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View Diary: MexiKos 10/15/06: Off Duty Soldiers Assassinate Oaxacan Activist (18 comments)

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  •  AMLO would enact Clinton's ProGrowth Policies (2+ / 0-)
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    walkshills, miguelmas

    With respect to your question re: AMLO being recognized as the lawful victor, it depends on the outcome of the 06 and 08 elections.

    The Democratic Party is less inclined to erect a wall, on both the congressional and executive levels.  Therefore, if the Dems take over the House in three weeks, I don't beleve that the fence will be fully funded, relative to what would occur if the GOP held the House.

    I also believe that an AMLO presidency would not depend on immigration as much as the RightWing PRI/PAN have over the last 24 years.

    El Cid, on a per/capita basis, the Mexican economy has grown at a rate of 0.6% a year since 1982.  Therefore, you have the immigration "problem."

    I believe that AMLO would implement many Clinton-like economic policies, which would kick-start the Mexican economy, and neutralize, to a HUGE extent, the need for Mexicans to leave their homeland.

    AMLO gets it, economically speaking, while Calderon and his Rightwing cronies, don't.

    •  Well, actually I was asking about U.S. policy (2+ / 0-)
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      walkshills, miguelmas

      Not AMLO's policy.  But the US would perhaps have been much more likely to crack down on Mexican in-migration had the U.S. leadership anticipated a liberal-left government.

      Remember, they would have started to undermine an AMLO government even before he took office.  And, just like Republicans here blame everything on Clinton even though they've had absolute power for 6 years, the pundits in Mexico would have blamed everything bad on AMLO.

      •  Democratis would Support AMLO; GOP would Not (0+ / 0-)

        El Cid, again, it depends on who has the power.

        Please recall that when Governor Dean and Xavier Bacerra travelled to Mexico last year, they gave their press conference in AMLO's WarRoom.  Also, about fourteen months ago, Villaraigosa publicly invitied AMLO to give the Sept 15 Grito en Los Angeles (the IFE did not allow him to travel to the US, however)

        While I have no doubt that Republicans would attempt to undermine AMLO's government, I also believe that the Democratic Party would assist him in every way possible.

        •  Not sure I agree (1+ / 0-)
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          miguelmas

          My unfortunate awareness of US foreign policy suggest that most times the policies of Democrats with regard to Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and Latin America are quite parallel to Republican policies, just usually a bit less bloody but similar in character.

          I agree, in fact, with those who argue that recent Latin American achievements in economic independence have been helped by the fact that the US has been entangled in Iraq and has expended very little attention and energies toward Latin America.

          Generally as the US involves itself more in Latin America, the effects become more and more negative.

          This is not an insult or conspiracy theory, it's just the old-fashioned realization that for most of the last century the US has completely dominated Latin America and the US foreign policy establishment would rather that continue.

          So I don't see a Democratic Party which would start favoring Latin American populism.  I would in fact have expected the US Democratic Party to oppose Lopez Obrador generally, because what he favors is Mexican development even when this is at the expense of certain greedy U.S. corporations.  And those U.S. corporations are much more important to U.S. politicians than is the fair and just development of the Mexican economy.

          However, this is only my interpretation and intuition, it is not a law written in stone.

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