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View Diary: CT-Sen Q-Poll: Lamont Leads Lieberman 51 - 45 (201 comments)

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  •  no (4+ / 0-)

    within MoE alone Lieberman could be ahead by one.  Remember MoE applies to both numbers, so Lamont could be down 3.5% and Lieberman up 3.5%, so the property way to see it is that Lamont is almost for certain ahead if he's 7% ahead. he's only 6% ahead.

    # Members: 98,814 (as of 10:00am 8/3). Projected Date of 100,000th member registration: August 11, 2006

    by FleetAdmiralJ on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 06:11:01 AM PDT

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    •  You're right (2+ / 0-)
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      Michigan Paul, peraspera

      My math is bad.

      But taking the MOE into account you can also say that Ned's drop from last week's poll to this week is a reflection of that MOE.  He dropped 3% from 54-51.  

      You could also argue that Ned could finish with 54.5%.

      I think we're all getting a little nervous.  It's normal.  We're in the final 24 hours, the home stretch so to speak.


      by DisNoir36 on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 06:25:18 AM PDT

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    •  And that's only a 95% confidence interval (0+ / 0-)

      But the MOE of the poll is based strictly on sample size.  It is not based on the questionability of the likely voter model which introduces a ton more noise.  With Lamont up 14 or even up 10 I wasn't so worried but now he's only up 6 and it doesn't take a statistician to see those trend lines.


      Democrats *do* have a plan for Social Security - it's called Social Security. -- Ed Schultz
      -3.13 -6.05

      by FredFred on Mon Aug 07, 2006 at 08:15:55 AM PDT

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