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View Diary: CT-Sen: Q-poll's eve (275 comments)

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  •  I'm betting all the turnout models underestimate (0+ / 0-)

    the Republican voter's ability to pick the lesser of evil (from their POV) in the General Election i.e. Leiberman at the last moment. I think Lieberman may get a 7-10+ point boost in the GE from that.

    Votes from invalid 3rd party candidates are ultimately cast for the "lesser of evil" in a close two way race, but they always poll for the 3rd party till the end. For example, Nader in 2004 was polling around 5-7% at various points. He only got only a small fraction of that in the real election.

    I know a lot of people here consider any skepticism about Lamont to be sacrilege. That's also pretty silly imo.

    •  Here's an estimation (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      theran, porktacos, nasarius, donailin

      If Lamont beats Lieberman in the primary, he'll beat Lieberman in the general election.
      If Joe loses the primary and runs as an independent, he'll have to run against Lamont again. Only this time, Lamont can bring up how he defeated Lieberman in the primary so as to make him look the better of the two and to undermine the confidence of voters in Lieberman who couldn't even beat Lamont the first time around. Also, Lamont will be able to use Joe's defection against him, questioning why Joementum cut and ran from the Democrats when things got tough, why he'll do his all to back the Iraq War but won't do the same to back the political party that got him to where he is today.
      Personally, I can't say whether I care whether he wins and loses as an independent (well, I'd prefer he loses so his support for the war won't be there in the Senate anymore); The important thing is that he gets thrown out of the political party which he has been so poorly supporting. He should have ran as an independent from the get go, as that is basically what he is.

      •  All those arguments (0+ / 0-)

        are incredibly one sided and bordering on wishful thinking or naiveté.

        For example, no Lamont won't be running against Lieberman again, because the GE has about 10x or more voters participating and is representative of the whole state not just the Democratic minority. It’s a whole different ballgame to the voters with an almost entirely different set of voters.

        Also, Lamont winning the Dem primary by a hair, and on the outside, is more bad than good for him.  Republicans and moderates can easily argue quite powerfully that Ned  was so far left that he could barely win the primary, hence he’s not representative of the center, hence Joe is more representative of the larger public.

        To say otherwise is just hypocritical.

        For example, if a Rt Wing hawk Republican barely beat out a more moderate Republican in the Rep primary in a historically Republican state, if that state also had a lot of moderates, unaffiliated, and Democrats, they would have no problem joining to support the moderate Republican 'loser' to win the GE.

        •  Wrong (0+ / 0-)

          You are ignoring that Lieberman losing the primary is going to change the dynamic of the general election. Lamont winning and Lieberman losing WILL have a psychological effect on the voters, not to mention the candidates. In America, nobody likes a loser, even if it's the loser of a partisan primary.
          You also make no sense in claiming 'Lamont won't be running against Lieberman again'. If Lieberman enters the general election as an independent, he'll be running against the Democratic nominee Ned Lamont! How can you NOT grasp that? All your accusations of 'wishful thinking' and 'naivete' don't hold much weight when you can't even grasp the simple fact that Joe and Ned will be running against each other again if Joe runs as an independent.
          Also, you seem to think the Iraq War is only a Democratic issue. Polls show that most of America is against the War, not just the Democrats. Lieberman's support of the Iraq War (the key issue Lamont has used to surpass Lieberman) will still remain unpopular in the general election.

    •  Ya, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Al Rodgers, xtrarich

      Ned Lamont .. who the hell is he? Right.

      Go back to Lieberman HQ and tell them you have failed again, that your little attempt to deflate the esprit de corps still didn't quite cut it. Because no one is buying your swill here.  

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