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View Diary: MexiKos 9/25: Secret Meeting Held by US-Mex-Can Officials, Business Exec's (46 comments)

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  •  Must see (Spanish lang): TV interview on this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PatriciaVa

    La Jornada's OtraTele posted an interview from Telemundo on this topic, focused especially on the drive to 'privatize' (into carefully selected hands) the national oil company of Mexico, Pemex.

    •  "Divesting" Pemex to preserve "Social Services" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      el cid

      Thanks for the link, El Cid.

      Rogelio Ramirez (AMLO's chief econ advisor) has an op-ed in today's El Univeral, in which he desribes the impact of the US$ 10 drop in oil prices on the contry's fiscal picture.

      He posits that it will negatively impact revenue by up to 2% of GDP.

      Link and except below.

      What I haven't heard (doesn't mean someone hasn't said it) is the following.  Let's say that oil falls another US$ 10, and the government is forced to choose between instituting a capital gains tax (to offset the lost oil revenue) or "divesting" PEMEX.

      My point is the following.  If oil continues to plummet (again, I believe that one year from now, oil is more likely to be at 85 rather than 50 a barrel), don't be surprised if the argument is made that PEMEX must be sold to "preserve social services."

      Of course, the "social services" endangered with a steep drop in oil prices are the cushy high-level government jobs, which would make even Bush cabinet officials blush.

      Treasury secretaries making over US$ 200K a year.  The president of the Supreme Court makes over US$ 500K a year.  I can go  on and on.

      By Mexican standards, high-level US government officials are WOEFULLY underpaid.

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      http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/...

      Petróleo y finanzas públicas
      Rogelio Ramírez de la O
      25 de septiembre de 2006

      El precio del petróleo ha caído 10 dólares por barril en unas cuantas semanas, lo que de mantenerse todo el año próximo representaría casi 1.0% del PIB, tan sólo por la venta de exportación. Para la venta total y por lo tanto para el ingreso del sector público, el impacto podría ser entre 1.5% y 2% del PIB, dependiendo de lo que pase con los precios domésticos.

      Siempre se puede especular sobre el movimiento de precios y también sobre su dirección al alza o a la baja. Sin embargo, para un gobierno cuyo ingreso presupuestal depende en 36% de ingresos petroleros (promedio del período enero-junio de este año), la naturaleza especulativa de movimientos de precios no debe ser excusa para ignorar sus implicaciones y no tomar decisiones antes de que la caída ocurra.

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      •  Evil Futures Betting System (0+ / 0-)

        We need to have something like systematic polls just to predict future evil plans to see how well we score versus the usual knuckleheads who get published.

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