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View Diary: Senate Electronic Market Predictions (13 comments)

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  •  You have to win all the 60-40 races (1+ / 0-)
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    There's nothing really off about the contracts.  Senate control contract is priced much lower because of the odds of winning all the 55-45 races.  Basically, both Webb and McCaskill have to win, and they're barely above a coin flip.  

    If you play Texas Hold'em, you might know that a pair is favored by about a 54-46 margin over two overcards if you both go all-in preflop.  But the odds of you winning two pair vs. overcard confrontations in a row are something like 30%.  Here, the Dems not only have to win both slightly-better-than-coin-flip races, but also run the table on the races where they are solid but not prohibitive favorites: Montana, Maryland, Rhode Island, New Jersey.  I'm kind of worried about Montana and Maryland myself.  

    So right now, the price on that contract is correct -- it's roughly $30.  That said, I'm pretty happy, having bought the Tradesports Dem Senate takeover contract three months ago when it was at $14.  Hopefully a few my Tradesports bets will come in to cover the campaign contributions I doled out this cycle.  Go Jim Webb!

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