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View Diary: May/June dKos Straw Poll Results (311 comments)

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  •  Well... (1+ / 0-)
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    ...that question's been answered a lot on dKos lately.

    Basically, he's already done it once and his positives are even better now. Meanwhile, the negatives on the Republicans are even greater.

    ...The Precinct 134 Blog: Focusing on local politics in Chandler, Arizona and the surrounding community.

    by George in AZ on Wed May 24, 2006 at 04:58:40 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Done it once... Against who? (1+ / 1-)
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      That's right: Mr. 29%.  A candidate that resononated with people would have crushed Junior-- in the EC and in the popular vote.  Admittedly, Gore did better than Kerry, but that says a lot more about Kerry than about Gore.

      •  The poll you quote is a bullshit poll (1+ / 0-)
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        it has 25% undecideds and 8% "haven't heards".

        Gore's favorables are in the high forties (and unfavorables in the low forties), accordging to polls from 2003 and 2004.

        Fox news has a recent poll that puts them at 41% favorable (and 45% unfavorable), but it being Fox News, I am writing for a less righwing leaning polling firm to produce Gore's favorbales/unfavorables.

        •  Latest Fox News Poll (May 14-16): favorables (0+ / 0-)

          Poll link

          Favorability ratings (Fav/UnFav/Unsure/Never heard of):

          Rudy Giuliani 64 15 15 6
          Hillary Clinton 50 42 8 0
          John McCain 49 25 18 7
          John Kerry 41 44 14 1
          Al Gore 41 45 12 1
          Jeb Bush 28 45 21 6

          The table from here.

          We should take any Fox News Poll with a grain of salt. I'll show with an example why shortly.

          •  Potential matchups (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KTinTX, Geotpf

            Potential matchups:

            Rudy Giuliani 49
            Hillary Clinton 40
            Other/Don’t know 12

            John McCain 46
            Hillary Clinton 42
            Other/Don’t know 13

            Jeb Bush 35

            Hillary Clinton 51
            Other/Don’t know 15

            Rudy Giuliani 50
            Al Gore 37
            Other/Don’t know 13

            John McCain 48
            Al Gore 36
            Other/Don’t know 17

            Jeb Bush 33

            Al Gore 50
            Other/Don’t know 17

            Political affiliation of respondents to the poll:

            Democrat 41

            Republican 32
            Independent 21
            Other 2
            Refused/Don't Know 3

            Tables courtesy of The Next Prez blog.

            •  Those are pretty bad numbers (0+ / 0-)

              ...for everybody on our side, and good for everybody on thier side (except Jeb Bush, who isn't running).  And Gore and Hillary have high name recoginition, so that's not the problem here.

              Of course, I'm hoping somebody like Brownback gets the Rep nomination.  Guillani is a moderate and McCain is a "maverick", and don't represent what the American public thinks about a more "normal" Republican.

              •  GOP: party discipline, Dems/Inds: free thinking (0+ / 0-)

                that's why they seem to give in consider numbers to McCain/Giuliani, where as GOP is mainaining partyline alignment strongly. That explains the numbers.

                But, McCain is damaged goods after schmoozing with Bush on the war and pretty much all legislation. Giuliani is not experienced where it is needed.

                I think Gore will pull ahead of both after some exposure to the public. In fact, Gore is probably what we badly need to ward off McCain and Giuliani.

              •  McCain will be formidable (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Distaste for Dissent

                Don't underestimate John McCain.  He has done a good job over the years of positioning himself as the straight-talking maverick reformer.  The Campaign Finance Reform bill adds to his luster.

                It's all an act, the guy's off the deep end conservative and unpredictable to boot but the public doesn't pay that close attention beyond the PR spin (witness the election of W). With McCain, the R's get a "reformer" who can run "to clean up the mess in Washington", a war hero not a politician, yada, yada, yada. In my humble opinion, I think he will be very scary to run against in '08 if he can persuade the neolithic right of his party to support him in the primaries.

                It's time for us to move beyond Bush because he will be past tense by 2008 and the R's can blame W for everything and try to duck responsibility. The Dems need to do some very early preemptive messaging to reposition McCain and also attack the radical Republican zealots in general for driving this country into the ground. If we aren't smarter about the message war, it will be another very depressing eight years ahead.

          •  Fox News: Obligatory Pinch of Salt (0+ / 0-)
            Here is why:

            Gore's favorables in Fox News poll took a mysterious dip immediately after he gave his speech opposing the Iraq War on 9/23/02.

            Polling Report Link

            Gore's favorables around 9/2002: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics

            Date: favorables/unfavs/can't say/never heard of

            1/04   47/44/9/-

            12/02   42/45/13/-    

            10/22-23/02 37/50/13/- LV

            9/23/02: Gore gives his Iraq War Opposition speech

            8/6-7/02 51/38/11/-

            4/16-17/02   44/44/11/1    
            12/12-13/01 47/40/13/-

            There is no conceivable or plausible reason why Gore's unfavorables should shoot up from 38% to 50% in the span of two months, given that he was hardly seen on mass media. His war speech was given to a limited audience. Judge for yourself the underlying dynamics here.

      •  Er...he wasn't Mr. 29%... (1+ / 0-)
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        ...back in 2000.  He was the darling of the Republicans, then.  A common-sense-talkin', 2-term Texas governor that had high favorability.  It took us a few years to realize just what a disaster he would become.

        And Gore was dealing with the fallout from the Clinton impeachment.  Which is a situation that has completely turned 180 degrees, now.

        ...The Precinct 134 Blog: Focusing on local politics in Chandler, Arizona and the surrounding community.

        by George in AZ on Wed May 24, 2006 at 07:28:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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