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View Diary: Hastert Vigil: Dead Man Talking (120 comments)

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  •  what's your call? (0+ / 0-)

    DEMOCRATS are so confident of decisively recapturing the US House of Representatives next month that they have begun targeting newly vulnerable seats in the Republican heartland.

    The aggressive strategy to win a second tier of Republican seats — until recently considered beyond their grasp — has delighted many Democrats. But it increased fears among others that the party is becoming dangerously overoptimistic before the midterm elections on November 7.

    Go for it or play it safe?

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Tue Oct 24, 2006 at 07:02:57 PM PDT

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    •  No such thing as "safe" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DWSUWF
      And yes, we're dangerously overoptimistic - but we're as dangerous to them as we are to us.

      Our adversaries are more capable, more organized, more unscrupulous, mroe determined, better at choosing their battles and compartmentalizing their efforts. They have some good targets.

      We have a huge number of rookies in key positions, and they are making rookie mistakes down the stretch. (Don't ask me which and what.)

      Our recent poll gains are volatile, unconsolidated, and could fall back and crush us.

      We are rushing to buy ad time in markets where there's no ad time left to buy.

      And we are stil living off their mistakes -- not our own tradecraft, or any great reservoir of genuine voter affection.

      We go for it. Expand the field, press the advantage, hope for the best ... but we're not so strong anywhere that we can pull much money out of won races to feed underdogs (while they can pull funding if need be).

      None Dare Call It Stupid!

      by RonK Seattle on Tue Oct 24, 2006 at 07:36:55 PM PDT

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      •  interesting (0+ / 0-)

        Safe is a reative term. We are just as you describe; they are making a lot of mistakes for "professionals". But they've got advantages we don't, and they do know how to use them.

        So, pressure is good however we can mount it. This is a wave, and iraq is going to make it bigger, not smaller in the next two weeks.

        Their defenses are still very strong, especially in the Senate (TN, MO and VA will be tough nuts to crack whatever the polls say). The House is in reach, with lots of too close to call races. And this year, we're not depending on "new" voters.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 04:13:31 AM PDT

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        •  Expect them to mount counterattacks ... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DemFromCT
          ... in selected districts. The districts will be strategically chosen, the attacks will be scientifically developed.

          These will test our campaigns' abilities to understand the voters, understand how the opposing message works, and deliver timely and effective responses.

          Some of our campaigns are overconfident, based on numbers moving their way during the bread-and-butter phase of the air wars. Some of them will demonstrate less than zero ability to reponse on point and on deadline at clutch time.

          If the anti-Republican groundswell is big enough, it won't matter. If the tide turns the other way, you could see Karl Rove on camera with a shit-eatin' grin.

          The netroots, BTW, won't be in the arena where these battles play out, and they probably won't know how to read Wednesday morning's box scores either.

          None Dare Call It Stupid!

          by RonK Seattle on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 07:21:06 AM PDT

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          •  but someone else will (0+ / 0-)

            and we'll report on it. Let's see how well it works for Santorum who "plans to target future ad buys in outlets "watched by voters who are more engaged" and more likely to vote (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). "

            Our guys in the House will be less well positioned. MO has Michael J Fox and the stem cell intitiative. TNhas the best Dem campaign this cycle. VA will be interesting.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 11:39:59 AM PDT

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