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  •  What is the point of negative talk? (0+ / 0-)

    Here this guy Chico Town cares about this race enough to try and fund raise and get the word out... and vf2890 and Nathaniel Stone just shit on him.  I don't get it?

    First of all, every seat IS vulnerable as long as a challenger runs. I'm not saying that any of these three have the same chances as Ron Klein... but isn't that irrelevant?  And most importantly, isn't the real reason Klein is competitive because he has raised money.  Maybe if you guys didn't take a crap in the comments on this page, these three could raise some money too.  

    Secondly, you guys prove your lack of actual information in these districts when you don't know why Rual didn't run or why Alex is likely to never run again either.  

    Rual DID start a run against Ileana after Claude Pepper and had to drop out of the race.  Why?  

    Alex is an interesting possibility... but pretty unlikely.  He REALLY screwed up on the Elian Gonzalez stuff and most Democrats hate him.  That said, I do agree that IF he chose to run in 18... he could win.  But I have a feeling we won't see Alex run again.  Seriously, you should have seen him at the Senate campaign stops... Dems really hate him now.  

    Anyway, my question to you two is WHY?  Why come to this page and dump on it? It is exactly that kind of thinking that kills us. We can't win the lottery if you never buy a ticket. You can't win an election if you never even run a campaign.  

    Be supportive or comment somewhere else... That's my suggestion.

    •  Response... (0+ / 0-)

      I want to start by saying that I was not "shitting" on ChicoTowner. As a life-long resident of Miami, I was simply expressing by opinion on the political situation in these districts, particularly with respect to the history, trends, and possibilities of a Democratic win.

      I agree with your assertion that every seat is vulnerable. But I differ from you because the particular vulnerability of congressional seats is dependent on a number of local and national factors, which in effect result in giving Dems better chances in some seats in comparison to others. I have to say that I simply do not see a Gonzalez, Patlak, or Calderin win six months from now. With all due respect to them, they simply are not the types of candidates that can overthrow the existing power structure of South Florida.

      You go on to say that the reason Klein is competitive against Shaw is because of his cash flow.  That may be largely true, but you fail to see that the reason why he has the cash flow is because he's a GOOD candidate, with experience and political savvy, in a GOOD district. You cannot underestimate these essential characteristics. Even if the national scene is completely in our favor, putting up OK candidates, will only get us OK results.

      I wrote to chicoTowner, or as you so eloquently put it, "[I] took a crap on the comments in this page," because I want to see the best for the Democratic Party and the return of a Democratic majority. If a Floridian out there is thinking about giving money to a congressional candidate for '06, they will probably give the money to the candidate they believe will win. Comments on this page and the rest of the blogosphere will shape the view of this Floridian, specifically on the subject of who is the winning candidate. ChicoTowner believes that the people on this page should place their resources on those three average candidates, with minimal chances of winning. As I said earlier, average candidates will not win these seats. On the other hand, Klein has an excellent chance to defeat Shaw, one of the most powerful Republicans on the Hill. I simply believe that this election cycle, that Floridian, thinking about who he/she is going to donate money to, should support Klein because he's our best shot.

      In the long-term, as Democrats show their competence in office, integrity, and vision for America, we will make significant gains in these districts with the right candidates. Six months away from an election that could deliver both Houses to the Dems, throwing money at mediocre candidates is not an efficacious proposition.

      As for my comments on Raul Martinez in '89, it is, and was, clear to me that Martinez was the target of a political vendetta. Yet it is also evident that Martinez succumbed to political pressure, instead of fighting back. We may disagree, but it is not necessary to dismiss someone as not having actual information simply because his conclusions differ from yours.

      When speaking of Alex Penelas, I explicitly said that he had lost in the Democratic primary for Graham's Senate seat. You seem to believe that Penelas will never run again because he lost and "Dems hate him." Once again your analysis fails to see the political realities of these districts. In Miami-Dade, Penelas is not a tremendously polarizing politician. In fact, Penelas is quite popular in the Cuban American community that usually head to the polls every election. I think that if he doesn't run it will be because he's comfortable with his private position, not because of the politics of the Elian Gonzalez drama.

      Let me repeat that my criticisms of ChicoTowner's post are based solely on my belief that our resources are better placed in the hands of winning candidates, not because I want to be negative about our chances or because of a need to defecate on this blog. You may be right about never winning the lottery if we don't buy a ticket, but you better believe that when you go to the horse track, you'll be betting on the best horse, not the one who's listed at 275 to 1.

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