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View Diary: CT-Sen Q-Poll: Lamont Leads Lieberman 51 - 45 (201 comments)

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  •  Nooo, please, no 3-way numbers! (1+ / 0-)
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    gogol

    A 3way poll could affect strategic voters, but most likely would help Joe more than NEd.

    If it showed Ned beating Joe in a 3-way, then the poll would help Joe get some votes from people who really want Joe and would have just "sent a message" with a Ned primary vote.  It might also motivate some independents to turn up and vote for Joe.

    If it showed Joe ahead, it might motivate Ned supporters a bit more, but it's hard to imagine it making as much of a difference.

    If it showed the Republican with any kind of a foothold, then risk-averse Democratic voters would swing hard for Joe, the seasoned politician with strong independent and GOP support.

    So bottom line: Lamonsters should be glad there is no recent threeway polling out there today.  Such polling would be obsolete anyway, once hte primary results are announced.  That will change hte whole dynamic.  If Ned wins big enough, it will force Joe to give up his independent bid.

    •  Eh (0+ / 0-)

      I don't think it would make too much difference. I guess it could signal voters if Joe was losing the three way, that they don't have to vote for him just to have him stick in the Democratic Party.

      The only real difference i think it would make is that if it showed Ned with a 5+ lead, it would put more pressure on Joe to drop out.

      Besides, I am dying of curiousity!

      •  3-way later this week (0+ / 0-)

        I don't follow these things, but I'm sure there will be a 3-way poll that goes into the field 5 minutes after Lieberman's announcement if Lamont wins and Lieberman announces he's staying in the race.

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