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View Diary: 2006 House picture (99 comments)

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  •  In my estimation, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    brownsox, AmericanRiverCanyon

    there are fully 67 GOP seats not safe at this point:

    NH-1
    NH-2
    CT-2
    CT-4
    CT-5
    NY-19
    NY-20
    NY-24
    NY-25
    NY-26
    NY-29
    PA-4
    PA-6
    PA-7
    PA-8
    PA-10
    NJ-5
    NJ-7
    VA-2
    VA-5
    NC-8
    NC-11
    FL-8
    FL-9
    FL-13
    FL-16
    FL-22
    KY-2
    KY-3
    KY-4
    TX-22
    WV-2
    OH-1
    OH-15
    OH-18
    MI-8
    MI-9
    IN-2
    IN-3
    IN-8
    IN-9
    IL-6
    IL-10
    IL-11
    WI-8
    MN-1
    MN-2
    MN-6
    IA-1
    IA-2
    KS-2
    NE-1
    MT-AL
    WY-AL
    CO-4
    CO-6
    CO-7
    NV-2
    NV-3
    NM-1
    AZ-5
    AZ-8
    CA-4
    CA-11
    CA-26
    CA-50
    WA-8

    •  I assume no chance (0+ / 0-)

      at TX-32 (Pete Sessions, challenged by Will Pryor?).

      Probably fair. If Martin Frost couldn't win the district...

      -8.38, -8.08. I'm not a Democrat because I wish the country could do better. I'm a Democrat because I know we can.

      by Arjun Jaikumar on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 09:35:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Three Longshot Additions.... (0+ / 0-)

      OH-02 (Jean Schmidt is so awful even a non-Hackett Democrat could conceivably topple her)

      MI-11 (there was some early buzz about Tony Trupiano vs. Thaddeus McCotter...has his star dimmed?)

      NE-03 (alot of buzz about Scott Kleeb in the last couple weeks....can't imagine a (D) winning THIS district, but it doesn't strike me as much more outlandish than NV-02)

      I read something today where the GOP is marginally nervous about ID-01. Lovely fantasies these make.

      •  If I had a next category, of bubble races, (0+ / 0-)

        it would include IL-15 (Tim Johnson vs. David Gill) and 4 open seats in hopelessly GOP districts where we have good, well-connected and/or well-funded candidates:

        NE-03 (Scott Kleeb)
        OK-05 (Patti Presley)
        CO-05 (Jay Fawcett)
        ID-01 (Larry Grant)

        I just couldn't see us ever winning any of them.  As for NV-02, it's actually much less GOP than any of the above 4; it gave Kerry 42% compared to CO-05's 33%, ID-01's 30%, NE-03's 24%, and OK-05's 36%.

        As for the other 2 you mention, as far as I can tell, Trupiano has done next to nothing since announcing and Schmidt will lose to McEwen in the primary if the OH-02 voters really think she's that bad.  None of the Dems running is much more than a name on a ballot.

        •  On Trupiano: (0+ / 0-)

          I live in the 11th district and am an officer of the Oakland County Democratic Party -- the district is split between western Oakland and western Wayne counties.

          As I am on the mailing list and am in the database of party activists in the district, it seems the bulk of the attention has been on collecting petition signatures for ballot status for Tony Trupiano. The filing deadline is May 16.

          Tony has been actively seeking media attention, albeit frequently national in scope. It was recently circulated about him appearing on Fox News Channel which sticks out in my mind.

          There had been a primary challenger from Oakland County, Ray Raczkowski, who has subsequently ended his bid and is exploring a state legislative race. Trupiano has been working on fundraising, but did not crack the $100,000 mark as of the last FEC filing.

          When I was at the DNC deal in New Orleans this past weekend (representing Michigan for the College Democrats of America), Donnie Fowler was talking up Trupiano to me.

          The 11th District is the most Democratic of the currently GOP-held seats. Thaddeus McCotter is not the most popular or well-received guy, either...

          www.polstate.com -- the Political State Report! Check it out!

          by Michael McGuinness on Fri Apr 28, 2006 at 04:27:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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