; Frost, Sandlin, Lampson, and Stenholm lost to GOPers; and Bell and Rodriguez lost primaries; Doggett beat back a primary).  Rookie opponent Van Taylor has not particularly impressed.

      •  Why Do You Consider Reichert Strong? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DelRPCV

        Just curious.  Didn't he barely pull out a district that went for John Kerry in 2004?

        As for Boswell, I live in his district (which by the way, scarcely resembles the district he was originally elected in back in 1996).  Jeff Lamberti is his first top-tier opponent, likely to consolidate support in the increasingly Republican suburbs of Des Moines the way that Boswell's past challengers haven't.  I'm sweating for him.

        •  True enough (0+ / 0-)

          but Reichert is also a celebrity lawman (the man who brought down the Green River Killer).

          That has sway with everyone. Edward Brooke, a Republican AG, was  elected to the Senate from Massachusetts largely for catching the Boston Strangler.

          -8.38, -8.08. I'm not a Democrat because I wish the country could do better. I'm a Democrat because I know we can.

          by Arjun Jaikumar on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 08:24:06 AM PDT

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          •  Bleah. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            brownsox

            the man who brought down the Green River Killer

            yeah, after TWENTY FRIGGIN' YEARS.  They actually had the guy in custody in 1983, but they had to let him go because they screwed up the evidence.  Meanwhile during his tenure, the King County Sheriff's department went all to hell, with lots of revelations of criminal misconduct making the papers, oh right about now.

            Reichert didn't get nearly the support he should have received from this fairly Red district.  I blame mostly his Dem challenger, Dave Ross, who's a wonderful talk-show host but was a horrible candidate.  I listened to his show almost every day in '04 [now I listen to AAR], and I didn't even realize until AFTER the primary that he was running as a Dem!!  As I said, he's a great talk show host, because he respects his guests and lets them explain themselves, but that makes for an utterly vapid candidacy.  

            I'm counting on Darcy "Barn" Burner to run a much more aggressive campaign.  It shouldn't be hard given that Reichert's record in the last two years has been uninspiring at best.

            "I hear the voices" -- George Walker "Son Of Sam" Bush
            Darcy Burner for WA-08

            by FaithAndReason on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 10:19:14 AM PDT

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    •  Actually I look at the list differently (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dietznbach, bree, brownsox

      First look at the safe seats.

      Then look at the other 3 categories.

      I find a total of 22 D seats that are considered not safe, and 49 R seats that are not considered safe.

      I would like to think that all the R not safe seats can be turned into competitve races if the campaigns are run effectively.  With the current dislike for Bush, and the ability to tie most R candidates to him, winning 1/3-1/2 of those seats is possible, and in a real positive for D environment, maybe more.  And the more positive the D environment, the safer the current D seats become.

      Bush, so incompetent, he can't even do the wrong things right.

      by JAPA21 on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 07:48:30 AM PDT

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      •  I also think (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sillia

        you could add maybe five to seven Republican seats to the "not safe" category. Doolittle (corruption), Dreier, Kirk in IL-10, maybe Fortenberry in Nebraska, and a couple others. Tancredo, certainly.

        They'll be long shots, but they ain't money in the bank.

        -8.38, -8.08. I'm not a Democrat because I wish the country could do better. I'm a Democrat because I know we can.

        by Arjun Jaikumar on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 08:26:13 AM PDT

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        •  Oh how I would love to see... (0+ / 0-)

          Mark Kirk defeated.  He's a more effective campaigner than people realize and he is positioning himself as more of a McCain Republican than a Bushite these days.  His tactic in 2006 is to campaign against Congressional pork, and jump on the secure borders bandwagon (both issues work well in his overwhelmingly white, affluent district).  He's one Republican who is clever enough to win by running against his own party.  It will take a first-rate campaign to unseat him.  The only way to do it is to tie him early, cleverly and often to Bush, and immediately counter his efforts to market himself as independent.  Kirk's constituents are the rich, self-absorbed kind of Republican who don't want their kids in Iraq, not the evangelical snake-handlers who never learned enough math to count their offspring.  Bush doesn't play that well in Winnetka anymore.  Kirk's opponent needs to tie Kirk to the deficit and castigate him for every silly social conservative compromise he's been forced to make by his GOP handlers.  Budget deficits and religious nuts tend to freak out people in his district, so Daniel Seals needs to focus on them.

      •  In my estimation, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        brownsox, AmericanRiverCanyon

        there are fully 67 GOP seats not safe at this point:

        NH-1
        NH-2
        CT-2
        CT-4
        CT-5
        NY-19
        NY-20
        NY-24
        NY-25
        NY-26
        NY-29
        PA-4
        PA-6
        PA-7
        PA-8
        PA-10
        NJ-5
        NJ-7
        VA-2
        VA-5
        NC-8
        NC-11
        FL-8
        FL-9
        FL-13
        FL-16
        FL-22
        KY-2
        KY-3
        KY-4
        TX-22
        WV-2
        OH-1
        OH-15
        OH-18
        MI-8
        MI-9
        IN-2
        IN-3
        IN-8
        IN-9
        IL-6
        IL-10
        IL-11
        WI-8
        MN-1
        MN-2
        MN-6
        IA-1
        IA-2
        KS-2
        NE-1
        MT-AL
        WY-AL
        CO-4
        CO-6
        CO-7
        NV-2
        NV-3
        NM-1
        AZ-5
        AZ-8
        CA-4
        CA-11
        CA-26
        CA-50
        WA-8

        •  I assume no chance (0+ / 0-)

          at TX-32 (Pete Sessions, challenged by Will Pryor?).

          Probably fair. If Martin Frost couldn't win the district...

          -8.38, -8.08. I'm not a Democrat because I wish the country could do better. I'm a Democrat because I know we can.

          by Arjun Jaikumar on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 09:35:01 AM PDT

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        •  Three Longshot Additions.... (0+ / 0-)

          OH-02 (Jean Schmidt is so awful even a non-Hackett Democrat could conceivably topple her)

          MI-11 (there was some early buzz about Tony Trupiano vs. Thaddeus McCotter...has his star dimmed?)

          NE-03 (alot of buzz about Scott Kleeb in the last couple weeks....can't imagine a (D) winning THIS district, but it doesn't strike me as much more outlandish than NV-02)

          I read something today where the GOP is marginally nervous about ID-01. Lovely fantasies these make.

          •  If I had a next category, of bubble races, (0+ / 0-)

            it would include IL-15 (Tim Johnson vs. David Gill) and 4 open seats in hopelessly GOP districts where we have good, well-connected and/or well-funded candidates:

            NE-03 (Scott Kleeb)
            OK-05 (Patti Presley)
            CO-05 (Jay Fawcett)
            ID-01 (Larry Grant)

            I just couldn't see us ever winning any of them.  As for NV-02, it's actually much less GOP than any of the above 4; it gave Kerry 42% compared to CO-05's 33%, ID-01's 30%, NE-03's 24%, and OK-05's 36%.

            As for the other 2 you mention, as far as I can tell, Trupiano has done next to nothing since announcing and Schmidt will lose to McEwen in the primary if the OH-02 voters really think she's that bad.  None of the Dems running is much more than a name on a ballot.

            •  On Trupiano: (0+ / 0-)

              I live in the 11th district and am an officer of the Oakland County Democratic Party -- the district is split between western Oakland and western Wayne counties.

              As I am on the mailing list and am in the database of party activists in the district, it seems the bulk of the attention has been on collecting petition signatures for ballot status for Tony Trupiano. The filing deadline is May 16.

              Tony has been actively seeking media attention, albeit frequently national in scope. It was recently circulated about him appearing on Fox News Channel which sticks out in my mind.

              There had been a primary challenger from Oakland County, Ray Raczkowski, who has subsequently ended his bid and is exploring a state legislative race. Trupiano has been working on fundraising, but did not crack the $100,000 mark as of the last FEC filing.

              When I was at the DNC deal in New Orleans this past weekend (representing Michigan for the College Democrats of America), Donnie Fowler was talking up Trupiano to me.

              The 11th District is the most Democratic of the currently GOP-held seats. Thaddeus McCotter is not the most popular or well-received guy, either...

              www.polstate.com -- the Political State Report! Check it out!

              by Michael McGuinness on Fri Apr 28, 2006 at 04:27:29 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

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