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View Diary: May House Race Rankings (169 comments)

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  •  Why the Senate should change hands, but won't (0+ / 0-)

    I've posted about the article you're presumably referring to, which does a very good job of explaining why the Senate is in generally more likely to flip than the House:

    1. Senate seats can't be gerrymandered.  You're guaranteed to have the same district 6 years later.
    1. Because Senators are highly visible, with long terms, it's impossible for them to run and hide from their own records (unlike, ahem, my own Rep in WA-08, who's currently pretending he's not the worst Bushlicker in Congress.)

    As a result, a Senate incumbent is much more likely to be unseated in a "wave" year like '82, '94 or '06.  

    Also, for handicappers and race watchers (like Superribbie), Senate races are much more known quantities than House races.  As a result, predictions regarding whether the Senate will change hands are much more accurate than hopes & dreams about the House flipping.

    Given that we're almost certain that the Senate won't flip (Dems would basically have to win ALL the competitive R seats and lose NONE of their own), is the hope that the House will flip just a pipe dream?  

    No, because the biggest reason the Senate won't flip can be summed up with two words, those words being "Chambliss" and "Sununu".  Both of those Senate seats would be safe Dem seats if not for outright electoral fraud; thus the Senate would be 53-47, with a much better chance of flipping in November.

    The fact that the convicted architect of the fraud in New Hampshire was in direct contact with the head of the RNC tells you all you need to know about how bitterly the GOP will be fighting to hold on to the House this fall.

    "I hear the voices" -- George Walker "Son Of Sam" Bush
    Darcy Burner for WA-08

    by FaithAndReason on Thu May 04, 2006 at 11:48:00 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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