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View Diary: [update] BREAKING: Bogus VA voter calls point to Allen campaign (107 comments)

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  •  re:I've Been Extrapolating Votes (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wanderindiana, kraant

    using cnn.com's tallies by VA city and county.  I'm ignorant of expectations precinct by precinct, so I've simply looked at the cities and counties with fewer than 100% of precincts reporting, assumed the percentages of support for Webb and Allen hold, and rough-estimated how many votes each should pick up.  I'm not counting how many total votes each should pick up, but rather looking at their current margins and extrapolating how much those margins would grow in places where votes remain to be counted.

    Look:  Allen stands to pad his lead by about 510 votes still to come in Gloucester, Harrisonburg, Prince Edward, Virginia Beach, and Waynesboro.  

    Webb stands to cut into that lead by 11,100 votes coming out of Arlington, Charlottesville, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Isle of Wight, Loudoun, Martinsville, Petersburg, and Richmond City.  Note that 25% of Petersburg precincts have yet to report.  Same with 33% of Richmond precincts.

    At the time I made these calculations, Allen's lead stood at 6914 votes, meaning that if my numbers are close, Webb would pull into the lead by some 3776 votes!

    Also, Sterling Hayden pointed out at RaisingKaine that the Fairfax website states that absentee ballots have not been counted.  Hell, that means I've yet to weigh in officially on this race.  I have no idea what percentage of Fairfax voters voted absentee, but it was an extremely easy process and could be done by mail or in person--with generous office hours for voting.  More than 311K votes have been cast in Fairfax, so even if absentee votes account for 5% of total votes in my fair county, Webb's 60-40 margin would lead us to expect him to gain another 3000 votes on Allen once those votes are counted.

    This race is most definitely not over.

    •  re:Update (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wanderindiana, kraant

      As others have noted below, Webb is now leading.  According to CNN.com, the surge came primarily from Petersburg and Richmond, and Webb picked up margins of 9290 votes.  

      According to my extrapolations, Allen will only pad his margin by 510 votes in cities and counties where he's leading.  But Webb still stands to gain about 2900 votes.  Absentee votes are beyond by extrapolating ken.

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