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View Diary: Dems gain in self-identification (193 comments)

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  •  yeah, but what's the rest? (2+ / 0-)
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    curtadams, agnostic

    50-47 = 3 point advantage
    55-37 = 18.

    That's 15 points in three months, five points a month. That's an awful lot. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it seems to me there's more to the story than that. Maybe I'm just cynical after six years of inescapable dumbness.

    For comparison's sake....

    SUSA MO Senate
    Bond 53-38
    McCaskill 50-40

    MO Gov
    Blunt 37-57

    MO Pres ratings
    Bush 37-60

    For all 3 polls, party ID is listed as 29R-39D-25I, MoE 4.1%, taken 1/12-1/14 (600 adults).

    So I'm not sure if that tells us much, because Gallup was pushing leaners and SUSA evidently isn't....if we take SUSA's 25% I and split that in the same proportion (39-29), we get 57-36 (leaving 7% undecided, I guess), which is pretty close to the Gallup #s.

    So maybe Gallup's right, there has been a huge swing here. Maybe it's just Bond's numbers that are confusing me, or the disconnect I'm seeing between Bond's and Claire's. Blunt and Bush are right about where I expected them to be, and they line up pretty well with the party #s. But the Senator ratings, not so much.

    Dreams of empire die hard; empire, that goes away quickly.--Juan Cole

    by nota bene on Wed Jan 31, 2007 at 06:47:37 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

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