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View Diary: IL-14th Poll Shows Laesch only 4 pts behind (80 comments)

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  •  Link to Poll (9+ / 0-)

    It was announced at a local meeting by a state organizer. Also it was announced that an internal poll by Hastert's people showed similar results because they immediately stepped up their mailings. I've liven in this district for over three decades. I've never seen Hastert campaign as hard as he is this time. I believe he is scared.

    •  Please find a link at least to a report (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DMiller, Steve Singiser

      or local blog talking about the likelihood of a close poll, based on these things that have been announced or observed.

      Otherwise, your diary really doesn't tell us much.

      •  in his/her defense (7+ / 0-)

        this isn't entirely about the poll (though I second your request for a link if at all possible).

        But it's been clear for a while now that Laesch is within striking distance, and I think treesfieldssky raises a couple worthwhile questions about the race.

        Why has media coverage been so scant?

        Where the hell is Obama? And Durbin and the DCCC. It's not cool for the Illinois bigshots to do nothing for a competitive race in their own backyard.

        •  Further defense of the diarist (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Thom K in LA, cosette, venatrix, llbear

          The most recent poll was on October 10 by a GOP outfit, showing a 10 point lead for Hastert.

          3 weeks is a long time.

          The only way to ensure a free press is to own one

          by RedDan on Wed Nov 01, 2006 at 09:22:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  media coverage (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          curmudgiana, treesfieldssky

          my guess... the lack of coverage is because no one in the media actually thinks hastert could lose this race. it just never occurred to anyone in the MSM that there's a race here. no national polling to follow. and hastert isn't releasing his polls, so there's nothing to write about.

          oh boy, what a story if, no when, laesch pulls this off.

          I wouldn't mind turning into a vermilion goldfish. --Henri Matisse

          by isis2 on Wed Nov 01, 2006 at 10:55:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Come on (7+ / 0-)

        I agree that he should state outright that he doesn't have a link, but that doesn't mean we should discount it. I bet if I dropped numbers from one of the races I've covered without a formal citation, most people would accept it. I'm inclined to believe that this guy's correct in what he's saying.

        Deny My Freedom
        "Inconvenient truths do not go away just because they are not seen." -Al Gore

        by PsiFighter37 on Wed Nov 01, 2006 at 09:25:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not saying s/he is not telling the truth as (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          s/he sees it.  But it's purely anecdotal.

        •  I don't fabricate numbers (9+ / 0-)

          I'm reporting what was stated by a professional at an open meeting. It was not a statement from the Laesch campaign and it was not a dream I had--nor am I someone who would fabricate a story. I have better things to do with my time than make-up numbers. Either the press pays attention or not it doesn't matter to me, because what matters is taking place on the streets in the door-to-door work and on the phones--and in the hearts and minds of the voters in this district.

          •  I was supporting you (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DMiller, llbear

            No worries. :)

            Deny My Freedom
            "Inconvenient truths do not go away just because they are not seen." -Al Gore

            by PsiFighter37 on Wed Nov 01, 2006 at 09:36:11 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Me, too (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              treefieldssky is a great volunteer for John Laesch.  I've heard great things about this volunteer's commitment - but I think the poll is a bit off.  I like my numbers better.

              John Laesch - soooo much better than the other guy

              by llbear on Wed Nov 01, 2006 at 09:44:58 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Kind of sketchy, but they have a 4 pt spread here (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                This seems kind of sketchy--"unconfirmed reports" and all--but for what it's worth, I got this from another blog (link below):

                IL-14. Fighting Dem Vet John Laesch is challenging Speaker of the House Denny Hastert. Hastert was stonewalling from day one and still maintains he did not know in advance despite statements by Reynolds (above) and Boehner (below) that he knew about Foley's predatory behavior for at least a year and did nothing. He is holding onto his House position and seat and has had Bush help him campaign, but for the first time in a good while he is actually campaigning. John Laesch is an aggressive campaigner and frequent contributor to diaries on Daily Kos. He has gone from an underdog and "Quixotic" candidate to a competitive challenger with polls showing most people believe Hastert knew earlier and engaged in a cover-up. This is a race that no one even thought was even a possible win. Help bring this unprincipled neocon Hastert down. This race has still not quite made the grade as a top tier race, but has the makings of such as the tide continues to turn in our favor. And John Laesch believes he can take down the speaker. Unconfirmed reports are that the Hastert campaign poll last weekend are that the race had closed to a 49% - 45% race.  The Laesch campaign has not been unable to confirm these numbers, but they do know that other indicators would suggest the gap has closed significantly.



    •  Constituent Dynamics (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      llbear, treesfieldssky

      who are showing crazy-good numbers for Dems (projecting 240-193 two tied) have it a 10 pt race (52-42). That was Oct. 8-10 - about one week after Foley resigned.

      4 points isn't unreasonable 3 weeks later, though there should still be a reference to the results somewhere.

      -6.00, -7.03
      "I want my people to be the most intolerant people in the world." - Jerry Falwell

      by johnsonwax on Wed Nov 01, 2006 at 09:39:57 PM PST

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      •  People waited about 12 days for Denny (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        venatrix, treesfieldssky

        to 'clarify his actions'.  He never did.  Then the local press finally paid attention to the fact that he won't be Speaker in the next Congress.  No Speakership = no pork.  The issues have nothing to do with it.

        John Laesch - soooo much better than the other guy

        by llbear on Wed Nov 01, 2006 at 10:43:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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