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View Diary: NC-11: Heath Shuler / Charles Taylor Debate Friday (6 comments)

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  •  Good News/Bad News (0+ / 0-)

    The Zogby poll released yesterday has good news and bad news on this race.

    The bad news is that Shuler lead was cut so that it is now inside the margin of error -- his 51% to 40% lead is now 48% to 43%.  Also, as mentioned here, Taylor has been a strong closer in previous races pulling out of tight spots usually by launching a whispering campaign in the final days.

    The good news is that Shuler still leads and his loss of three points and Taylor's gain of three points from the earlier poll are shifts inside the first polls margin of error.  That Taylor, a 16 year incumbent is well below 50% at this point in the game still suggests a lot of ground to make up in a short period of time.  Add to that the fact that Taylor has never had an opponent like Heath Shuler and never had to run in year like 2006.  (I know there is also some question as to how reliable Zogby tends to be, although I don't know the specific complaints.)

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