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  •  If McCloskey gets 30%, Pombo's in trouble (2+ / 0-)
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    vcmvo2, KenBee

    And so far (still early) McCloskey's got 32%, and Pombo 61.7%.  Chuck Todd (Hotline) says if McCloskey gets 40%, it's a sign of a national "wave".  With only 22k votes reported so far, it's way to soon to tell.

    But, on the other hand, turnout was pretty low in San Joaquin County, the most conservative of the four counties parts of which comprise CA-11.  Turnout higher in Alameda & Contra Costa counties (at 14.5 & 17.2% v.s 10.9 for San Joaquin).  The fourth, Santa Clara, only had 9.2% turnout.  (Assuming I'm reading these numbers right.)

    I'm guardedly, tenatively optimistic.  Nearly 40% of Republican voters decided not to vote for Pombo.  Nearly a third of them voted for McCloskey.  Big caveat: only 22k votes reported so far.

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