Skip to main content

View Diary: CT-Sen Q-Poll: Lamont Leads Lieberman 51 - 45 (201 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Possible but not probable (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    peraspera

    The undecideds would have to break for Joe almost completely for him to even get within the MOE.

    DON'T VOTE FOR THE GUY WITH LIE IN HIS NAME, VOTE FOR NED INSTEAD!!! -8.50, -7.59

    by DisNoir36 on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 06:08:24 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  no (4+ / 0-)

      within MoE alone Lieberman could be ahead by one.  Remember MoE applies to both numbers, so Lamont could be down 3.5% and Lieberman up 3.5%, so the property way to see it is that Lamont is almost for certain ahead if he's 7% ahead. he's only 6% ahead.

      # Members: 98,814 (as of 10:00am 8/3). Projected Date of 100,000th member registration: August 11, 2006
      http://www.bloggingintheblue.com

      by FleetAdmiralJ on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 06:11:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Michigan Paul, peraspera

        My math is bad.

        But taking the MOE into account you can also say that Ned's drop from last week's poll to this week is a reflection of that MOE.  He dropped 3% from 54-51.  

        You could also argue that Ned could finish with 54.5%.

        I think we're all getting a little nervous.  It's normal.  We're in the final 24 hours, the home stretch so to speak.

        DON'T VOTE FOR THE GUY WITH LIE IN HIS NAME, VOTE FOR NED INSTEAD!!! -8.50, -7.59

        by DisNoir36 on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 06:25:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  And that's only a 95% confidence interval (0+ / 0-)

        But the MOE of the poll is based strictly on sample size.  It is not based on the questionability of the likely voter model which introduces a ton more noise.  With Lamont up 14 or even up 10 I wasn't so worried but now he's only up 6 and it doesn't take a statistician to see those trend lines.

        -Fred

        Democrats *do* have a plan for Social Security - it's called Social Security. -- Ed Schultz
        -3.13 -6.05

        by FredFred on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 08:15:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  well based on the last two polls (0+ / 0-)

      that is EXACTLY what they're doing.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site