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View Diary: May House Race Rankings (169 comments)

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  •  2 key points about IN-2 and CO-4 (0+ / 0-)
    1.  I noticed that in primary results on Tuesday in Indiana, Chris Chocola's opponent who spent no money and had no name ID at all took 30% of the vote against him.  That was a very surprising sign to me and suggests to me that Chocola has an underlying weakness that maybe ought to move that race up.

    For that matter, Indiana Republicans had a terrible night.  Chocola wasn't the only one to have an unknown opponent take nearly 30% of the vote in a Congressional primary.  And a couple of Republican incumbent legislators lost too, including the long-time state Senate Pres.

    1. CO-4 is a tough district, but I think you and others are seriously underrating it.  I read an article a while back (sorry no link) that said that Rahm Emmanuel commented that Musgrave had the single worst numbers of any Republican incumbent that he had polled against.    

    Plus, our candidate sounds really cool -- history of winning in Republican distict, a key player who helped pull off the upset where Dems won the legislature in 2004, former US National Team basketball player who also was a successful coach of a boys HS team.

    I really get the feeling people are sleeping on CO-4, especially with the way that state seems to be moving.

    •  CO-4 (1+ / 0-)
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      Nathaniel Ament Stone
      The problem with that seat is that, while Paccione will fare well in the district's urban areas, Musgrave will annihilate her in the rural precincts. The counties on the eastern plains of Colorado vote more like Western Kansas and Nebraska. The demographics in those counties are extremely punishing for any Democratic.

      Some of the most Republican counties in Colorado are in the 4th district. Counties like Kiowa, Kit Carson, Prowers, Baca, Bent, Sedgwick, Phillips, Washington, Yuma, Cheyenne, Lincoln, Crowley, Otero, and Logan provided Bush with devestating margins over Kerry. Most of these counties supported Bush with more than 70% of the vote. Bush even topped 80% in one or two of these counties. These counties are extremely hostile to Democratic candidates.

      Unless Paccione can prevent Musgrave from polling 3-1 margins or more in the district's rural areas, she is not going to win. She is going to have to hold Musgrave to around 55-60% of the vote there to win. I don't see her doing that.

      •  Maybe true (0+ / 0-)

        But rural areas across the country, and especially out West.  A couple of the counties you listed above even went Democratic last year in legislative elections, helping deliver Democrats that majority.  

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