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View Diary: Sweeney reelect below 50% in NY-20 (32 comments)

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  •  You're giving up to early (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    devtob, shpilk, Mahler3, Team Slacker

    It's not even Labor Day - political junkies may be paying attention to the race, but most voters won't even start considering the specific candidates until September rolls around.  That's why most of the polls are of generic ballots instead of specific races; no one is focused enough for a poll of a specific race to mean much.

    Gillibrand has the money to run a real campaign and she's been getting good attention as she goes around the district.  As more people start following the candidates in the race, Sweeney's numbers will drop in line with his reelect number.

    Look, I'm not saying it's going to be easy.  Challengers start behind because incumbents have such high name recognition, and we'll have to work like hell to make that up and win.  But Gillibrand's campaign is in good shape, and Sweeney's 48% reelect is a sign of that.

    •  No, she gave up on us (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BENAWU

      A lot of us at the grassroots tried to give her help and advice early on...

      Gillibrand preferred to listen to her hired bigwig helpers -- hand-me-downs from Hillary and County officials who had terrible track records of losing election after election.

      Instead of embracing successful activists, she surrounded herself with inexperienced preppy kids, and sycophants just wanting to get in line for a job on the off-chance she won.

      Gillibrand had opportunities to define Sweeney early, but with just 10 weeks to go is still virtually unknown and hasn't laid a glove on an opponent who ought to be down for the count by now.

      I've been invovled with a lot of campaigns, and have heard a lot of "pros" say the campaign doesn't really start until after Labor Day. Some folks I've opposed believed that conventional wisdom... And we beat them in part by getting our message out months in advance of Labor Day.

      The Labor Day line is Shrum-esque hokum. Let's see the plan from Gillibrand and then maybe I'll reconsider.

      "Animals are my friends--and I don't eat my friends." (G.B. Shaw) My diaries [-6.75, -8.45]

      by Hudson on Tue Aug 29, 2006 at 03:51:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  how can I convince you to reconsider (0+ / 0-)

        We'll need all the help and experience we can get - so I'll shoot you an email and keep trying to convince you :)

        But Labor Day as the start of the campaign comes from practical experience.  Summer in general and summer vacation disrupts people's schedules.  For all the canvass operations I've seen, there's a big difference between before or after Labor Day.  We're putting grassroots campaigns together in races around the state, and before and after Labor Day has always made a difference in getting volunteers out.  I've been talking to different DFNY groups, and they're seeing the same thing.

        Really, I can't say it enough, it's early in the campaign.  I hope you'll get back in.

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