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  •  Their lean category (3+ / 0-)
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    DelRPCV, bawbie, ivorybill

    means just that.  A very competitive race where one candidate is seen as a slight favorite.  If it were me, I'd have put FL-22 in the no clear favorite category, but the rest you mention I agree are lean toward the party holding the seat:

    KY-04: This is a very GOP seat that Lucas won in 1998 by being the perfect candidate against a horrible opponent in an open seat race.  He narrowly held the seat for three terms by the power of incumbency.  Now he is trying to oust a frosh GOP incumbent.

    NM-01: Madrid is the perfect candidate to throw at Wilson in a perfect year, but she, like Anne Northup (R KY-03) and Dennis Moore (D KS-03) seems to beat back whatever gets thrown at her.  I think Madrid pulls it out, but I'd still be hesitant to call this anything other than lean GOP.

    WA-08: Reichert is strong and Burner is still an unknown quantity.  Definite lean GOP.  This is the kind of seat we win with a wave and lose otherwise.

    IA-03: Boswell, like Wilson, is a survivor.  His health issues have not stopped him from campaigning entirely.  Definitely a lean Dem.

    IL-08: Bean has proved to be a strong campaigner, and she drew an opponent who's a nutjob.  The only way this race is NCF is if the lefty third-party challenge gains momentum.

    TX-17: Edwards has done everything humanly possible to solidify himself in this DeLaymandered district.  Remember, he was the one of only two of DeLay's 9 targets to survive 2004 (Turner retired; Frost, Sandlin, Lampson, and Stenholm lost to GOPers; and Bell and Rodriguez lost primaries; Doggett beat back a primary).  Rookie opponent Van Taylor has not particularly impressed.

    •  Why Do You Consider Reichert Strong? (1+ / 0-)
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      Just curious.  Didn't he barely pull out a district that went for John Kerry in 2004?

      As for Boswell, I live in his district (which by the way, scarcely resembles the district he was originally elected in back in 1996).  Jeff Lamberti is his first top-tier opponent, likely to consolidate support in the increasingly Republican suburbs of Des Moines the way that Boswell's past challengers haven't.  I'm sweating for him.

      •  True enough (0+ / 0-)

        but Reichert is also a celebrity lawman (the man who brought down the Green River Killer).

        That has sway with everyone. Edward Brooke, a Republican AG, was  elected to the Senate from Massachusetts largely for catching the Boston Strangler.

        -8.38, -8.08. I'm not a Democrat because I wish the country could do better. I'm a Democrat because I know we can.

        by Arjun Jaikumar on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 08:24:06 AM PDT

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        •  Bleah. (1+ / 0-)
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          the man who brought down the Green River Killer

          yeah, after TWENTY FRIGGIN' YEARS.  They actually had the guy in custody in 1983, but they had to let him go because they screwed up the evidence.  Meanwhile during his tenure, the King County Sheriff's department went all to hell, with lots of revelations of criminal misconduct making the papers, oh right about now.

          Reichert didn't get nearly the support he should have received from this fairly Red district.  I blame mostly his Dem challenger, Dave Ross, who's a wonderful talk-show host but was a horrible candidate.  I listened to his show almost every day in '04 [now I listen to AAR], and I didn't even realize until AFTER the primary that he was running as a Dem!!  As I said, he's a great talk show host, because he respects his guests and lets them explain themselves, but that makes for an utterly vapid candidacy.  

          I'm counting on Darcy "Barn" Burner to run a much more aggressive campaign.  It shouldn't be hard given that Reichert's record in the last two years has been uninspiring at best.

          "I hear the voices" -- George Walker "Son Of Sam" Bush
          Darcy Burner for WA-08

          by FaithAndReason on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 10:19:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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