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View Diary: NV-02: The Cowgirl Candidate (94 comments)

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  •  so we take the seat... (2+ / 0-)
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    brownsox, ormondotvos

    Just curious, if we take the seat, what's the chance we hold it for more then a term?  MyDD had a post about all these lean-red seats that we might take this time around, but will be really hard to hold.

    I understand long term, changing the map is important.  But I think we may be setting our selves up for a lot of strong challengers in 08 that could hurt our presidential chances.

    Of course, the other side of that coin is Hacket, who ran and changed the map in less then a term.  So maybe I'm just too nervous.

    •  They might be hard to hold (9+ / 0-)

      but that's a worry to postpone until Nov. 8.

      "I have a philosophy about elections. I believe issues divide and values unite."--Gov. Brian Schweitzer

      by Joan McCarter on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 01:45:52 PM PDT

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    •  I read that post (3+ / 0-)
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      Meteor Blades, Sopiane, fgentile

      and it gave me pause as well...

      But after thinking about it, I disagree with its thesis.  If we can grab some red areas, then in upcoming elections we can concentrate all our efforts into A)holding onto those seats, and B)consolidating power in the blue areas.  The longer Dems hold on to power in Red areas the harder they will be to unseat.  And the people who live in those areas will find out, "hey, these people aren't so crazy after all."

      I think the MyDD post's point was that we need to consolidate the blue areas first, then move to expand into red areas.  But this supposes incremental change.  I think it's more likely we will have bursts of progress, followed by periods of staving off erosion, followed by bursts of progress.

      I think 06 will begin this process with a nice big burst.

      •  It's the Risk strategy (1+ / 0-)
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        You build on the areas you already have while going after the new ones. Once you have them you wash rinse and repeat. Sure it takes a while, sure you won't just get everything all at once but it keeps you from being spread too thin.

    •  Duh. Incumbent advantage? (2+ / 0-)
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      tylerh, Clairegg

      Humanity's niche is its own culture. We change our world as it changes us. Evolution or devolution? -7.63,-3.28

      by ormondotvos on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 01:55:26 PM PDT

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    •  Just think about (1+ / 0-)
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      all the Republicans who were elected in blue districts who managed to get re-elected time and again (CT comes to mind). Voters really have to be fed up with us in 2008 to have all the new Representatives voted out after just one term.

    •  Like someone else said, (0+ / 0-)

      Incumbents have all the advantage.  Not only that, but I'll bet that a lot of RedStaters will come to like the dems if they can make significant changes to things like healthcare.  A lot of rural people don't have it and they are not exactly roling in money, so universal healthcare would be a big asset to them.  Even if we don't get something like that, just fixing MediCare will go a long way - I don't know about the demographics of Nevada, specifically, but I'd be willing to wager that there is a relatively older population there.

      Like my brother before me, I took a rebel stand - The Band

      by Clairegg on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 02:04:15 PM PDT

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    •  It happened with the GOP in 1994 (1+ / 0-)
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      They seemed not to mind when we took some historically Democratic seats back in 1996.

      We did that with the former seats of Ted Strickland, David Price, Maria Cantwell, Lynn Schenk, Herb Klein, Dan Rostenkowski and Jack Brooks, to name a few.

      We took back even more in 1998.

      Didn't matter for the Republicans, who were able to consolidate their gains.

      "I have powers! Political powers!" -Homer Simpson

      by Arjun Jaikumar on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 02:10:13 PM PDT

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