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View Diary: Pissed in the 50th (240 comments)

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  •  Strategy - Think About Resources Expended In This (4+ / 0-)

    From a political strategy perspective, the most interesting aspect of this race is the decision of the RNC and the RCCC to throw vast amounts of resources against Busby as compared to the decision of Democratic national organization to put very little resources into the race.  I know for certain that the RCCC is over $2 million in negative ads and the RNC has at least 70 high-level operatives on the ground.  In addition, Republican organizations have sent out numerous mailings falsely attacking Busby.  The DCCC and the DNC have done little in response in terms of actually expending resources.

    Will the Republican investment be worth it?  Obviously, Republicans think a loss in the Calif. 50th would be a self-effectuating harbinger of a Democratic surge in November.  They are betting that a successful defense here will turn the tide, or at least abate the growth in public sentiment that Republicans are vulnerable in 2006.  The risk is huge with this bet.  If they lose, no matter how close, there is no way to spin it and there is no way to salvage any sort of positive message from the massive expenditures.

    Democrats, on the other hand, have been comparatively risk-adverse in this one.  The strategy is understandable.  We have spent little and can a claim something of a moral victory if Busby does better in the district than Kerry did in the 2004 general – anything above 45%.  On the other hand, if we lose and it’s close, Democratic leadership could further its perception of incompetence – if only we would have spent a bit more in the 50th and won, we could have created a political tidal wave.    

    Personally, I think the national organization should have come in a little stronger for Busby.  We need to start winning close ones like this and I think we could have matched the Republicans dollar for dollar and still been able to claim victory if Busby got more than 45%.  

    In any case, these are the type of strategy decision we must start considering as part of the netroots community.  At this point in the election cycle, these decisions are far more important than academic arguments over policy direction. Furthermore, we can pressure Democratic leadership to spend resources in races that are winnable.  
       

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