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View Diary: Presidential Approval Ratings and House Midterm Results (46 comments)

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  •  Great as usual... (0+ / 0-)

    I do wonder whether Congressional districts are more gerrymandered now in favor of the GOP, and whether this may diminish whatever role Presidential unpopularity might play?  

    •  That is the $64,000 question (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Luam, sele, AnthonySF, redcardphreek

      The GOP line-drawers in most of the biggest states (which have the most House seats) did a diabolically good job maximizing their party's seats.  Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan (which combined have 109 seats, about 1/4 of the House) all have very precise GOP gerrymanders.  In those 5 states, the GOP currently holds a 71-38 edge despite the fact that 4 of the 5 are really evenly balanced states).

      I have seen a credible argument that this will actually hinder the GOP this year because gerrymanders spread the drawing party's support artifically thin, so that if the level of support drops a lot of seats fall.  We'll see.

      •  Good point (0+ / 0-)

        This is where the Dems have some hope in Delays district because of the tight gerrymandering there.

        When can we expect your April update of House race rankings? I really enjoy your analysis on this in March.

      •  I hope you are right... (0+ / 0-)

        It does seem to me that the whole edifice has to start crumbling at some point.  It seems that the GOP can't indefinitely parlay electoral district manipulation of a very evenly split electorate into such large majorities, without something giving.  

      •  Credible Arguments (0+ / 0-)

        I do think that those arguments are quite credible, on the strength of logic alone.  In order for the trends to continue to correlate they will have to be.  We aren't going to win 40 seats off of them without a significant upheaval of the current gerrymander.  Certainly looking PA yields up several opportunities for picking off Republican incumbents.

        If that happens then perhaps it will show the potential danger to gerrymandering parties and put a stop to the current trends.

        ...in the name of a totalitarian ideology that hates freedom, rejects tolerance, and despises all dissent
        -G.W. Bush
        -7.00 -7.74

        by Luam on Thu Apr 27, 2006 at 07:27:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It has happened before (0+ / 0-)

        In 1992, Georgia Democrats still controlled their state, and set about to gerrymander Newt Gingrich out of office, using the typical tactics of shifting their voters out of their "safe" incumbents' districts and into Newt's district.  Unfortunately, the next election was 1994, and the Georgia Dems had spread their incumbents so thin to target Gingrich that the tidal wave took down 3 of their own, and Newt was re-elected.

        Unfortunately, we have very few viable challengers in the heavily gerrymandered states of Texas, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida.  The one exception is Pennsylvania, where we have a good shot at taking 3 seats that otherwise would still be Republican-favored.

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